Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Beware the Trumpy Bear

There is a new reason to feel bearish about the Trump presidency. Brian Klaas, who writes a column for the Washington Post about the serial threats that Donald Trump poses to American democracy, was one of the first to identify a new ad on Fox for a plush 22” Trumpy Bear that comes with a 28” by 30” American flag tucked inside it that is supposed to serve as a blanket. Two payments of $19.95 plus shipping, the purveyors of the teddy bear assure us, will permit anyone to own an authentic piece of American history. The bear has a blonde combover, a red tie, cufflinks, and he loves golf. https://twitter.

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beto O’Rourke 2020

The Democratic hype around Beto O’Rourke 2020 smacks of desperation

Democrats had a good night last Tuesday, flipping dozens of seats to recapture the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years. On the surface, the party looks confident and newly ascendant. It seems to have shaken off the 2016 jitters, which gave liberals around the country a mild form of PTSD. Yet, underneath the veneer, Democrats are still their usual listless selves. They may seem unified and ready to do battle against President Donald Trump, but the party remains divided about which course to take, how to bring the white working class back into their corner, and which candidate would be their best hope in 2020 to make Trump the first one-term president since 1992. The Democrats are desperately searching for their own white whale.

Trump dodges tough questions by feigning forgetfulness

It’s beginning to look as though Michelle Obama does not like Donald Trump. In her new memoir, Becoming, she explains why. Her beef with Trump centers on his embrace of the birther controversy about her husband, who was supposedly born in Indonesia or some other far off country — anywhere but America: ‘The whole thing was crazy and mean-spirited, of course, its underlying bigotry and xenophobia hardly concealed. But it was also dangerous, deliberately meant to stir up the wingnuts and kooks. What if someone with an unstable mind loaded a gun and drove to Washington? What if that person went looking for our girls? Donald Trump, with his loud and reckless innuendos, was putting my family’s safety at risk. And for this I’d never forgive him.

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donald trump rust belt

How Trump wins the Rust Belt again in 2020

One interpretation of the midterm election results in the Rust Belt, where Democrats made substantial gains (though not across the board), is that Trump’s unpopularity dragged down Republicans. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania propelled Trump to victory in 2016, and his inability to sustain a base of support there cost Republican candidates for state and federal office – or so the interpretation goes. There’s probably a measure of truth to this. Trump’s approval in Michigan, for instance, lags at 44 percent, according to CNN exit polls; the state re-elected a Democratic senator without much fanfare, as well as a new governor, and several well-established GOP House incumbents were ousted.

kyrsten sinema libertarians greens

Don’t blame Libertarians or Greens when your party loses

A Republican comes within a hair’s breadth of winning a Senate seat — only to lose when the Libertarian Party candidate draws more votes than difference between the majority-party candidates’ numbers. Elsewhere, a Democrat is narrowly defeated when a Green Party candidate takes a few percentage points in a tight race where the Republican has less than a single point’s lead. These scenarios have played out a several times in recent elections, including on Tuesday. Only in the past 24 hours has Kyrsten Sinema, the Democrats’ candidate for Senate in Arizona, pulled ahead of her Republican rival by half a percent, as votes continue to be counted. The Green Party candidate in that race won 2.3 percent.

George Conway weighs in on (il)legality of Sessions firing

George Conway, the husband of Kellyanne, is putting on warpaint. ‘President Trump’s installation of Matthew Whitaker as acting attorney general of the United States after forcing the resignation of Jeff Sessions is unconstitutional. It’s illegal. And it means that anything Mr Whitaker does, or tries to do, in that position is invalid,’ Conway together with former acting US Solicitor General Neal K. Katyal wrote today in the New York Times. Obviously, the fact that George is Kellyanne’s helpmate supplies an extra frisson to the op-ed, but the arguments that he and Katyal advance are wholly persuasive.

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jim acosta don quixote

Jim Acosta: the Don Quixote of fake news

Let’s face it, reality show star Jim Acosta could get a cover charge for his rendition of the Man of La Mancha. There he is, press conference after press conference, crooning his ‘unheard melodies’: ‘To dream the impossible dream To fight the unbeatable foe To bear with unbearable sorrow To run where the brave dare not go.’ Don Quixote tilted at windmills and was ridiculous but lovable. Jim Acosta accosts his ‘unbeatable foe,’ Donald Trump and is ridiculous but disgusting. Think back to his performance in August before the President’s Press Secretary Sarah Sanders. Acosta kept badgering her to assure the scribes in the White House press pool that the President did not think the were ‘enemies of the people.

The midterms delivered a feeble rivulet, not a blue wave

Not rapture but, as Nanki-Poo said upon learning that Yum-Yum did not love Koko, ‘modified rapture.’ There was no blue wave. Rather, as I suggested last April, what we have been treated to is a ‘feeble rivulet.’ Yes, the Democrats flipped the House by a narrow margin. They needed 23 seats. As of this writing, they have 27.  They may pick up a couple more. So: a narrow victory, not the ‘tsunami’ that, Nate Silver, the World’s Greatest Psephologist™, had predicted. (To put things in perspective, Barack Obama lost 63 seats in 2010.) Meanwhile, as of this writing, the Republicans have gained three seats in the Senate. In both Arizona and Montana, the Republican candidates, Martha McSally and Matt Rosendale are leading.

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blue wave purple

It wasn’t a blue wave yesterday, but a purple one

Yesterday’s elections were expected to be more important than midterms usually are in America, and in their own way they turned out to be. While the hotly anticipated Blue Wave of Democratic dreams failed to materialize, last night brought plenty of bad news for Donald J. Trump. The midterms repudiated the extremes of both parties while opening the door to two years of political torture for the President. This was a classic mixed verdict. As anticipated by most savvy election-watchers, Democrats took the House of Representatives, wresting it back after eight years of Republican control, while the GOP maintained their hold on the Senate, even adding to their seat total a bit. Neither case can be fairly depicted as a blowout. First, the House.

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Stalingrad approaches: Democratic House, Republican Senate

Fox News, the conservative standard-bearer, has projected the House of Representatives for the Democrats. And Republicans are doing better than expected in the Senate – their total could crest 53 seats. Compared to 1994, 2006, and 2010, this would appear a tamer reaction to an embattled president. Because of the hyped-up expectations for this elections, many on the left are going home disappointed tonight. Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams are on their way to the losers’ aisle. It’s not wrapped up yet, but a Democratic House is a Democratic House. Subpoenas and calls for impeachment from some on the Left are certain. It looks like a split decision. As Steve Bannon told the Spec on this scenario last month: ‘Stalingrad every day.

Does a Democratic House win pave the way to impeachment?

The Founding Fathers, in their wisdom created a constitution with a separation of powers. President Trump woke up this morning to the reality that one half of a co-equal branch of government – the Congress – is now in the hands of the opposition party. In normal times, this would mean the usual Washington gridlock, the constitution having been designed to be deliberately inefficient. But these are not normal times. The President’s former campaign chairman, deputy campaign chairman, national security adviser, and his personal lawyer are all awaiting sentencing on various charges. The President himself is under investigation, accused of being the creature of a hostile, foreign government.

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ron desantis florida

As Florida goes, so goes the nation?

With over 90 percent reporting, Ron DeSantis is not … messing… this up. The controversial, Trumpite Florida gubernatorial candidate has made the race for the Sunshine State a real fight. Nearly two hours in, the election remains extremely unclear. But the Republican is up in the Governor’s race, which is something of a surprise. And if Rick Scott were to steal a Senate senate for the Grand Old Party, and Congressman DeSantis were to replace him in Tallahassee, it could be a harbinger for a shock night of upset for the GOP. Florida was the true beginning of the crescendo for the Republicans in 2016. Florida went – then the Blue Wall: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

midterm results

Only an idiot would predict tonight’s midterm results. So let me oblige

If a midterm is a referendum on a presidency, it is one that presidents usually lose, especially Republican presidents. Since the Civil War, the president’s party has gained seats one only three occasions: 1934, 1998 and 2002. Only on the last of those was recipient of the public’s inexplicable affection was a Republican president, in this case George W. Bush. And in that instance the public’s affection was explicable in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. So yes, Republican losses tonight will constitute a diminution of Donald Trump’s presidency. The question is not one of nature but of degree. Will the diminution resemble a mild paddling of the kind that a pornographic actress might perform on the presidential backside with a rolled-up magazine?

elissa slotkin michigan

In Michigan, Elissa Slotkin aims squarely for the middle

Paying homage to Republican national security officials and touting your allegiance to intelligence agencies might seem like an odd strategy to channel the enthusiasm of anti-Trump voters this election cycle but it’s the course chosen by a handful of CIA-operatives-turned-Democrats with decent odds to win House seats today. Foremost among them is Elissa Slotkin, a former ‘Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy’ in the Obama administration who is quick to point out that she also served dutifully under George W. Bush, and apparently assumes that will have electoral appeal among voters in Michigan’s 8th congressional district.

jon tester montana

Will Jon Tester win in Montana?

The Democratic Party appears to see its red-state Senate races as sticky short-term exercises in triangulation and coalition-building, best conducted as far from the national spotlight as possible. It has neglected the opportunity of grouping this handful of candidates behind an assertive vision of its own future leadership in rural and small-town America. Take the Democratic senator Jon Tester, the only working farmer in the United States Senate. ‘Jon? He’s just real,’ said Martha Small, a member of the Northern Cheyenne tribe I spoke to. ‘He’s a real person. My concerns are his concerns. Public lands, Native American issues – suicide among our 18-24 youths being the number one.

forecasting midterms

Forecasting the midterms: pick your poison

Would you like to forecast a ‘better than expected night for the GOP’? Start saying things like ‘interest levels in the elections are broadly similar between the two parties — if Dems were going to have such a great night, why aren’t they ahead in this key metric?’ or, ‘remember the enthusiasm gap closed after the Kavanaugh hearings.’ On the other hand, if you want to make the case for the Blue Wave, you’ll probably find there’s even more data to help back you up. Start by looking to YouGov/CBS News’s final MRP model (the same approach that proved super accurate in last year’s UK general election) showing a likely 225-210 Democratic win in the House.

The Democratic faithful are spooked

‘Remember, remember the 5th of November/ The gunpowder treason and plot . . .’ Well, it’s not Guy Fawkes who is planning to blow up things this November. It’s our version of the Picts: blue-dyed political marauders swarming over the ramparts in Hollywood, universities, Democratic campaign offices, and woke, acronymic former news channels. If you calibrate the performances just right, it can look like a confident pep rally. ‘We’re really going to show those knuckle-dragging, toxic male Caucasian deplorables this time! Two, four, six, eight, whom do you repudiate? Trump! Trump! Trump!’ The networks and newspapers and internet sites are abuzz with polls and prognostications.

democratic faithful spooked

Why aren’t Republicans campaigning on the economy? Trump!

Friday brought boffo news for the Republicans, just four days before the midterm elections that will determine if the party keeps control of both chambers of Congress. The Wall Street Journal succinctly captured the story: ‘Wages Rise at Fastest Rate in Nearly a Decade as Hiring Jumps: Unemployment rate held at a 49-year low in October; wages increased 3.1%.’ As the story went on to explain, a few factors converged to paint a particularly positive economic picture last month. ‘Employers shook off a September slowdown to add 250,000 jobs to their payrolls in October, above monthly averages in recent years, the Labor Department said Friday. With unemployment holding at 3.7 percent, a 49-year low, and employers competing for scarce workers, wages increased 3.

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What makes a blue wave?

On Tuesday, American voters will give the president his first official performance review. There will be no opportunity to tell Donald J. Trump ‘You’re fired!’ in the reality TV verbiage he relishes – that will have to wait two more years – setbacks for the Republicans in Congress will inevitably be interpreted negatively for The Donald, who has pulled out the stops exhorting his loyal fanbase to the polls on November 6. But will it happen? American political history is filled with stern midterm rebukes for presidents, especially Democrats who get ahead of their skis like Bill Clinton in 1994 or Barack Obama in 2010, when their party lost 54 and 63 seats in the House of Representatives, respectively.

andrew gillum blue wave