Read about the latest political news, views and analysis
12 min listen
Boris Johnson admitted in the House of Commons today that he is breaking the manifesto promise of not raising taxes in order to get rid of the NHS waiting list and fund social care, but will this move work for the Prime Minister politically. Katy Balls and James Forsyth discuss.
Something perfect at the death of summer: Emma Raducanu in full flight, smoking winners up the lines and progressing without dropping a set into the last eight of the US Open at the improbable age of 18. The very best, in tennis as in all sports, almost without exception, make it look beautiful – it’s why we can’t take our eyes off them (because beauty is an element-bending superpower). Raducanu makes playing tennis look beautiful. As she waits to receive serve, poised and utterly focused, it can appear as if she has arrived on court straight from the pages of a fashion magazine.
It was less than a fortnight ago that Steerpike wrote of Australia's various missteps in its long fight with Covid. Since then, the (not so) Lucky Country has introduced a smorgasbord of extra restrictions to add to its various rules and regulations already in place, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison himself admitting that 'this is not a sustainable way to live in this country.' Below Mr S presents his list of some of the more egregious of these... Tracking Few Covid innovations have generated as many headlines as that of South Australia's home-based quarantine. The state has developed and is now testing an app to enforce its quarantine rules which – in the words of the Atlantic – is as 'Orwellian as any in the free world'.
Are we heading for a 1970s-style inflationary spiral? Not according to Catherine Mann, former chief economist at Citigroup, who argues that we are now less exposed to fluctuations in oil prices than we were then. She also makes the case that businesses are more reluctant to put up prices and that the link between inflation and wages is weaker than it was in the years of high inflation when wages often rose three or four times a year and prices in the shops were jacked up more frequently than now. Her opinion matters because she is the latest recruit to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, which is charged with setting interest rates to try to keep inflation within set limits.
Boris Johnson has just announced his plans to increase National Insurance by 1.25 per cent for both workers and employers to fund extra spending on the NHS and social care. Johnson framed the measure as necessary to deal with the backlog that had built up during Covid. He claimed that without action hospital waiting lists would reach 13 million. He said that he didn’t break his manifesto promise lightly but that a ‘global pandemic was in no one’s manifesto’. Of course, the problem with this argument is that the tax promise, as well as the commitment that no one would have to sell their house to pay for social care, were always going to be incompatible.
Outrage over the government’s National Insurance hike is wholly justified. It is absurd to have the working-age population foot the bill for social care while those over state pension age with substantial incomes and assets don't contribute. It is regressive, reneges on a 2019 manifesto pledge and is nothing more than a sticking plaster to heal the festering wound that is our social care system. As for employer NI, this is a crude payroll tax that discourages employment at the margin and which will translate into lower wages down the line. But the insistence by inter-generational warriors that we increasingly live in a gerontocracy, where the needs of the young are perpetually disregarded, is less convincing.
The sun is beating down again, the waves are less choppy in the English Channel and the small boats full of irregular migrants are pouring across once more. At least 1,000 men, women and children were reportedly spotted landing on the south coast yesterday. If these numbers are correct, it would have shattered the previous daily record of 828, recorded on 21 August. But Home Office sources were today briefing that was an over-estimate and the likely official number will be about 740, merely the second highest daily total ever. The graphs plotting the staggering acceleration of this traffic make grim reading indeed – this is one curve that has never been flattened.
Boris Johnson's announcement today, promising he will fix the £15 billion hole in health and social care, may well be the decision that determines his and his party's fate at the next election — and, by implication, Keir Starmer's reaction will also determine his destiny. Probably the most important point is that after the 18 months we've had, most people would argue that putting the NHS and care for the elderly and vulnerable on a stable financial footing should be the Prime Minister's number one priority.
Is Boris Johnson's social care plan about to sail through the House of Commons? Today the Prime Minister will unveil the details of the package he is proposing. After putting his plans to the cabinet, it will be set out in the Commons before a 5 p.m. press conference where Johnson will appear alongside Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid. There are rumours afoot that No. 10 then may opt for a vote in the Commons this week at short notice — in a bid to push the plans through before the rebels have time to get organised. However, slightly raining on Johnson's parade is the fact that cabinet ministers have so far been kept out of the loop.
The new £5.4 billion cash boost for NHS England is the easy bit of a very tricky situation for the health service and the politicians trying to work out how to deal with it. As Health Secretary Sajid Javid made clear on Monday, while the money will help deal with the backlog in treatment caused by the pandemic, it won’t do so immediately. He said that waiting lists would go up before they started to go down because people are still coming forward for treatment. Javid has been pitch-rolling for a dreadful winter ever since he took on the job, warning almost immediately that waiting lists could reach 13 million. Currently there are over five million people needing operations and other NHS services.
Cabinet government has become a very degraded thing. When I checked last night, cabinet ministers had still not been told whether the PM's planned breaches of his 2019 manifesto would even be on the formal agenda for discussion at the 8.30 a.m. cabinet meeting today. But as of last night, Boris Johnson is going ahead with: a manifesto-breaking 1.
Boris Johnson took a strangely upbeat tone when he updated MPs on Afghanistan this afternoon. He argued that British planning for the US withdrawal had been months in the making and that the evacuation effort had exceeded expectations with twice the number of people getting out than had been expected. He even made some big promises, saying repeatedly that every MP who had contacted the Foreign Office about Afghans who still need assistance would receive a response 'by close of play today', and adding that councils taking in refugees would get the funding they needed. Johnson was even rather combative with Defence Select Committee chair Tobias Ellwood, scolding him for not appearing to acknowledge that the British military activity in the country had ended in 2014.
Oh dear. Longtime readers will recall that it was just three years ago that the Conservative conference app was revealed to have a major security flaw. The private data of senior party members – including cabinet ministers – was accessible to anyone that logged in as that particular conference attendee, with the phone numbers of Boris Johnson and others being made accessible. Johnson's picture was changed to one featuring a pornographic image; Michael Gove's to that of his formerTimes boss Rupert Murdoch. Three years on, attendees for next month's conference will be hoping security measures have been enhanced – especially as this year's shindig is likely to require all attendees to show proof of vaccination.
18 min listen
With Texas's controversial new 'heartbeat' law seemingly left unchallenged by the Supreme Court the abortion debate is hotting up in the States yet again. Will this success lead the pro-life movement to attempt to get similar laws on the books in other states? Freddy Gray talks to Mairead Elordi, an investigative journalist for the Daily Wire.
Hilary Mantel knows her history. Her trilogy of novels on the life of Thomas Cromwell made that clear. Those dazzlingly successful books brought Tudor history to life in all its monstrous glory. So it's a tad surprising that Ms Mantel appears not to understand the history of the European Union. This brilliant mind seems to think this political body, which has only been in existence since 1992, is synonymous with Europe itself, which has been around for a fair bit longer than that. Ms Mantel has got diehard Remainers hot under the collar with comments she made in an interview with La Repubblica. She slammed Brexit as the handiwork of politicians who are 'callow opportunists, insincere and devious, and often ridiculous'. As for Boris Johnson — he 'should not be in public life'.
The modern world has an unfortunate habit of making life difficult for those working to keep us safe. For the police, security services and others, so many inventions seem to be created just to make it more difficult for them to see who’s up to no good. Take envelopes, for one. Envelopes make it much fiddlier to see what’s in the letters we send to one another – and they could show anything: that envelope could contain financial fraud, revenge porn, or even be plotting a murder. What is it hiding? Modern Britain is unreasonable to state snoopers in so many other ways too. Inconsiderately we put locks on our doors, with no regard for how much more difficult this will make things if the authorities need to get into our home.
11 min listen
With the vaccine secretary Nadhim Zahawi declaring on the radio that the Conservatives were a 'party of fair taxation', could the government be looking at rebellion from its right with its new plans for tackling the social care crisis? Katy Balls in conversation with James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman.
For much of its 58-year long existence, the scientists who sat on the government's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) lived a life of happy obscurity. But now the poor men and women who make up its membership have been thrust into the limelight amid furious Whitehall rows over whether 12 to 15 year-olds should be given the Covid vaccine. Members of Boris Johnson's government are said to disagree with the JCVI's rulings but have had their hands tied by the committee's status as a statutory basis for giving advice in England and Wales – though intriguingly not Northern Ireland or Scotland. Judging by Nicola Sturgeon's recent comments however, you would be forgiven for not knowing this distinction.
It is a curious thing to exclude a vast group of generally quite well-heeled voters from funding a policy innovation that they will benefit from more than any other group. One might almost call it blatant favouritism. But Boris Johnson’s plan to pay for a big increase in resources going into social care long-term and the NHS short-term amounts to just that. By opting for a National Insurance increase to fund his proposals, the PM is ensuring that nobody over the state pension age of 66 will have to put their hands in their pockets. Neither will the extra financial burden fall on so-called 'unearned' income such as dividends on shares or interest on savings. Instead, working people under 66 will suffer a direct hit to their pay packet.
There used to be a saying: ‘never discuss religion or politics’. That was just a societal rule, a prudent tip for an enjoyable evening. But that principle is also in our constitution. This is a fact recognised by the Supreme Court — and particularly by Lord Sumption — earlier this year. Sharing your political opinions is, for some people, a breach of constitutional obligations. The UK is odd, some think, in having the constitution that we do. Far younger states with bright and shiny constitutions, written in single documents, seem to look down on our frumpy older version.