Brexit

Remainers will win. The powerful always do

Before the referendum, I predicted behind closed doors that even if Leave improbably prevailed, Britain’s political establishment would ensure that for all practical purposes the UK stayed in the EU. ‘So Britain wouldn’t be called a “member” anymore,’ I supposed to my husband, ‘but, you know, an “associated affiliate once removed” or something.’ I might as well have said, ‘We’ll join a customs partnership.’ I’ve never been more depressed by being right. The drift seems unmistakable. The white flag is up on the single market for goods, the customs union, the ECJ; Hammond has been equivocal about fishing rights; cracks are appearing in opposition to free movement — and this

In praise of Labour’s Brexit rebels

So this is what a principled politician looks like. They can be hard to spot these days, but last night, in parliament, we saw four of them in action. Kate Hoey, Frank Field, John Mann and Graham Stringer. Four Labour MPs who, despite knowing they would get flak from both Corbynistas and centrists, despite knowing the Stalinist sections of left-wing Twitter would shriek for their deselection, despite knowing they would be paraded online as ‘Tory stooges’ whom all good Labourites have a duty to despise, nonetheless voted with their consciences and rejected an amendment to Theresa May’s trade bill that could have kept Brexit Britain entangled in a customs union

Government’s not so cunning plan for an early summer break is scrapped

The government suffered a defeat in the Commons this evening. The good news for Theresa May is that it wasn’t the one No 10 were so worried about. Although Philip Lee’s amendment for European medicines regulatory network partnership succeeded, the Tory rebel amendment calling for the government to join a customs union if it does not agree a free-trade deal with the EU was narrowly defeated, at 307 to 301. This means the government can breathe a little easier for now. They can still claim to agitated Brexiteers that they are negotiating a deal which would allow them to strike international trade deals. As for Brussels, May told the Brexit

Michael Gove’s Brexit regret is much too little, much too late

Not the least extraordinary thing about the campaign to leave the European Union is that it turns out no-one was in charge of it. Things just happened and decisions were just made without the oversight or knowledge of the most senior politicians whose support for the project was reckoned, with some reason, to be crucial to its essential success.  If Boris Johnson gave the Leave campaign a popular – and populist – presence in the nation’s television studios, Michael Gove gave it a certain intellectual credibility amongst the – admittedly small – percentage of the electorate that worries about such things. And with good reason: Gove’s intelligence, if not always

Why is Theresa May so dependent on Angela Merkel?

Why do the British turn to the Germans in their moments of European trouble? It never works. When Jacques Delors conceived his single currency plans, Mrs Thatcher over-relied on Karl Otto Pöhl at the Bundesbank to squash them. Dr Pöhl preferred to side with Helmut Kohl. When Britain was struggling to stay in the ERM in the late summer of 1992, the Major government put faith in what they thought were German promises to help them out. These failed to materialise. When David Cameron sought a new EU deal which would win him the 2016 referendum, he placed his greatest hopes in Angela Merkel, who offered him concessions so feeble

Business should now get behind ‘no deal’ with the EU

Both the Brexit and and Foreign Secretaries have resigned. The Chequers agreement, if that is the right word, looks about as enduring as the latest relationship on Love Island. The Prime Minister is staggering so uncertainly from one option to another that even Donald Trump’s advice over the weekend seemed almost sane. The UK’s strategy for leaving the European Union, insofar as we ever really had one, is in tatters. Big Business will no doubt respond to that with calls for a softer and softer Brexit simply in the hope of getting something in place before March next year. We will hear a lot about cliff edges, and the dangers

Theresa May’s big problem? Her ‘passion for what’s workable,’ says Tory MP

Andrea Jenkyns is regarded by many Tory MPs as a Brexit champion – after the Conservative MP for Morley pre-emptively quit last month as a PPS to fight for Brexit. Since then Jenkyns has become one of the loudest voices calling for a new tack from No 10 in the negotiations. However, Mr S can’t help but wonder whether Jenkyn’s latest intervention didn’t land quite as she had intended. In an interview with the Telegraph, the Tory MP attempts to criticise the Prime Minister for not being a true Brexiteer – not because she’s a Remainer but because her passion is… ‘what’s workable’ ‘It is time for her to go.

Why Tories are tempted by Justine Greening’s second referendum

When an influential centre-right Tory, who has served in May’s cabinet, says that the prime ministers’ Brexit plan is the “worst of both worlds” and a “fudge I cannot support”, it is clear beyond doubt that the PM’s most important policy is in trouble. For Justine Greening, the proposal to follow EU rules for the production and consumption of goods and food, and to collect tariffs for the EU, is neither properly leaving the EU or a rational “softer” Brexit. What she says she fears, in an article for the Times, is parliament rejecting May’s plan, but finding it completely impossible to force through a more satisfactory relationship with the

Will Theresa May make it to the summer recess?

Will Theresa May make it to the summer recess? It’s just over a week until Parliament breaks up for the long summer break yet the obstacles the Prime Minister must overcome before then are rapidly increasing in size. After May finally showed her Brexit hand, she has seen a growing Eurosceptic rebellion which shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Over the weekend, her former minister Steve Baker accused No 10 of being part of a secret plot to render the Brexit department a ‘Potemkin structure to [distract from] what the Cabinet Office Europe unit was doing for the prime minister’. Meanwhile, Jacob Rees-Mogg offered a memorable soundbite –

Sunday shows round-up: Theresa May’s hard-headed Brexit

Theresa May: People voted from the heart, but I must be hard-headed After an outbreak of discontent in the Conservative party over her Chequers Brexit plan, the Prime Minister took to the Andrew Marr Show to defend her policy. The plan led to David Davis and Boris Johnson quitting the cabinet, and there are rumours that more ministers could follow in the coming days. There is also the possibility that May could face a vote of no confidence in her leadership at any point. Marr asked her if the Chequers Agreement was letting her party and the country down: AM: There are an awful lot of Conservatives…and members of your

Theresa May fights for her premiership – and reveals Trump’s advice

Theresa May appeared on the Andrew Marr sofa with her premiership at its most vulnerable point since the disastrous snap election. After a week of frontbench resignations, a US Presidential visit that resulted in humiliation, a growing eurosceptic rebellion and a downturn in the polls, May belatedly tried to sell her Brexit blueprint to the public. The Prime Minister began by attempting some honesty – she told Marr that she did accept that the position agreed at Chequers last Friday was different to what was set out in her Lancaster House speech. However, she insisted that the change was minimal and that competitive free trade deals were still possible –

Matthew Parris is right: Theresa May’s Brexit plan is terrible

On Brexit and the visit of Donald Trump, there has not been a better article than this by Matthew Parris in The Times today. I make him right on every point and, given that we view Brexit from polarised positions, that makes it a little worrying. But the so-called ‘yellow paper’ really does give us the worst of all worlds and makes us, as he rightly says, a satellite of the EU. We might take some issue with his concluding sentence, I suppose, regarding becoming a satellite of the USA. But everything else is bang on. Why don’t the Remainers in general see that?

Three things that Theresa May can do to try and avert a political disaster

If Theresa May gets a Brexit deal and it can’t get through parliament, then we are heading towards the most dangerous political crisis in living memory, I say in The Sun this morning. For I very much doubt that the 80 percent of MPs who are opposed to no deal, would let Britain leave without an agreement. But disregarding the result of the referendum—either by abandoning Brexit or leaving only to make Britain, effectively, a non-voting member of the EU—would cause a democratic shock. 17.4 million voters would be, understandably, furious about having their vote ignored. So, what can Mrs May do to avert this disaster? Well, I think there

On Brexit, the Germans are against us

Why do the British turn to the Germans in their moments of European trouble? It never works. When Jacques Delors conceived his single currency plans, Mrs Thatcher over-relied on Karl Otto Pöhl at the Bundesbank to squash them. Dr Pöhl preferred to side with Helmut Kohl. When Britain was struggling to stay in the ERM in the late summer of 1992, the Major government put faith in what they thought were German promises to help them out. These failed to materialise. When David Cameron sought a new EU deal which would win him the 2016 referendum, he placed his greatest hopes in Angela Merkel, who offered him concessions so feeble

The EU is terrified that Britain will make a success of Brexit

Now that the EU white paper is out we can see that terms like vassal state, colony and homage were well chosen and that Donald Trump’s doubts are valid. The commitment to a common rule book that includes a pledge to enforce state-aid rules is effectively promising not to try too hard to be economically successful. And yet state aid has hardly been mentioned in the debate. Freedom from the EU straitjacket gives us the chance to show how an independent people can create prosperity but instead of seizing the day the Government is worried about disrupting integrated EU supply chains, which may involve a car component being made in

Tory minister: Boris Johnson would make a terrible PM

It’s all kicking off in the Conservative party. After a week of Eurosceptic rebellion, resignations and in-fighting, Theresa May has been dealt another blow to her Brexit position in the form of President Trump. The US President has used an interview with the Sun to criticise the UK Prime Minister and appear to rule out a UK/US trade deal. He also appeared to open the door to backing a successor for May – telling the paper that Boris Johnson would make a great prime minister. Alas not everyone agrees. Margot James – a DCMS minister – has taken to social media to say that, actually, her colleague would be ‘terrible’:

Jacob Rees-Mogg adds to Theresa May’s woes

Poor old Theresa May. Donald Trump’s Brexit comments have overshadowed the president’s long-awaited visit, but even after Trump departs for the golf course, her troubles won’t go away. Jacob Rees-Mogg offered an unwelcome reminder of that on the Today programme this morning, saying that he thought Trump had a point. Rees-Mogg said that all the president had done is spell out what was actually in the Brexit white paper. Take a look, he said, at this passage in the Brexit white paper: For once, it seems, Trump has actually done his reading. In his comments to the Sun, Trump made it clear that Theresa May’s Brexit plan would mean the

Watch: Nigel Farage on winding up Team Trump ahead of UK visit

President Trump’s official UK visit has turned into a nightmare for Downing Street after the US President used an interview with the Sun to suggest Theresa May had wrecked Brexit and a UK/US deal could be off the table. The comments are a gift to those Brexiteers pushing for May to change course and alter her Brexit blueprint. So, is it pure coincidence Trump has taken the side of May’s Brexit critics? Mr S only asks after Nigel Farage last night set the cat among the pigeons on BBC’s This Week. In an interview with Andrew Neil, the Ukip leader suggested that he had been winding up Trump and his team

On good authority

Forget David Davis, Boris, the cabinet, the commentariat. It’s time to concentrate on the big picture and the central question: where does final authority lie in the UK? The ancients grappled with this problem too. In the direct, radical democracy of 5th and 4th c Athens, it lay with the male citizens meeting in assembly. Appointed officials were under constant scrutiny by the assembly, and could pay a high price for failure (including execution). Indeed, any citizen who proposed a course of action to which the assembly agreed but which turned out to be a disaster could be impeached for ‘deceiving the people’. It was no defence to say that