Birth rate

In 1980, two American academics made a bet. Julian Simon, professor of economics at the University of Illinois, predicted that the prices of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten would fall over the coming decade. Paul Ehrlich, professor of population studies at Stanford University, predicted that prices would rise. What Simon and Ehrlich were really betting on was the future of humanity – specifically, how many souls could the good ship Earth carry without running aground? By 1980, the global population had seen a period of enormous growth: doubling between 1800 and 1930 to reach two billion people, and then doubling again to reach four billion by 1975. Every sign

As the collapse of birthrates accelerates across the developed world, even our language is struggling to keep up. Over nine years of demographic research, I’ve resorted to coining my own vocabulary just to describe what’s unfolding. ‘Birthgap’, for the widening gulf between generations – too few young to support too many old. ‘Yesterlands’, for once-thriving communities now quietly hollowing out. ‘Retronomics’, for the slow yet continuous un-ravelling that follows demographic decline, as nations are forced to retrofit their economies to fit their shrunken societies. Lately, I’ve been searching for another missing word – this time, to capture the invisible sense that a society still believes in its own tomorrow. The

Last week the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released its State of World Population report. According to the Guardian: ‘Millions of people are prevented from having the number of children they want by a toxic mix of economic barriers and sexism, a new UN report has warned.’ Dr Natalia Kanem, executive director of UNFPA, said: ‘The answer lies in responding to what people say they need: paid family leave, affordable fertility care and supportive partners.’ Nonsense, of course. Does Africa (4.1 births per woman) have better family leave and fertility care and more supportive partners than Sweden (1.4)? The reason for UNFPA’s counter-intuitive findings is simple. They have not ‘found’

I am delighted to report that some £800,000 of taxpayers’ money is to be spent ‘remediating’ the works of Robert Louis Stevenson to show what a racist bastard he was. 70 per cent of Irish mums say they would stay at home to look after their kids if given the opportunity I assume the decision was taken because, as a nation, we are absolutely awash with cash at the moment and need somewhere to dispense of it. This project, funded by the quango UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), will be carried out at Edinburgh University. I hope that, aside from clobbering Stevenson for having been born during a different time