2024 presidential election

President Joe Biden has put himself in an awkward position as the 2024 Democratic primary inches closer. The Democratic Party voted last February to change its primary calendar, honoring South Carolina as the first state to vote and demoting Iowa and New Hampshire. The DNC spun a yarn that South Carolina should vote first because it has a larger black population, but that seems a neat excuse to cover up the fact that really they are rewarding South Carolina for being the state that revived Biden’s 2020 campaign after humiliating defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire.Either way, the new primary schedule may come back to bite Biden and the Democratic establishment.

In presidential elections there’s no such thing as a Pyrrhic victory. Winning is everything — and neither party would ever openly admit there could be advantages to losing. Yet the outcome of the 2020 election wasn’t entirely unlucky for the Republican Party or even Donald Trump himself. And as both parties look to next year’s contest, far-sighted strategists can see a bigger picture beyond Trump and Biden. Whoever won in 2020 was going to face the ugly but necessary task of withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan, where twenty years of nation-building had failed to establish a free state that could resist the Taliban. Trump might have executed the withdrawal more successfully than Biden. But if he had, would the media have covered him more favorably? Of course not.

Campaign finance data for the third quarter was released this weekend and the numbers aren’t looking good — Ron DeSantis is trailing far behind Donald Trump, Mike Pence’s cash-on-hand is dangerously low and Tim Scott somehow has more money than any candidate bar Joe Biden and Trump.   One group is doing great though — the 1776 Project PAC, a conservative activist organization, which raised $683,915 from July to September. They even came out ahead of two 2024 hopefuls, raising more than both GOP candidate Asa Hutchinson and Cornel West, the professor and activist running as an Independent. Cockburn wonders if the fact that a small conservative group is walloping the field will make some candidates realize it's finally time to drop out of the race.   https://twitter.

Welcome to Thunderdome, where this week the 2024 election had its first real sea change in priority and policy focus thanks to the horrific, detestable and utterly evil attacks on Israel by Hamas. The general rule in politics is that foreign policy doesn’t matter for voters, and that’s been true in... actually, wait a minute... not even the majority of presidential elections in the past half century! In 1980, 1984, 1988, 2004, 2008 and 2016, foreign policy played an outsized role in the candidate selection of Republicans and Democrats, and you could even argue that Joe Biden’s false promise of foreign policy normalcy was decisive in 2020.

Weep, ad men. The Republican Party shouldn’t have to rely on any of you in 2024. They don’t need your creative, your deployment of over-the-top grainy crime videos, your use of shooting up legislation with AR-15s. All the GOP needs this election is an editor and the C-SPAN live feed of Joe Biden coping with senility. For a cringe-inducing twenty-six minutes in Hanoi, Biden put his diminished, cranky, meandering mental capacity on display. He rolled out his frequently deployed Hollywood equivalent of a Mandela Effect — his own personal Berenstein Bears, his Stouffer’s Stove Top — about a movie scene that simply does not exist in the plane of existence which we, for our sins, inhabit.

Welcome to Thunderdome, where you should never let a crisis go to waste, and Donald Trump isn’t wasting any time bashing Ron DeSantis even in the midst of hurricane recovery efforts, hoping to stomp on what could be an opportunity to show off his good governance chops. The White House, meanwhile, is struggling not just with frustration over their delayed response to the Maui disaster and the president’s insistence on repeatedly telling his exaggerated anecdotes about a house fire, but also the anniversary of another, different kind of disaster: the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which brought Gold Star families to bear against the administration this week. The guys discuss all this and more on the latest Thunderdome podcast — listen and subscribe here today!

Before we get to the main item, a quick bit of housekeeping. Today’s DC Diary will be my last. I’m leaving The Spectator, but am happy to report that the Diary will live on after my departure. It’s been an honor and a pleasure to try and make sense of the often confusing, sometimes maddening news out of Washington over the last few years. I leave you in the more than capable hands of my talented Spectator colleagues.  For a brief time on Wednesday night, America was offered a glimpse of a Republican Party not dominated by Donald Trump. Candidates on the debate stage swapped views on important issues. From Ukraine to abortion, the conversation was substantive, occasionally fiery and, I imagine, illuminating for an undecided primary voter who tuned in.

Former president Donald Trump has been indicted in the state of Georgia, along with several 2020 campaign allies, for attempting to subvert the result of the last presidential election.