Brexit

So the EU (Withdrawal) Bill has been delayed once again, with Andrea Leadsom confirming a ‘pause’ to MPs this morning. The legislation is so weighed down with hundreds of hostile amendments that the whips daren’t take it anywhere near the Commons, and are trying to work on compromises with the many different groups of rebels in order to avoid a series of embarrassing defeats. Leadsom told the Chamber that ‘out of respect for this House, the Government are doing justice to the very significant concerns that have been raised about procedures and policy in the EU (Withdrawal) Bill, and it will come back to the House just as soon as the Government are prepared to do justice to the new clauses and amendments that have been tabled by Members’.

Ah yes, our top Brexit negotiating team... Sack Boris! Sack Spreadsheet Phil! Don’t bother sacking Theresa because she’s already had the real P45 from her colleagues as well as the joke one from the prankster; she just hasn’t been asked to leave the building yet. That leaves David Davis as the last man standing but there’ll be clamour for him to go too if deadlock persists, as seems likely despite this week’s talk of ‘acceleration’. So who should we send to the table next? Last week I had the fun of chairing an audience with (Lord) Digby Jones, the irrepressible former CBI chief and trade minister, whose latest book Fixing Business recalls that he was ‘thrilled’ by the referendum result in June last year.

Theresa May needs to invite the Cabinet down to Chequers to thrash out the government’s position on Brexit, I say in The Sun this morning. Remarkably, the Cabinet have never had a proper discussion about what the final deal with the EU should be. One senior Cabinet Minister tells me that ‘The million dollar question is the trade-off between regulatory compliance and market access and we haven’t had that discussion yet’. This failure to talk is frustrating Cabinet Ministers, breeding distrust and contributing to the current break down of discipline within the government. As the policy isn’t decided yet, ministers keep trying to push it this way or that.

Just when the Brexit talks were beginning to look humiliating for the UK, the position has begun to be reversed. The absurd EU negotiating framework has stretched the patience of the British side to close to breaking point and preparations are at last being made for the possibility of no deal with the EU. Australians with decades of experience in trade negotiations with the EU tell us that the EU always bargains ferociously and that the only sensible response is a tough one. A negotiating bottom-line of no-deal should have been the British position from the start but going along with the EU’s self-imposed constraints has at least exposed just how difficult the EU can be.

The outlook for UK productivity is hardly encouraging. The Office for Budget Responsibility is suggesting only anaemic growth over the next five years while a recent survey by the ONS points to the lag between the UK and most of its G7 peers. Before we lament our lot, it is worth considering some of the differences between the UK labour market and those of its contemporaries. UK labour force participation is very high and unemployment is low. This would illustrate that the UK has been successful in getting as many people as possible into productive employment, which is not the case in most European countries.

Oh dear. After Theresa May refused to say three times in an interview with Iain Dale on LBC whether she would back Leave in a second EU referendum, the Prime Minister has provoked the ire of some in the Brexit camp. But Brexiteers can take heart that May's comments are positively eurosceptic compared with those of her First Secretary of State. Damian Green has been touring the television studios this evening to talk about the government's race disparity audit. Also on the agenda is Brexit. First, the former Remain campaigner told Channel 4 News that he would vote Remain if another EU referendum was held. Now, he has just appeared on Newsnight where he appeared to double down on his comments.

Most of Theresa May’s statement today was simply a reiteration of what she had said in Florence. But we did get clarity on one crucial point. In answer to a question from Jacob Rees-Mogg, Theresa May explicitly accepted that the European Court of Justice would have a role during the transition. She said that she hoped it would be replaced at some point by a new dispute resolution mechanism. But at the beginning of the transition, the ECJ will be the arbiter. Now, there will be Brexiteers who don’t like this; Jacob Rees-Mogg’s question was seeking an assurance that this would not be the case. But if the transition is to see the UK stay inside the single market in everything but name, it is hard to see how this can be avoided.

Alan Duncan caused a stir on Tuesday when he claimed that one of the reasons for the Brexit vote was working class voters throwing 'a bit of a tantrum' over immigration. It's fair to say that the government minister's comments have gone down like a cup of cold sick with Brexiteers. But is Duncan really one to lecture on Brexit tantrums? Mr S recalls that Duncan was accused of throwing a tantrum of his own during the EU referendum. After Duncan declared himself a Remain-er, Vote Leave’s Matthew Elliott said the Conservative MP had planned to back Brexit but switched to the other side at the last minute after his request for a position on their board was refused.

The well-known saying goes, ‘there is nothing to fear but fear itself’. This certainly should be the mantra of Brexit. Disruptive as it might be, Brexit should be the reset button for an enterprise economy, a bright new future of growth and entrepreneurialism, open and free markets – in effect a ‘New Model Economy’ – but few are making the case for this. Certainly, the government isn't. When I became director general of the British Chambers of Commerce over six years ago, one of my first media interviews led me to say that I thought there was no political party in the UK that truly represented business. By that I meant enterprise and entrepreneurialism.