If Keir Starmer’s trip to China seemed unfathomable, then his follow-on visit to Tokyo today is even more mysterious. ‘Why on earth is he here?’ the Japanese are asking (those that have noticed he is here that is). There doesn’t seem to be any pressing business for the Prime Minister to discuss with his Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi right now. If it is just a courtesy call, then it’s rather a discourteous one since the timing, for her, is terrible.
Wags here are calling the visit a ‘boondoggle’, claiming Starmer just wants to enjoy the cheap shopping
Takaichi faces a make or break snap-election on 8 February. She is seeking to win an outright majority in the lower house and thus a mandate for her ambitious policy platform. Current polling has her on course to do so but nobody here is confident – especially after the bond markets lurched and interest rates spiked last week in response to her controversial fiscal stimulus plans. Her sky-high approval ratings of around 70 per cent have recently slipped, too.
The bottom line: Takaichi is popular but her Liberal Democratic party is not. How that will manifests on the 8th is hard to predict. Takaichi remains bullish but, if this turns into the election that goes wrong, she could find herself in the bulging ‘where are they now?’ file of failed Japanese PMs after a mere four months in office.
In such circumstances, to give up a full day to accommodate a visiting British PM seems like a poor use of her time. Wags here are calling the visit a ‘boondoggle’, claiming Starmer is little more than a tourist who wants to enjoy the cheap shopping (the weak Yen has made Japan an unlikely budget destination). Back in Britain, it has been suggested he doesn’t want to come home to face the increasingly discordant music from his own party after the Andy Burnham fallout.
The most plausible rationale for this visit, which was requested by the UK, is simply optics. As Grant Newsham, the first US Marine Liaison Officer to the Japan Self-Defense Force, told the Taiwan Talks news show, by tagging on a visit to Japan, Starmer can claim that the optically problematic trip to China was part of a wider Asian tour. This would make the ‘kowtowing’ in Beijing – where Newsham said Starmer looked like a ‘guilty schoolboy being led away to detention’ – less egregious.
For Takaichi, there is very little apparent benefit. But she is an Anglophile (she has spoken about her admiration for Margaret Thatcher) and will get some enjoyment from again presenting herself as an in-demand stateswoman courted by the world’s leaders. She has already hosted Donald Trump and Italy’s premier Giorgia Meloni, and exploited the PR value of those visits to the max (a manga cartoon picture was released of Takaichi and Meloni). The Japanese government buildings in Shinjuku will be lit up with the colours of the Union Jack for Starmer’s jaunt. No doubt there will be other little stunts, though perhaps no manga. Maybe Starmer will try to charm his hosts with a few words of Japanese – a stilted, nasally ‘arigatou’ perhaps.
There is an official agenda, of course, and officially the two leaders will ‘confirm cooperation on economic and defense security issues’. The Taiwan problem will overshadow and inform much of the serious business. Takaichi’s controversial comments that Japan would respond with military force if the island was attacked sparked turbulence that has not yet subsided. China has applied export controls on dual-use items (both civilian and military) in the wake of the row. Takaichi is expected to explain Japan’s position on Taiwan and seek Starmer’s understanding, while also strengthening supply chains.
Militarily, the two countries have come closer in recent years. The Reciprocal Access Agreement in 2023 enabled faster deployment of military forces for joint training and exercises. The Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales visited for exercises in August last year. There is also the trinational fighter jet program with Italy, the Global Combat Air Programme, which promises to deliver a sixth-generation stealth fighter by 2035. Much has been made of this initiative as it points towards a future Japan potentially less reliant on its historic security alliance with the US.
This all sounds meaningful – but a key development contract for the jets has still not been signed. Even if the jets are eventually delivered (and doubts remain over how the project will be financed), it’s not clear if they will be superior to Chinese technology at the time. As for the UK helping to supplant the US as Japan’s defender, this is laughable. The Prince of Wales’s visit looked impressive until it was reported that the ship needed considerable assistance – including fuel, ammunition and food – from the US navy to make the trip. Whatever is said in the ‘summit meeting’ or ‘working dinner’ won’t change these stark realities. Or anything much.
The Japanese have a polite expression for visitors: ‘O-jama shimasu.’ You say it when you arrive and it means: ‘The nuisance is here.’ Starmer should give it a go when he meets Takaichi. It might at least get him a laugh.
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