Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Why Joe Biden will win tomorrow

Joe Biden is going to win. I have been wrong before. I will be wrong again. And maybe I’m wrong today. But we do not have any significant data to suggest Donald Trump was ever in a position to win reelection, or that he is closing the campaign with any sort of momentum needed for a come-from-behind victory. Four years ago, we did have such data. In the RealClearPolitics national polling average, Hillary Clinton’s lead shrunk nearly six percentage points between October 18 and November 3, before ticking up a bit at the end. Her share of support throughout the duration of the general election campaign never reached 50 percent, an indication of soft support.

biden
kamala harris james madison

Kamala Harris vs James Madison

If Joe Biden loses the presidential election tomorrow, he will not have any shortage of people to blame. The first culprit will be himself. Why did he do it? Why did he run? There are some vigorous 78-year-olds. Joe Biden is not among them. Physically, he’s ready for a nice cup of Ovaltine, not the Oval Office. In the matter of stamina, it is unfair to measure most people against Donald Trump. The man is a machine. As Ann Althouse pointed out, the President visited five states yesterday, covering about 3,000 miles. Joe traveled to two quiet events in one state some 30 miles from his home. William Blake was on to something when he observed that 'Energy is eternal delight.’ Joe Biden is a faltering battery, a flaccid string. Donald Trump is a dynamo.

safetyism

Will America succumb to safetyism? 

The outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election will reveal whether the feminized, therapeutic culture of the university has become the dominant force in the American psyche.During the last eight months of coronavirus panic, a remarkable number of Americans have deliberately — one might even say, ecstatically — embraced fear over fact. They have shut their ears to the data, available since March, showing how demographically circumscribed the lethal threat from coronavirus infection is: concentrated among the very elderly and those with multiple and serious preexisting health conditions. A remarkable number of Americans have voluntarily cowered in their homes despite the lack of a scientific basis for doing so.

The crucial Supreme Court case defending Catholic foster care services

On the day after the presidential election, Amy Coney Barrett, now beginning her career as a Supreme Court justice, will hear oral arguments in one of the most significant civil rights cases to come before the Court in decades. The case is Fulton v. Philadelphia. The point of contention in the case could hardly be more sensitive, since it pits the protection of religious freedom against the interests of same-sex couples — and the context is the foster care of children. Its journey to the nation’s highest court has been long and bitter. In 2018, city officials in Philadelphia insisted that the Catholic Archdiocese of Philadelphia’s foster care agency certify same-sex married couples as foster parents.

foster

The Pope really doesn’t like Republicans

Last week we learned that Pope Francis has torn up the Catholic Church’s teaching that same-sex civil partnerships are gravely immoral. This week he will be rooting for the pro-abortion candidate in the US presidential election. These two surreal developments are causing distress bordering on spiritual despair to conservative American Catholics. Whether you feel any sympathy for them depends on your point of view. The Pope, it is safe to say, is unlikely to lose any sleep over the matter. Francis dislikes the United States in general and its president in particular. That’s not surprising; so do most Argentinians. What is surprising is the depth of his contempt for conservative American Catholics.

pope

The American media is failing you

American journalism has lost its bearings, and we are all paying the price. For the past four years, egged on by President Trump, mainstream news swiftly descended past the first circle of hell — subtle partisanship — and reached a far darker, hotter one: blatant favoritism, stories killed for purely partisan reasons and occasional propaganda masquerading as solid news.Journalism’s decline mirrors that of other American institutions, but it has compounded the social damage. A thriving democracy depends on free and open debate and informed debate depends on trustworthy news. For most Americans, that trust has evaporated.The Washington Post is exactly right when it says, ‘Democracy dies in darkness.

media
hapsburg

American Weimar or American Hapsburg?

Aaron Sibarium has written a fascinating article for American Purpose on the parallels between the current American republic and the Weimar republic. It’s worth reading on its own merits as a history lesson, as a reminder that no people is immune to time and tide, as a reflection on how democracy can turn into disaster. It’s worth reading even if you disagree, as I do.

momentum

Trump has the momentum in the final week

I don’t believe in astrology, but, if I did, I’d have to say the stars are aligning for Donald Trump in the last 10 days of this tumultuous election. Beginning with the second presidential debate where Trump finally displayed presidential behavior and Joe Biden expressly proclaimed his goal to transition away from oil (i.e., kill it), virtually every unfolding event has aided Trump’s cause for reelection. Though he still might not win, the momentum is clearly behind Trump as Election Day nears.First, Biden’s comment on energy at the last debate certainly hurt him with energy industry workers and their families in western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, Texas, New Mexico and Colorado.

The Philly riots could throw Pennsylvania to Trump

Rioters and looters in Philadelphia may have just paved Trump's road to victory in Pennsylvania. Biden helped last week when he admitted during the final presidential debate that he wanted to phase out US oil production. It was a boneheaded thing to say while trying to court blue-collar Americans in swing states, many of whom work in the energy sector. Now, Trump also has the 'law and order' narrative on his side. Walter Wallace Jr, a 27-year-old black man, was shot and killed by police in Philadelphia on Monday. It only took until that evening for protests to turn to looting and rioting. Just like in Minneapolis, Atlanta, Portland and other major cities, businesses were destroyed and individuals were harmed.

pennsylvania riots

Back to work with Donald Trump and the Pennsylvania Dutch

Lititz, PennsylvaniaMy family considers it a bit unfair that I’m the one who got to go to the Trump rally in Lancaster, Pennsylvania on Monday, given that I like him least of all of us and I don’t usually write about politics. But I live nearby and am unscrupulous about knocking off my day job, so The Spectator got me a press pass. By noon on Monday I was safely installed in a socially-distanced airplane hangar, bopping along with Elton John, waiting with everyone else for the President to arrive and wondering what he might say to my deeply-divided homeland. Of course he opens with a shout-out to the Amish. Look, I understand that most people know exactly one thing about Lancaster County, but can’t we leave the Amish out of this one?

pennsylvania amish trump

Morning in America or mourning in America?

In the countdown to Election Day, the two campaigns are taking starkly different approaches.Joe Biden is sitting on a lead in the polls, trying to run out the clock, while Donald Trump is making a frenzied dash for the finish line, selling optimism.Both strategies make sense.Like a football team leading in the final quarter, Biden’s goal is simply to keep the clock ticking down to zero. Nothing fancy. Just avoid mistakes and prevent the other team from getting the ball back.To avoid those mistakes, Biden is rarely leaving his basement. When he does, his goal is less to rouse voters than to prove he’s still alive and capable of traveling across state lines. He speaks to small crowds and says whatever’s on the teleprompter.

mourning america

Tony Bobulinski and implausible deniability

It turns out that the 2020 US presidential election is not between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as we have been told. It is not even between Donald Trump and The Committee, that shadow compact of left-wing actors who settle on Biden as the most acceptable face for their radical make-America-over agenda. Everyone who gives the matter a moment’s thought knows that a vote for Joe Biden is really just a proxy vote for Kamala Harris. But last night, Fox News aired an extraordinary interview that Tucker Carlson conducted with Tony Bobulinski, a former naval officer who had been tapped by the Bidens, Hunter and Joe’s brother Jim, to be CEO of a financial company they were attempting to put together. Watch it here (unless YouTube has taken it down).

tony bobulinski

Dear Democrats, pack the court and nuke the filibuster. I dare you

In the end, there was nothing the protesting left, the heavily slanted progressive media or the Democratic party could do. Amy Coney Barrett is now a Supreme Court justice. Cable news voices like Jake Tapper were left aghast that she dared to attend her swearing-in ceremony at the White House. That was it. Going forward, we are left with a litany of threats about court packing (legislatively expanding the amount of seats on the Supreme Court) and ending the legislative filibuster. The latter would allow Democrats to pass a radical agenda, which includes statehood for Washington DC and Puerto Rico, a Green New Deal to end fossil fuels and whatever other fanatical ideas have been floating around in progressive circles.

pack court

Joe Biden’s endless wars

In just over a week, the Empire hopes to strike back. Joe Biden personifies the foreign policy of endless war that Democrats and neoconservatives pursued for 25 years, from the end of the Cold War until the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Biden voted for the biggest and most foolish intervention of that era, the Iraq War of 2003. He has not so much repudiated this act as tried to exculpate himself for it, claiming that in voting to authorize military force he didn’t think military force would be used. This is not credible on its face, and not the way anyone understood the vote at the time. It was as clear a vote for war as any vote has been since World War Two.

joe biden endless wars
doomed trump campaign

The Trump campaign is doomed

Freddy Gray is optimistic about President Trump’s political prospects. The polls showing that Trump is headed for the ropes are merely ‘clever mathematical models’. Trump, we are assured, is a protean figure, a ‘great finisher’ who can win a second term and show all those lily-livered pundits what kind of a man it really takes to win a second term in the White House.Don’t believe a word of it. Trump isn’t about to resurrect his campaign. Instead, it’s headed for calamity.One reason is the palpable incompetence of Trump and his Stosstruppen. When the campaign began, Trump and his advisers were bragging about Death Stars. Now their campaign has proven to be ill-starred.

Culture war forever

Donald Trump made a lot of promises during the 2016 campaign. Four years later, it has been mostly a relief to see them all broken. There's the ‘big, beautiful’ border wall, still largely a figment of the President's imagination (as was Mexico's interest in paying for it.) A plan to replace the Affordable Care Act, supposedly just around the corner for years, clearly does not exist. And despite much bloviating to the contrary, multiple Hillary Clinton sightings in the months and years following the election confirm that she is not, in fact, locked up. But perhaps most importantly, Trump made a lot of noise about extricating America from endless wars — instead, he's left us embedded in a brand new one. The Culture Wars are our new Forever War.

japan trade biden culture war
agenda trump finisher

Donald Trump is a terrifyingly good finisher

It’s hard not to be impressed by Donald J. Trump’s sheer tenacity, especially when you consider he just had COVID. The President just gave a very long and energetic speech at a rally in New Hampshire, and now he’s off again on to another event in Maine. ‘I’m doing three or four of these suckers a day,’ he says. ‘That’s not bad.’ He’s drastically down in the polls. All those clever mathematical models suggest he has about a 10 percent chance of winning. Yet he’s a fanatically competitive man, an extraordinary campaigner, and a political force that nobody quite understands. He is also a great finisher.

weekly world news

The Weekly World News should hire me

There is a harrowing ritual of childhood that far too many youths in our Amazon, Instacart, and Seamless-equipped world may never need to suffer (especially post-COVID): grocery shopping with your parents. Let me tell you, kiddos. This sucked. You’d get dragged around through the aisles without being allowed to play hide-and-seek, met with rejection every time you asked whether you could have the new flavor of PopTarts or your favorite heart-stoppingly sugary breakfast cereal, and if you did anything like excitedly scream ‘LOOK! DEAD SNAKE MEAT!’ you’d be hushed and told it was just spicy Italian sausage and you should be using your indoor voice anyway.

Confessions of the Secret Suburban Trump Moms: Maryland

Make no mistake about it, I’m a suburban middle-class mom of two and a Trump supporter. I have been ever since I saw him coming down that escalator. I’m voting for Donald Trump because he has clear, defined goals for Americans — all Americans — and for America. Despite the left’s constant attacks on him, he persists and delivers — that’s tenacity. He doesn’t back down. He’s a fighter and that’s what we need for our country, now more than ever. When I voted for him in 2016, I saw this man as more of a regular American than any career politician. What you see is what you get. Just the truth — that’s what we needed in 2016 and what we still need in 2020.

maryland

A historically accurate pollster puts the presidential race within the margin of error

Election polling has been largely consistent since the pandemic hit the US: Joe Biden is the heavy favorite. But one historically accurate pollster is sticking to his own data, which shows a closer race than expected.Raghavan Mayur is the president and founder of TechnoMetrica, which runs the IBD/TIPP poll. His polling predicted the winner of the past four presidential elections. IBD/TIPP was one of only two polls in 2016 that had Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton. Mayur has received widespread praise for his accuracy, yet he still largely remains an outlier in 2020 polling.‘I’m a small business guy — I don’t have the time to go around looking at what other people do,’ he told The Spectator. ‘I do what we do. And it has turned out to be pretty good.

pollster
trump

Trump sealed the deal last night

First, let me pay brief homage to Kristen Welker, moderator of Thursday night’s debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. A White House correspondent for NBC, she is pretty clearly not an enthusiast for President Trump. But unlike the wretched Chris Wallace, she did not make the debate a two-versus-one shouting match against the President. And unlike Steve Scully, who was scheduled to moderate the canceled second debate, she did not covertly consult with one of the President’s enemies and then lie about it when exposed.

debate bruises biden trump

A serious debate that leaves Biden with lingering bruises

Thursday night’s debate was far calmer and more substantive than the street brawl that preceded it. If we score it like a boxing match, it was pretty close. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden landed punches. Neither had to be carried out on a stretcher. But that’s the wrong way to look at it. It matters, obviously, that neither candidate won a decisive victory and that Trump needed one more because he’s trailing, according to polls. But the debate helped Trump in another way. Biden said things he will regret. Time and again, he made false or misleading claims and politically-questionable promises. Three stand out: 'super predators’, fracking and family corruption.

The final 2020 presidential debate — live blog

8:30 p.m. ET — Matt McDonald: Hello and welcome to The Spectator’s live blog for the second and final debate between President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden. Tonight's proceedings kick off in 30 minutes at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. Hopefully we can offer a better quality of debate… 8:31 p.m. ET — Amber Athey: I just took an hour-long boomer nap to really simulate the experience of Biden and Trump preparing for the debate stage. Feeling very refreshed and ready to call anything I disagree with Russian disinformation. 8:32 p.m. ET — Chadwick Moore: I'm wondering if Trump goes in attack-dog style again it will be more effective this time, given the scandals.

final debate
carolina

Crunch time in Carolina

Raleigh, North CarolinaNorth and South Carolina are home to some of the most important contests of this usually contentious election year. Closely divided North Carolina could go either way for president, US Senate, and a host of other races, while South Carolina’s highly competitive — and highly expensive — matchup between incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and former South Carolina Democratic party chairman Jaime Harrison has been one of the biggest surprises of the political season.I grew up in the most-populous city in the Carolinas, Charlotte, which is right on the border between the two states. I have family roots in both.

Unanswered questions for Big Tech

It’s been a full week since the New York Post published their first story about Hunter Biden’s laptop, which is currently in FBI possession. The purported contents of the laptop which were released selectively in several news stories by the Post include private emails and photographs. These have yet to be proven as forgeries or inauthentic. Swiftly cable news pundits and liberal-leaning journalists began wondering whether the laptop, the repair service in Delaware, or the source of the leak to the Post were part of a foreign campaign to influence the presidential election. But the DNI, FBI, DOJ and State Department all said there was no evidence to support those theories.

new york post big tech
pompeo

Pompeo: no reason to believe Hunter Biden story is Russian disinformation

Mike Pompeo has ‘every reason to believe’ director of national intelligence John Ratcliffe’s assessment that the recent story about Hunter Biden and his emails is not the product of Russian disinformation. https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1318933935007633410 'I have every reason to believe he's got it exactly right,' the secretary of state said during a Wednesday press briefing in response to a question from The Spectator. The New York Post's report contains emails purportedly from Hunter Biden in which he discusses setting up meetings between foreign business associates and vice president Joe Biden.

Jeffrey Toobin’s stroke of misfortune

Jeffrey Toobin is a man much wronged. On Monday, the New Yorker writer was suspended by the magazine for which he’s written for two decades, and took a leave of absence from CNN, where’s he served as a legal affairs analyst since 2002. What possible sin could he have committed that forced these pillars of the media establishment to sideline a bonafide star with the presidential election less than two weeks away and Team Joe Biden needing every hand on deck? Toobin masturbated during a Zoom video conference in which he and his colleagues fantasized about forcibly removing Donald Trump from office and throwing him in jail. In other words, Toobin is being punished for having the precise response that the exercise was designed to elicit.

jeffrey toobin
russiagate

Get ready for Russiagate 2.0 if Trump wins

If Trump is reelected, prepare for Russiagate 2.0. This time it'll be even crazier. The Hunter Biden story has given the President's opponents an excuse to do what they do best: shout 'Russia' at any allegation they don't like. It sounds insane that they would double down on a strategy that has failed so miserably before. The Democratic party's obsession with the Trump-Russia conspiracy alienated average Americans and with very little payoff. Special Counsel Robert Mueller's multi-year investigation indicated that there was insufficient evidence to show collusion between Trump and Moscow, though it did find that Russia had attempted to hack the election.

inslee

The talentless Mr Inslee

SeattleWhen the time comes to consider the question of America’s worst governors, it seems we’re somewhat spoilt for choice. From the swivel-eyed Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan to New York’s ubiquitous Andrew Cuomo and his never-ending victory lap for having overseen just 33,000 deaths — a reported 6,692 of them in his state’s nursing homes — media posturing would seem to be the rule, and sustained periods of selfless public duty the exception. But for sheer myopic self-regard, it would be hard to top 69-year-old Jay Inslee, the Democratic governor of Washington since 2013, who barring a political earthquake is almost certain to be reelected in next month’s election.

belief polarization

The loyal opposition

Last week, a group of academics published a report that showed over 40 percent of Americans think violence might be justified if the other side wins the election. Both sides talk of the other ‘stealing the election’. Each side claims this is the most important election in US history. For the first time in generations, there’s a sense that the US election could prompt skirmishes, blood in the streets.‘What would the military do?’ people ask. In the world’s most powerful democracy, a nation that fetishizes its Constitution, and obsesses over its checks and balances, how did we come to this?‘Polarization’ is a word we’ve heard a great deal these last years.

Jeffrey Toobin’s Zoom horror show

It's been a bad couple of years for Jeffreys... Veteran New Yorker reporter Jeffrey Toobin has been suspended from the magazine after he 'exposed himself during a Zoom call last week', according to VICE. Toobin, who also serves as a CNN legal analyst, must have been reaching for the tissues as he described the incident as an 'embarrassingly stupid mistake' and offered an apology to his 'wife, family, friends and co-workers' in a statement. Cockburn is perhaps most surprised that Toobin is the first significant figure to be caught out during a video-conference, seven months into the COVID pandemic. What took us? Naturally, Twitter users have been having a field day with the story: https://twitter.com/rysimmons/status/1318266346610765829 https://twitter.

jeffrey toobin
fracking

Why fracking matters

Sigmund Freud famously noted that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. In the case of fracking, even Freud would have acknowledged that fracking is about so much more than just fracking. That is why the issue is so important to voters beyond those in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas where so much oil and natural gas is produced. That is also why Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have tried to walk back their positions on fracking from the Democratic primary, when they said they’d ban fracking and cease the use of carbon-based energy sources, as well as push for the budget-busting and progressive utopian Green New Deal. Of course, it’s about jobs.

covid

The US is coming out of COVID no worse than any European country

It has become a received wisdom in recent months that the US has failed where the EU had succeeded. On June 22, for example, CNN viewers were shown a graph of COVID cases in the US, which had seemed to flatten at around 25,000 cases a day, compared with those in the EU which had fallen away from an April peak to fewer than 5,000 cases a day. ‘Look at the EU,’ viewers were told. ‘That’s where we should be.’ Roll on four months, however, and it is looking a little different. While cases in the US fell away, then returned in what is beginning to look like a bit of a third wave, Europe has been consumed in a rapidly-growing second wave.