Stephen J. Shaw

Stephen J. Shaw is a demographer, and the producer of the series Birthgap.

Friday

Stephen J. Shaw

Matthew Parris, Stephen J. Shaw, Henry Jeffreys, Tessa Dunlop and Angus Colwell

From our UK edition

31 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Matthew Parris reflects on the gay rights movement in the UK; faced with Britain’s demographic declines, Stephen J. Shaw argues that Britain needs to recover a sense of ‘futurehood’; Henry Jeffreys makes the case for disposing of wine lists; Tessa Dunlop reviews Valentine Low’s Power and the Palace: The Inside Story of the Monarchy and 10 Downing Street; and, Angus Colwell reviews a new podcast on David Bowie from BBC Sounds.  Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Thursday

Stephen J. Shaw

Could a ‘futurehood’ revolution save Britain?

From our UK edition

As the collapse of birthrates accelerates across the developed world, even our language is struggling to keep up. Over nine years of demographic research, I’ve resorted to coining my own vocabulary just to describe what’s unfolding. ‘Birthgap’, for the widening gulf between generations – too few young to support too many old. ‘Yesterlands’, for once-thriving communities now quietly hollowing out. ‘Retronomics’, for the slow yet continuous un-ravelling that follows demographic decline, as nations are forced to retrofit their economies to fit their shrunken societies. Lately, I’ve been searching for another missing word – this time, to capture the invisible sense that a society still believes in its own tomorrow.

Sunday

Stephen J. Shaw

It isn’t right-wing to worry about our falling birthrates

From our UK edition

Births in the United Kingdom are halving every 55 years. While headlines still focus on overpopulation – driven by urban growth, longer life expectancy, and immigration – the real demographic trajectory is heading sharply in the opposite direction. If current trends continue, by 2080 Britain will need only half as many neonatal units, kindergartens, and primary schools as it does today. That may sound distant, but the effects are already here. Schools are closing across the country, particularly in London, and earlier this year the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead announced that it is set to close its maternity and neonatal units in the coming years, citing falling birthrates.  The UK is not alone. The EU faces a nearly identical outlook; the United States is not far behind.

Thursday

Stephen J. Shaw

Power play: Zelensky’s plan for his Russian conquests

From our UK edition

40 min listen

This week: Power play. The Spectator’s Svitlana Morenets writes the cover article in this week’s magazine exploring Zelensky’s plan for his Russian conquests. What’s his aim? And how could Putin respond? Svitlana joins the podcast alongside historian and author Mark Galeotti (02:10).Next: Will and Gus discuss their favourite pieces from the magazine, including Richard Madeley’s diary and Lara Prendergast’s argument that bankers are hot again.Then: how concerned should we be about falling fertility rates? In the magazine this week Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde argues that the problem is already far more grave, and far more global, than we realise. Why should we worry about this, and what can be done to stem this?

Wednesday

Stephen J. Shaw

The real reason for falling birth rates

From our UK edition

No nation in history is known to have emerged from the grip of long-term low birth rates. This sobering reality should be somewhat concerning, given that 70 per cent of the world’s people now live in countries that are below the replacement-level tipping point – countries where, on average, women have fewer than two surviving children. More worrying still, this crisis has no known solution, countless governmental incentives having failed to raise birth rates or having had only a short-lived impact. Yet, after eight years researching this phenomenon and producing the documentary Birthgap – Childless World, I am left with a hint of optimism for the next generation.