World

Sunday

John Jenkins

What Iran will do now

The fact is, no one knows where this war ends. Overnight, the United States entered the conflict, bombing a series of targets across Iran. What happens next is difficult to predict. All we can really say for certain about this situation is where it began. And that was on 1 February 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran – by courtesy of Air France – from Neauphle-le-Château, where he had been resident since his expulsion from Najaf in Iraq a few months earlier. Left alone, it is almost certain that Iran would seek to reconstruct its nuclear programme Khomeini had inveighed against Israel and Zionism (not always distinguishing either from Jews

Daniel DePetris

Prepare for Iran to retaliate

On Thursday, President Trump gave Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the regime he has led for more than 35 years an ultimatum: start negotiating over your nuclear programme, or face the full consequences. He would allow another two weeks, at most, for Tehran to prove its willingness to negotiate sincerely.  The armchair warriors on cable TV news are gloating about how great the operation turned and how resolute Trump proved to be, but none appear particularly interested in the first, second and third order effects of the decision The two weeks, however, was only two days. Trump’s decision to drop 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Fordow, Iran’s deeply-buried underground

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Trump’s Iran strike is a victory for the free world

Tel Aviv To America and Israel, the free world owes a debt – for courage, for clarity, for doing what had to be done. When the moment came, they did not hesitate. They bore the weight, braved the cost, and moved with the strength history demands. When Israel first struck inside Iran nine days ago, its government made a fateful decision: to sound the sirens and send its people into bomb shelters across the country. It was a moment of collective alertness, a signal that the threat was near and real. Last night, there were no sirens. No mass alerts. Most of Israel slept soundly as the United States acted with

Bartek Staniszewski

Why conservatives should embrace their Christian heritage

The heydays of Christian influence over European politics may seem long gone. In the UK, after the most recent general election, four-tenths of all MPs took secular affirmations – up from less than a quarter in 2019 – while in Europe, parties with explicitly Christian foundations often seem embarrassed about their religious heritage as they tumble down the polls. Yet Christians have not stopped turning up for those parties. To play to its strengths and resolve its identity crisis, the centre-right should embrace its Christian inheritance. By returning to this Christian inheritance, the centre-right can offer a vision that is compelling to all and re-establish its dominance Even as the

Saturday

Ian Williams

Why is China rushing to grow its nuclear arsenal?

China is growing its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than any other country on the planet, according to new figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It estimates that Beijing now has more than 600 nuclear warheads and is adding about 100 per year to its stockpile. That means that by 2035, it will have more than 1,500 warheads, still only a third of the arsenal of each of Russia and the US, but nevertheless an enormous increase and a marked shift away from its proclaimed policy of ‘minimum deterrence’. To facilitate this expanding arsenal, China is building fields of new missile silos in its western desert

Senay Boztas

Is Dutch tolerance dying?

Campaigners across southern Europe are protesting against ‘touristification’. Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, wealthy expats are in the firing line. Businesses in Amsterdam could be asked to foot the bill for local housing if they employ highly-skilled internationals. Alongside paranoia about asylum seekers, there is a rising feeling that expats and even holidaymakers are unwelcome in parts of the continent. The Netherlands was once an outward-looking, tolerant, trader nation. Is that still the case? It’s not much fun to live in a place – or even visit somewhere – that resents your presence, especially if you have bothered to learn the local language and swallowed the high tax rates that fund

Friday

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Trump’s two-week delay will unsettle Iran

In a statement relayed by press secretary Karoline Leavitt, the White House declared that President Donald Trump would decide ‘within the next two weeks’ whether to join Israel’s air campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities. In isolation, it might seem a routine delay – an effort to keep diplomatic channels open, to stage manage an American entry into the conflict or even to row back on Trump’s previous gung-ho position. But by now we should all be attuned to Trump’s history and methods, and appreciate that this declaration could in fact carry a more intricate calculus. Beneath its surface lies a lattice of strategic ambiguity, political choreography and psychological pressure. With this

Alexander Kolyandr

Has Putin pushed the Russian economy to its limits?

The remarkable resurgence the Russian economy has experienced since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is losing momentum. Where once Putin could boast about 4.3 per cent growth rates for two years in a row – thumbing his nose at Western sanctions with all the aplomb of a man who’d discovered alchemy – the numbers now tell a somewhat different story. The party, as they say, is over – and the time to crank up sanctions against Moscow has come. For two years running, Putin’s propagandists have crowed about Russia’s economic vitality as proof that Western sanctions were about as effective as a chocolate teapot. The economy’s steroid-fuelled growth, pumped up

Ian Williams

Has Ursula von der Leyen seen the light on China?

Coming from an American politician, the accusations would have been unsurprising. Beijing is unwilling to ‘live within the constraints of the rules-based international system’ and its trade policy is one of ‘distortion with intent’. It splashes subsidies with abandon, undercuts intellectual property protections, and as for China’s membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), that was probably a mistake too. It is bold of von der Leyen to raise the WTO, and it will be intriguing to see how she is greeted at the EU-China leaders’ summit Yet this tirade came not from an acolyte of Donald Trump, but from Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission

Maurizio Geri

Is Iran about to choke the West's energy supply?

Nato has learned nothing from Russia’s energy blackmail – and Iran is about to prove it. With precision warheads and hypersonic payloads tearing Israeli and Iranian skies, you might think we’re witnessing the next frontier in modern warfare. But it’s an old game, played with old rules. And once again, Tehran reaches for its well-worn lever of power: energy blackmail. Already, markets are twitching. Crude has jumped over 10 per cent Senior Iranian officials, including Revolutionary Guard commander Esmail Kowsari, have warned that, if Israeli attacks continue, Tehran will not only exit the non-proliferation treaty (thus tearing up its last fig-leaf of nuclear restraint), but will also close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s

Kunwar Khuldune Shahid

Why Muslim-majority countries have turned against Iran

Swift condemnations have poured in from the Muslim world castigating Israel for bombing Iran. The UAE condemned Israel ‘in the strongest terms’, Jordan spoke up against Israeli attacks ‘threatening regional stability’, Saudi Arabia denounced ‘blatant Israeli aggressions’, Turkey espoused ‘an end to Israel’s banditry’, while various Muslim diplomatic groups, including the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), demanded ‘international action’ against the Jewish State. But cloaked underneath this predictably farcical rhetoric of ‘Muslim unity’ are the evolving interests of many of these states, which today align seamlessly with Israel. Saudi Arabia has described ‘evil’ Iran as the ‘head of the snake’ In Israel’s immediate neighbourhood, Lebanese officials are blocking the depleted Iranian jihadist proxy Hezbollah from taking action against Israel. Meanwhile, the Ahmed al-Sharaa-led Syria,

Thursday

Freddy Gray

Who is Trump listening to on Iran?

Freddy Gray speaks to Kelley Vlahos DC-based writer, editor and senior advisor at the Quincy Institute about the developing situation between Israel, Iran and America. The President has warned that despite winning the electorate over on an ‘America First’ mandate, the US armed force may intervene on Iran. Freddy and Kelley discuss who Trump is being advised by and why the American people could turn on him should Trump wade into the conflict.

Jonathan Spyer

Only regime change will solve the problem of Iran

The Middle East currently stands at a crossroads. The future geopolitical balance and perhaps also the historical direction of the region depend on the outcome of the war currently underway between Israel and Iran. With the US poised on the cusp of possible intervention, it’s important to grasp the nature and dimension of what is at stake.   To understand the weight of the present moment, it is necessary to accurately define the nature of the current conflict and its roots. This is a war not only or primarily between states. It is a conflict between systems of governance and between rival visions of the region.   The objective needs to

Charlie Gammell

Striking Fordow will not solve the Iran problem

The world is watching Donald Trump to see if he will give his military the green light to use one of America’s most deadly weapons, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (Mop), to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at Fordow. As a man with a seemingly inexhaustible need for attention, this is a gratifying position for him to be in. But a potentially dangerous one for the rest of us. ‘Trump doesn’t have a taste for war,’ someone said to me recently. ‘War’s bad for business.’ This appears to be true so far; we have certainly seen Trump try his hand at peace-making in Gaza, Ukraine and Iran with consistently poor results.

Seth J. Frantzman

Have Iran’s kamikaze drones become redundant?

Over the last decade Iran has built up an impressive arsenal of kamikaze drones which can slam into targets more than 2,000 km away. Iran thought that in war it would be able to use these drones for massed attacks, and when Israel attacked Iran in the early hours of June 13, Tehran duly responded by launching its drone army. Yet so far its drones have been unable to terrorise Israel. By June 15, the Israel Defence Forces said they had intercepted more than 100. It seemed like drones would be to warfare what the torpedo bomber was to ships at Pearl Harbor While Iranian ballistic missiles may have penetrated Israel

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Will Trump pull the trigger and strike Iran?

This morning’s sirens shattered the early calm across much of Israel. Quiet anticipation had already been building, as signs pointed to a long anticipated American entry into the conflict, but no one yet knows when, or if, it will truly come. It had been a relatively quiet night; after a brief stint in the bomb shelter around midnight, I had managed to sleep uninterrupted until around 7 a.m. when the Home Front Command app sent the ‘pre-alert’ warning. A sign of how quickly you adapt, I first warmed up the Gaggia and made myself an espresso, before entering the shelter in our building as the sirens began to wail through

James Tidmarsh

Why the fatwa against Gabriel Attal is so dangerous

An imam at the Grand Mosque of Massy, just outside Paris, has threatened to issue a fatwa against former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, head of Macron’s party Renaissance, for his proposal to ban the hijab for girls under 15. In a video that has gone viral in France, the imam declared that Attal is ‘pushing us to issue a fatwa’ and that ‘I will be the one to dictate it’. His words have sparked outrage on the right. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has referred the matter to the courts, and Attal himself is weighing legal action. The left meanwhile remains mostly quiet. Across France, a growing network of activist preachers,

Benedict Rogers

What is Britain doing to help free Aung San Suu Kyi?

In a prison cell in the middle of Myanmar (Burma), isolated from other prisoners, sits an elderly woman who marks her 80th birthday today. She is serving a 27-year sentence. Yet she is no ordinary 80-year-old. Today, she should be approaching the end of her second term as de facto head of her country’s government, having won an overwhelming election victory almost five years ago. She should be thinking about retirement and handing over the reins to the next generation to take her country’s democracy further. Instead, she has spent the past four years in jail after her elected government was overthrown in a military coup on 1 February 2021,

Douglas Murray

What else could Israel do?

Over the past few days British readers have been able to enjoy a number of hot takes on the situation in the Middle East. First, there have been all the politicians, such as the Scottish First Minister John Swinney, who have called for our government to step in and ‘de-escalate’ the conflict between Israel and Iran. But even leaving aside whether the mullahs in Tehran can be swayed by Britain or Scotland, ‘de-escalation’ is the only surefire way to ensure that they continue to pursue a nuclear capability. Elsewhere, the BBC has been playing a blinder. When the conflict began, it decided that its audience would be well served by

Justin Marozzi

Toppling Iran’s Supreme Leader could be a mistake

Are we already seeing an ominous mission creep in Israel’s blistering attack on Iran? First, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s air assault was all about ending Iran’s covert nuclear weapons programme, a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency declared Tehran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. Then, within a few hours of launching ‘one of the greatest military operations in history’, Netanyahu was telling Iranians that Israel was ‘clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom’. Encouraging them to ‘stand up’ and overthrow the ‘evil and oppressive’ government of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he noted that Israel had been friends with Iran since the time of Cyrus the Great, founder