Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

NATO acquits itself well in the Poland missile crisis

Mid-afternoon Tuesday, a missile struck the town of Przewodow in eastern Poland close to the Ukrainian border, killing two. The incident immediately set off alarm bells around NATO and the world, as Poland, a member of the military alliance, could invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, bringing all 30 members to its defense. The Polish government is considering invoking Article 4 of the treaty, which allows any member state to call a meeting of all members to discern if "territorial integrity, political independence or security… is threatened." NATO was due to meet on Wednesday anyway, but the tragedy in Poland has superseded the gathering’s planned lineup.

The midterm results are good for Republicans, if not great

The dust is still settling around the congressional midterms, but it looks like Republicans will retake the House by a very slim margin and Democrats will have an ever-so-slight lead in the Senate. But with stubbornly moderate Democrats such as Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, Republicans can be fairly confident the upper chamber will not try to advance the most extreme parts of President Biden’s agenda, even if they do increase their majority by one seat in the December runoff in Georgia. And of course, because of the flip in the House, those uber-progressive proposals will never make it up to the Senate. The governor’s houses in Maryland and Massachusetts may have flipped blue, but Republicans knew they were lucky to be holding them in the first place.

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Winter is no time for weakness in Ukraine

With the recapture of the key southern port city of Kherson, Ukraine has achieved yet another success in its nearly nine-month war with Russia. But as winter approaches and conditions worsen, both sides will face new challenges, and the West’s support will be tested. As the Institute for the Study of War indicated in a recent assessment of the conflict, it is unlikely that combat activity will drop significantly in the coming months. As the early winter rains roll over Ukraine, the region’s infamous mud will prove to be an impediment to maneuver warfare. That period will then give way to the freezing temperatures that characterize the Eastern European winter. Those temperatures will put an end to the mud, allowing forces to more effectively continue operations.

This election was no loss for Trump

If conservatives interpreted Barry Goldwater’s defeat in 1964 the way Trump supporters are being told to interpret the 2022 midterms, there would be no conservative movement today. Of course, the 1964 election was an actual defeat, while this year’s elections were an advance for the new Republican right, which succeeded in its first task — gaining power in the GOP — and has strengthened its hand in Congress. The right has picked up a Senate seat with Ohio’s J.D. Vance, and Republicans look likely to control the House of Representatives come January. The GOP won the majority of votes cast in House races, nearly 52 percent overall. The official narrative of the election is meant to drive the right to suicide.

When Biden met Xi

When Biden met Xi Joe Biden’s meeting with Xi Jinping this morning was arguably the most important of his presidency so far. The two leaders spoke for more than three hours ahead of the G20 summit in Bali. It is their first in-person meeting since Biden became president and it comes at a low ebb for US-China relations. The aim appears to have been to deliver a reassuring message of deescalation and cooperation. “I absolutely believe there need not be a new Cold War,” said Biden after the meeting. “We’re going to compete vigorously, but I’m not looking for conflict. I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly.

The Biden-Xi meeting was long overdue

The bilateral relationship between the United States and China is arguably the most important in the world today. The two countries make up approximately 42 percent of the world’s economic output and more than half of global military expenditure (at $801 billion, the US share of that total dwarfs China’s). The Biden administration’s recently released National Security Strategy names China as "the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it." The central objective from Washington’s standpoint is to compete vigorously with Beijing, prevent China from attaining hegemonic status in the Asia-Pacific, and ensure this competition doesn’t slide into conflict.

Our leaders will learn nothing from these elections

Elections are an opportunity for us to deliver messages to political leaders most of us will never meet. We can’t send Donald Trump a text, nor can we talk about inflation over an extravagantly expensive Jeni’s ice cream cone with Joe Biden. The best we can do is to vote and hope that in our collective numbers we can make ourselves clear. Yet early indications are that the leaders of both parties are poised to learn absolutely nothing from the midterm elections. Let’s examine some of their delusional reactions. The White House hasn’t commented on whether Joe Biden played the recent $2 billion Powerball drawing (which CNN recently accused of being systemically racist), but if he didn’t buy a ticket, he should have.

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We can blame Mitch McConnell, too

So now it's time to figure out who to blame. The post-election spin from the world of Mitch McConnell is that the GOP's failure to flip the Senate is on Donald Trump and National Republican Senatorial Committee head Rick Scott, and that candidate selection and expenditures are the reason that we don't have a Republican majority in the upper house. For anyone who paid attention, this doesn't pass the smell test. In the wake of a number of fractious primaries, GOP Senate candidates essentially went dark in the summer, their ad budgets expended and without the resources to get back on the air. Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer and the DSCC defined the Republican outsiders for a new audience of general election voters.

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Time for the GOP to call out Democrats’ primaries meddling

If there is one lesson the Republican Party needs to learn from this year’s elections, it is that fringe politics and conspiracy theories are not popular. The GOP lost independents by three points to Democrats, a fatal statistic for any midterms. Poor candidate quality, a problem Senator Mitch McConnell pointed out to many Republicans’ chagrin, lost the party winnable seats across the country. The Democrats played a small part in this result through their cynical support for far-right candidates in Republican primaries who they suspected (correctly) would be easier to beat in November. Through various PACs, Democrats spent around $53.275 million to elevate 13 extreme Republican candidates, six of whom won their primaries. All six lost in November.

Saying bye-bye to Beto

Bye-bye, Beto. Well, the self-serving political show-off known to Karl Rove in his Wall Street Journal commentaries as Robert Francis O’Rourke, of El Paso, Texas (“Roberto” in Español = “Beto”). Texans rejected his latest overtures and entreaties, re-electing Republican Governor Greg Abbott by an 11 percent margin on November 8. The margin ought to have been larger, given Beto’s lack of serviceable credentials, and it would have been, save for all the outside money and media fawning that came Beto's way. Still, 11 percent did the job. It finished, in Texas at least, Beto’s career of self-promotion, removing him from the reach of the credulous and naïve. At least I hope so!

Kevin McCarthy’s Faustian bargain

If the returns from Tuesday are any indication, most American voters are breathing a sigh of relief. Thanks to split-ticketing, third-party candidates and some abstentions, the forecasted Red Tsunami seems to have been more of a mild upswell. Yes, poll workers are still counting votes in some races — and Georgia’s Senate runoffs will extend past Thanksgiving. But it seems Americans have once again voted for divided government by giving Republicans a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Victorious politicians often talk about “trusting the voters,” but this time the voters really seem to have had a sense of humor. Just as they are deposing House Democrats, they are also tying would-be speaker Kevin McCarthy to the whipping post.

The time to move on from boomer Republicanism is now

Having been saddled by everyone involved with the largest portion of blame for Tuesday's election disappointment, Donald Trump's descent into the pit of despair takes exactly the form you could expect: a series of Mean Girls rants about everyone more popular than he is in the Republican Party. There has been much talk over the years about how there's a Good Trump and a Bad Trump, but the truth about our 45th president is that, just like the Marvel Cinematic Universe's version of the Hulk, he's always angry — he just controls it better when times are good. Now that times are bad — or as bad as they can be when you have millions more Republicans voting than Democrats and you just dislodged Nancy Pelosi from power — he is reverting to his true form. It ain't pretty.

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A tale of two post-midterm missives

A tale of two post-election missives With the votes still being counted and Republicans coming to terms with Tuesday’s disappointing results, the last few days have seen the publication of two very different score-settling memos. The first was from Mike Pence on Wednesday. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Pence divulged new details about his “last days with Donald Trump” Pence details his interactions with the former president in the days between the 2020 election and Inauguration Day in January 2021. He paints a picture of Trump losing patience with his VP. Pence recounts a conversation on the morning of the day Congress was set to certify the election results: I rose early that day and worked on my statement to Congress. When the phone rang a little after 11 a.m.

Republicans need to figure out mail-in voting

I have been thinking about the phrase “the fix was in.” What it means is that a certain result was predetermined. It carries with it a suggestion — but only, I think, a suggestion — of something, if not quite illicit, then at least not quite above board. Why have I been thinking about that pregnant phrase? If you said “the midterm elections,” go to the head of the class. I have no idea whether there was anything corrupt or underhanded about the election, notwithstanding the Caligula’s horse moment of John Fetterman’s election to the United States Senate. It was odd, no doubt, that the people of the great state of Pennsylvania elected a mentally incompetent trust-fund leftie who never saw a dead baby he didn’t like.

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The normie election

Since Tuesday’s shocking midterm results started trickling in, the chattering classes have scrambled to make sense of yet another election we forecast so very poorly. The media promised a red wave of epic proportions; instead, President Biden had the best midterm elections of any US president since 2002, despite his dreadful approval ratings. In the lead-up to the vote count, poll after poll found that Americans’ top issues were inflation, the economy, crime and immigration — kitchen table issues on which the Democrats have performed abysmally in recent years. Everything pointed to a very bad night for the president’s party. So why didn’t voters send a clear message to Democrats about their misplaced priorities, as we in the media were so sure they would?

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WATCH: Germans are dancing to stay warm this winter

The world's eyes have been on America this week, thanks to the midterms. Cockburn, however has been gazing across the Atlantic with amusement. A new dance class is being offered in Germany called "Let’s Move — Tanzt Euch Warm," or "dance yourselves warm," to combat rising energy costs as the temperature falls. https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1590588816716242944 Watching the footage of the chilly krauts cha-cha-cha-ing, Cockburn can’t help but recall former president Donald Trump’s speech to the United Nations back in 2018, where he warned that "Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy." At the time, the German delegation laughed and shook their heads at what they considered yet another absurd broadside from the American president. https://twitter.

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Hurricane Nicole backs Ron DeSantis over Trump

The red wave didn’t happen, but Mother Nature is unleashing waves of torrential rain on Mar-a-Lago ahead of the wedding of Donald Trump’s daughter, Tiffany, to billionaire Michael Boulos, set for this weekend. Cockburn can’t help but marvel how Hurricane Nicole spared Ron DeSantis’s reelection on Tuesday, but is now, along with Republicans everywhere, unleashing some Old Testament-style vengeance on the Trump family. Tiffany Trump is reportedly “flipping out” as Mar-a-Lago has been partially evacuated and staff sent home ahead of the impending storm. Much like the red wave Trump was prepared to take credit for, Page Six reports that many Trump friends “might not make it” to the party (just as they failed to make it to their own victory parties earlier this week).

J.D. Vance was practically destined to win Ohio

Republican J.D. Vance wiped the floor with Democrat Tim Ryan on Tuesday night. It was a surprise for all the professional pundits only because the Ohio Senate race had been obscured by all kinds of white noise. The mainstream media worked overtime to paint the contest as a toss-up and the Democrats insisted they were going to flip the seat. Just a couple of weeks ahead of the election, multiple polls had the race at a statistical tie. Vance ended up winning by seven points. Several Republican consultants told me that they never believed the race would be close. Ohio, they pointed out, was ground zero for the working-class realignment that propelled Donald Trump to victory in 2016. Trump won the state again by eight points in the 2020 presidential election.

Don’t expect the midterms to change our foreign policy

President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies were expecting a romp on Tuesday. So were many of the career prognosticators surveying the election landscape. Instead, many of the close Senate races, including in all-important Georgia and Nevada, haven’t been called. Those of us who have been staring at the returns for hours on end still don’t know the full extent of the results. But what can be said with reasonable certainty is that however the balance of power stacks up, foreign policy is likely to be the same as it ever was. The status quo is an all-powerful force inside the Beltway, where conventional wisdom rules the roost and any tilt away from the mainstream is usually corrected before an honest discussion can be had on the merits. Part of this is institutional.

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How Fetterman appealed to a suffering Pennsylvania

Dr. Mehmet Oz has conceded to John Fetterman but has yet to say anything publicly, probably because, like many Republicans — myself included — he’s just not sure what to say. How could Fetterman, a tattooed, scowling, sloppily dressed goon with a concerning and unsightly neck lump (when I Googled his name, “Fetterman neck” was the third suggested search term), whose debate performance a mere two weeks ago was nothing short of pathetic, possibly have defeated a polished, successful, well-spoken heart surgeon for US Senate? Fetterman’s victory is almost unbelievable, until you zoom out and look at the state of Pennsylvania and most of the country.

Is Mastodon the new Twitter?

It’s been less than two weeks since Elon Musk took over Twitter — and Cockburn is finding the app more chaotic than ever. The news of the tech takeover really separated the kids from the grown-ups. One by one, the haughtiest users have bravely announced their departure from the bird website. Ciao! The latest to go is the British actor Stephen Fry, who posted a picture of Scrabble letters spelling out "goodbye" to his 12.5 million followers. He’s since headed over to Mastodon. Never heard of it? Neither had Cockburn until he got his tech-savvy nieces to give him a hand. And now he can say, with authority, that it is even worse than Twitter. When signing up to Mastodon, users choose a "server," which is based on your interests. "Mindly.

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Georgia gets ready to runoff… again

Atlanta, Georgia Here we go again. For the second time in as many years, Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock is headed to a runoff. Neither he nor his Republican opponent Herschel Walker has secured 50 percent of the vote in Georgia, the state office confirmed Wednesday afternoon. The pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church and the Heisman Trophy-winning running back will face off again for the US Senate seat on Tuesday December 6. As the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jolt newsletter made clear on Wednesday morning, “split-ticket voters” were the key to pushing the Senate race to a runoff.

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At Mar-a-Lago as the red wave died out

It was a dark and stormy election night at Mar-a-Lago, former president Donald Trump’s Florida home and private club, which is the marquee residence of our island resort community of Palm Beach. In the world outside American politics, Tropical Storm Nicole was gathering strength and bearing down on us. Earlier in the day, the Island (always with a capital “I,” unless you’re not really a resident and don’t know any better) was placed under a hurricane warning. About an hour before the party started, the town issued a mandatory evacuation order to take effect at 7 a.m. the following morning. All this was forgotten as euphoric Republicans gathered inside the gates, snugly out of the gusts and downpour.

The winners and losers of the 2022 midterms

In every election, there are the winners and losers, but there are also winners and losers away from the ballot box, which oftentimes are more important and have a longer tail than the vote-getters. In the 2022 midterms, here are the winners and losers as I see them. Loser: Donald Trump Well, this one is obvious. The former president weighed in with all his political energy behind multiple candidates in this cycle, particularly in divisive primaries and statewide races where he often chose outsiders over more experienced candidates. The Trump fatigue factor was clearly a problem this time around, with his choices in some races utterly rejected by voters.

Red ripple

Red ripple The red wave wasn’t to be. As I write, control of the Senate and the House both remain up for grabs. It looks likely that the Republican Party will grab control of the House while John Fetterman’s victory in Pennsylvania gives Democrats the upper hand in the battle for the Senate. The ramifications of a disappointing night for Republicans will be wide-ranging. To name a few, the results underscore the need for the party to move on from Donald Trump (more on that below), call for a rethink to the GOP message on abortion and leave House minority leader Kevin McCarthy with a much more complicated route to the Speaker’s chair. I was at what was supposed to be a raucous victory party thrown by McCarthy in downtown Washington last night.

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How did I get the midterms so wrong?

How wrong can you be? About as wrong as I was about the character of the midterm elections. I thought there would be a red wave, fueled in part by high-octane orange fuel. Clearly I was wrong. It is no consolation to know that I was hardly alone in my assumptions. Nor is it much consolation to hear from Donald Trump that it was a “GREAT EVENING” because there were “174 wins and nine losses.” I didn’t check his math, but even if accurate it is obvious that there was no red wave. Several of his high-profile candidates lost, most conspicuously Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. The fact that he lost to a man who is ostentatiously a mental incompetent added insult to injury.

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Why didn’t Democrats pay a price for their extremism?

The modern political pundit is a voice in the wilderness, a self-styled beacon of truth against a pampered and bought-off establishment. Yet to cut against the trend: I was wrong about last night's midterms. I thought it was going to be a Republican rout. Even after the Dobbs decision came down and Democrats saw a boost in the polls I still didn't think abortion would ever trump inflation and crime in the minds of voters. And while 2022 didn't see a blue wave, it sure didn't see a red wave either. Instead the scene this morning looks a lot like the status quo. If current vote totals hold, then the Senate will remain 50-50 with Kamala Harris breaking the tie, while Republicans haven't flipped enough congressional seats to retake the House.

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Donald Trump is an albatross around the Republican neck

Donald Trump spent the days immediately before the midterms teasing and threatening his biggest Republican rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis. At a rally in Philadelphia, he coined the nickname Ron DeSanctimonious. Then, on the night before the election, flying in his 757 from Ohio to Florida, he said that he thought a DeSantis presidential run would be a “mistake,” that “the base would not like it” and that “if he did run, I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.” DeSantis said nothing. Instead, he let the voters do the talking. And their voice was heard very clearly last night.

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Another blue day for red New Yorkers

Lee Zeldin’s fairytale run for governor of New York fell short on Tuesday as he lost by roughly five points to incumbent Kathy Hochul. The race began months ago, and at first seemed out of reach for the Long Island congressman. But a strong campaign focused on crime pulled him to within striking distance before petering out. To put the race in perspective, Democrat Andrew Cuomo, whom Hochul replaced after his resignation in 2021, won the governorship by twenty-two points in 2018, and most prognosticators saw a similar romp in the cards for Hochul when the 2022 cycle began. But in the end, though he captured the imagination of the nation, Zeldin could not capture the governor’s mansion in Albany.

Trump calls for McConnell’s ouster on eve of election

Former president Donald Trump called for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to be replaced by Senator Rick Scott during a rally in Ohio late Monday night. Cockburn is not terribly surprised that the former president would choose to attack his party a day before what promises to be a Republican wave — after all, he's aligned with the voices on the left who consider the GOP "the Trump Party." Trump branded McConnell a “lousy leader,” saying he “has been very bad for our nation” and “very bad for the Republican Party.” He also praised Scott as a “very talented guy” who is the “likely candidate” to replace McConnell.

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Rich, scared celebs back pseudo-Republican Rick Caruso for LA mayor

Nothing brings people together quite like crazy, violent homeless people destroying your city. So it is that a hodgepodge of Hollywood types — Snoop Dogg, Kim Kardashian, Elon Musk, Gwyneth Paltrow, Katy Perry, Chris Pratt, Maria Shriver, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos and billionaire Robert Kraft and his wife — are publicly supporting Rick Caruso, the former Police Commission president, Republican-turned-Democrat running for Los Angeles mayor against Democratic congresswoman Karen Bass. Caruso’s campaign message is one that resonates in a rundown city rife with crime.