Well, well, well. For all the head-scratching that it initially occasioned, President Trump’s hasty abandonment of “Project Freedom” – his grandly titled plan to open the Strait of Hormuz – turns out not to be so mysterious after all. Trump’s reversal, NBC News revealed late yesterday, came at the behest of America’s Gulf allies, foremost among them Riyadh which told Washington that it would suspend the US military’s right to use its airspace. Now Trump, who has described his current exchanges with Iran as “very good,” is breathing optimism about a one-page peace memorandum that he claims will be completed by the end of the week. Iran, by contrast, merely says that Trump’s proposal is “under review.”
Iran has scant reason to capitulate
Trump is demanding, among other things, that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium on nuclear enrichment; that it dismantle the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear facilities; and that it surrenders its enriched nuclear material. It seems unlikely that Iran, a past master at conducting negotiations at a glacial pace, will accede to Trump’s wish-list.
Who has the cards? The damage that Iran has apparently inflicted upon American military bases is much more extensive than the administration has been prepared to concede – hangars, aircraft, fuel depots, barracks, radar and air defense equipment have all been struck. And given that Iran knows that the Gulf allies are wearying of the conflict and stymieing Trump from conducting military operations, it has scant reason to capitulate.
Even the mere prospect of a permanent cessation of hostilities, however, is enough to cause heartburn among some MAGA diehards. Take the influential pundit Hugh Hewitt. Hewitt, who hosted the President on his show a few days ago, where Trump described the war as “already won,” is claiming that the one-page memorandum represents a potential Munich 2.0 deal. “At this point,” Hewitt said, “I think it’s in Israel’s interests to act against Iran in a way that blows up this deal.” Israel struck Hezbollah in Lebanon yesterday for the first time since the ceasefire was agreed. But reigniting the conflict with Iran itself would have the effect of further undermining support for Israel in America.
Already Trump is confronting a nasty split in his ranks that could affect the Republican party’s electoral fortunes in November. Both the Washington Post and the New York Times ran pieces yesterday about the ructions over Israel that the GOP is experiencing. The notion that Trump is the cat’s-paw of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been gaining currency among certain precincts on the right. Fostered by Tucker Carlson and others, it exempts Trump from culpability for embarking upon what increasingly resembles a new forever war. Instead, a gullible Trump becomes the victim of a nefarious Netanyahu.
The truth is that Trump remains a sultan of swagger. He remains in total command of the GOP, as his ouster of five of seven state legislators who sought reelection in Indiana on Tuesday demonstrates. But as his remarks during an event honoring military mothers at the White House yesterday underscored, his overconfidence has led him to cling to a mirage when it comes to the Middle East. “I call it a skirmish,” he said. “We’re doing unbelievably well as we did in Venezuela. It was rapid, over in one day. We’re pretty much doing equally well, I would say… It’s going very smoothly. They want to make a deal. They want to negotiate.”
So does Trump. For him Iran is a sideshow. The main act is in Washington where Trump has his eye on the upcoming festivities that will mark America’s 250th anniversary. The Air Force is finishing work on the Boeing 747 – it’s being painted red, white, dark blue and gold – that was given to him by Qatar. A flyover of the White House is planned for July 4.
Another highlight that Trump announced yesterday as part of the celebrations is a planned Ultimate Fighting Championship contest on the White House lawn on June 14. The renderings that Trump displayed in the Oval Office of “UFC Freedom 250” include provisions for a 4,000-seat arena and an octagon cage. In addition, eight large television screens will be placed on the White House Ellipse where another 100,000 spectators can cheer on the modern-day gladiators. “This will be the greatest show on earth,” Trump promised. O tempora, o mores!
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