Boris johnson

Ministers are waking up this morning to a big Tory upset in North Shropshire. In the by-election sparked by the Owen Paterson sleaze row, the Liberal Democrats have won the seat from the Conservatives overturning a majority of 22,949. In what has long been regarded as a safe seat for the Tories (they have come out on top in the area for almost 200 years), the Liberal Democrats won 17,957 votes with the Conservatives managing just 12,032 votes. This gives the Lib Dems a majority of 5,925. Labour came third with 3,686 votes. This result clearly will be tied to Boris Johnson's leadership and the difficult time the Prime Minister has had over the past month The result is striking for several reasons.

This morning, it’s the Tory party versus the scientists, with a number of Conservative MPs seeing red following Wednesday’s downbeat press conference on the Omicron variant. As the number of Covid cases soars, Boris Johnson has been accused of a lockdown by stealth – after he appeared alongside Chris Whitty in a press conference urging caution over Christmas. The Chief Medical Officer suggested people ought to prioritise the social events they most care about. This morning Whitty is giving evidence to MPs where he has suggested it is too early to say whether further restrictions will be needed. In all of this, no one is quite sure where the Prime Minister sits None of this is landing well with the Tory party.

What was the point of tonight's Covid press conference? Boris Johnson didn't have anything big to announce, other than a very dubious-looking new lectern telling people to 'Get Boosted N0w', with the 0 in the 'now' looking a lot like a Hula Hoop. His purported focus was on the doubling rate of Omicron, and to announce today's record high number of positive tests (78,000). A cynic might argue that calling a press conference on the vaccination programme is distracting from the self-inflicted political mess Boris is currently wallowing through. Given people are already queuing round the block for their booster jabs, it doesn't seem as though the message about Getting Boosted Now really needs a, well, boost.

This evening feels eerily familiar to anyone who remembers the meaningful votes of Theresa May’s premiership. The Tory rebellion on the Covid measures is bigger than expected; the rebels are claiming to be the mainstream of the parliamentary party; the cabinet ministers loyalists to the PM are blaming the whips office; there are mutterings about how long this can go on for. There is, of course, one crucial difference: thanks to Labour, Boris Johnson won tonight’s vote. But it is clear that if he wants to tighten restrictions further, he will be reliant on Starmer’s party’s support in doing so. Relying on the opposition to get their business through is never a comfortable place for a Prime Minister to be.

It's a topsy turvy world when your friends and allies do you all kinds of damage and then your enemies and detractors accidentally ride to the rescue. But that’s what's going on in the life of Boris Johnson. His lax approach to the conduct of his own circle is a major factor in his popularity slump. Whether that be backing Owen Paterson, wilfully being taken in by partying Downing Street staffers or over-indulging his wife’s focus on animal rights, utopian environmentalism and support for the Stonewall agenda.  Yet now the cavalry has appeared over the brow of the hill and it is made up of people who wish to bring him down. But they serve only to remind the Tory tribe why it turned to him in the first place.

It's hard to recall a more brutal set of Sundays for Boris Johnson. Today's papers are dominated by 'partygate' in one form of another, with the most worrying splash undoubtedly being the Sunday Mirror. It features an image of a Downing Street staffer dressed in tinsel taking a picture of Johnson appearing on a Zoom call to host a Christmas quiz, under the headline: 'Taking us for fools (again). Held on 15 December 2020, it came at a time when London was in Tier 2 which banned indoor mixing between households. The paper reports that the quiz was supposed to be virtual – but many staff (one source says around 70) stayed in No 10, huddling by computers, conferring on questions and knocking back fizz, wine and beer.

Is the ball about to come loose at the back of the scrum? Though an imminent defenestration of Boris Johnson is still just about odds-against, the chances of him leading the Tories into the next election are certainly receding. Should a leadership contest be required as early as next year it is already clear who the two leading candidates would be. The Chancellor Rishi Sunak will face off against the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss for the right to define yet another new Tory era. Truss is a total rookie in a great office of state, having been in post for just a few months. As someone yet to mark his second anniversary as Chancellor, Sunak is hardly a seasoned statesman either. But there is nobody around the Cabinet table who eclipses these two media performers.

Boris Johnson may be celebrating the birth of a baby daughter but that doesn't mean the pressure on him is eased. Instead, the Prime Minister is fighting on three fronts going into the weekend. The first is the alleged Downing Street parties with more claims emerging that there were several events. While cabinet secretary Simon Case is investigating, it's already looking tricky for key Downing Street staff, with ITV reporting that Downing Street director of communications Jack Doyle gave a speech and handed out awards. While No. 10 figures suggest a speech is a pretty regular occurrence, the real issue with the claims is that Doyle is the person who will have been in charge of the communications over the party claims — and the No. 10 line is no such party occurred.

There was nothing but gloom about the Omicron variant at yesterday’s No. 10 press conference. But with reporters preoccupied with last year’s Christmas parties, no one thought to bring up a statement by Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the WHO, who earlier told reporters that there is ‘some evidence that Omicron causes milder disease than Delta, but again it’s still too early to be definitive.’  You don’t want to make decisions before you have good evidence, but if it does turn out that Omicron is a milder disease, won’t the government’s efforts to suppress it with travel bans and restrictions be counter-productive?