2024 presidential election

Yesterday was a year’s worth of a rising wave that came crashing down on Democratic hopes for 2024. They had hoped Republicans, motivated in part by constant lawfare attacks, would nominate Donald Trump — only to tear their party apart during the summer as denial of election eligibility in key states made clear he had no path to victory. They had hoped that by carefully managing Joe Biden, with access even more locked down than during the height of the pandemic, would survive questions of age and infirmity. And they had assumed the special counsel's report, while sure to include some damning equivalence with Trump’s stacks of Mar-a-Lago memorabilia, would be a story for a news cycle, easily survived and ultimately unmemorable.

As another Trump presidency starts to look more likely, the incessant conversations about age are bubbling back up. Roundtable discussions about “cognitive capabilities” took a hiatus over the last few years in the mainstream press, as a slow-jogging, hair-sniffing, Joe Biden restored normalcy to the White House. Normalcy, for those who haven’t been paying attention, looks like said octogenarian falling up the stairs of Air Force One, falling asleep at COP26, forgetting the names of his own cabinet members and of course, being escorted around the White House lawn by the Easter Bunny.

Cockburn wondered last week what would happen to anti-MAGA voters after their chosen candidates dropped out of the race. Would they be able to return to the Trump fold? Though Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have reignited their months-long feud after the Florida governor dropped out Sunday, it’s last woman standing Nikki Haley who has drawn the bulk of Trump’s ire since. Taking a page from Kari Lake’s “get the hell out” playbook, Trump decreed on Truth Social Wednesday night that Haley donors will be blacklisted from his campaign.  “Anyone that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and we will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL,” Trump posted.

The US primaries are over. Trump whacked Nikki Haley in New Hampshire; if she could win anywhere it was there, and she didn’t, so she’s done. Joe Biden didn’t even bother. The result? The most inadequate, boring primary season in living memory. North Korean elections are more unpredictable than this. For those of us who love politics, primaries are usually more interesting than the November general election. In the general, candidates run to the center; in the primary, they run to the edges, articulating a philosophy and galvanizing its constituency. You get contests of insider versus outsider (Clinton versus Obama, 2008); establishment versus radical (Clinton versus Sanders, 2016).

Nashua, New Hampshire Former president Donald Trump won the GOP primary contest in New Hampshire on Tuesday night, dulling any perceived momentum behind former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. A crowd of supporters at an election night watch party in Nashua cheered as Fox News called the race for Trump shortly after 8 p.m. The Associated Press pulled the trigger a few minutes earlier for the former president. The Beatles’ “Revolution” played on speakers (“You know it’s gonna be alright”) as the group celebrated.

“Many are called, but few are chosen.” That verse from Matthew (22:14) certainly applies to presidential aspirants. The latest to be called but not chosen is Ron DeSantis, who ended his campaign Sunday. Technically, he “suspended” the campaign, but that was simply to comply with campaign finance laws. In practice, the run is over.  The campaign was a brief, unsuccessful effort by a candidate who began with high promise, based on his success as Florida governor. He won that office, just barely, in 2018 after a decisive endorsement from Donald Trump. He was reelected overwhelmingly in 2022 against a well-regarded Democratic opponent.

Manchester, New Hampshire The Republican and Democratic primaries in New Hampshire are two sides of the same coin. New polls released this morning show the 45th and 46th president leading their respective fields comfortably. The latest Boston Globe/Suffolk survey has Donald Trump on 55 percent, with Nikki Haley on 36 percent and Ron DeSantis on 6 percent. The new CNN/UNH poll is a similar story: Trump on 50 percent, Haley on 39 percent, DeSantis on 6 percent.

Vintage news outlets, with lots of time to kill and space to fill, are desperately trying to say the Republican primary contest is still open. It’s not. Ron DeSantis’s campaign is already filled with embalming fluid. True, he finished second in Iowa, but that was his most favorable terrain, and he failed to win outright. DeSantis’s basic strategy was to draw away Trump voters by taking strong, socially conservative positions, such as banning abortions after six weeks in Florida. It didn’t convince primary voters. That spells the end for DeSantis nationally because it failed in a state where he spent a lot of time and money and where Republicans are very conservative. To invert the song, "New York, New York," if he can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere.

Former president Donald Trump delivered a resounding 30-point victory in the Iowa Caucuses Monday night and, according to polls, seems likely to take New Hampshire as well. This is with the exception of one poll released Tuesday that shows Nikki Haley tied with Trump at 40 percent, but it has a sample size of only 600 voters and shows Haley winning with men and Trump winning with women. Seems unlikely. Provided Haley is unable to ride her establishment donor wave to victory in New Hampshire, then, the race will be all Trump by South Carolina. Florida governor Ron DeSantis’s campaign proved to be a huge disappointment; as strategist Ryan Girdusky helpfully laid out in a recounting of his meetings with Team DeSantis over the past year.