Good evening. It is now 67 days since Keir Starmer stated that ‘every minute that we are not talking about the cost of living’ is ‘a minute wasted’. Well, we’ve barely heard about it since, so that’s 96,480 minutes wasted.
Events do have a habit of upsetting things. This week it has been the activities of three alpha male egos unsettling people who were once friends and allies, and turning politics upside down.
Starmer has just accused Donald Trump of ‘insulting and frankly appalling’ comments which ‘diminished’ the sacrifice of British soldiers killed in Afghanistan, after the President claimed Nato forces avoided the frontlines. This was fresh from his threats to seize Greenland by force (and then backing off). There were similar words of condemnation from Kemi Badenoch.
Also this afternoon, Robert Jenrick released text messages from the Tory chief whip Rebecca Harris, calling him a ‘bloodsucker’ who deserved ‘a really special place in hell’. This was not even for defecting to Reform, but after he wrote an article in March 2024 suggesting parts of the foreign aid budget should be redirected to the armed forces, something which is now Tory policy.
There is far from a non-zero chance Burnham ducks the challenge
‘This is actual feedback – leave the party and be a commentator,’ Harris added. Jenrick released the texts after Badenoch declared ‘He’s lying’ about the exchange. Harris got her wish. Many Tories are understandably furious with Jenrick, but this is not a great look for Harris.
Finally, the world waits again to see whether serial bottler Andy Burnham will put himself forward as a potential prime minister by fighting the upcoming by-election in the Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton, where the incumbent Andrew Gwynne is standing down.
Gwynne formally quit just before 5 p.m., so the game is now afoot and time is running out for the King in the North to make his mind up. The seat now looks like a three-way marginal between Labour, Reform and the Greens. Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC), chaired by the home secretary Shabana Mahmood, has the power to decide who goes on the shortlist to be their candidate.
The consensus of Labour MPs, ministers and aides I have spoken to in the last 48 hours is that Burnham would stand a decent chance of parlaying his local popularity into a win, particularly if he campaigned explicitly to replace Starmer, who is the least popular prime minister ever.
However, it’s not certain. One wise owl said: ‘He should wait for a seat to come up in Liverpool since that is the only place in Britain where Labour is guaranteed to win a by-election.’
My sources also think, on balance, that it would be a poor use of the Prime Minister’s fast-evaporating political capital to try to block him. But Starmer and his chief aide Morgan McSweeney may not need to throw their weight around.
Jessica Elgot of the Guardian contacted several NEC members earlier today and they all described Burnham’s chances of becoming the candidate as ‘zero’. A parliamentary ally of Mahmood said: ‘She will do what is in the national interest,’ which you can take any way you please.
Even if he did get cleared to stand as a candidate, there is far from a non-zero chance Burnham ducks the challenge. One source put him turning tail out at more than 50 per cent even if he had a clear run, which it looks like he does not.
Another called Burnham ‘BACO’, a version of TACO (‘Trump always chickens out’). ‘The defining characteristic of Andy when he was a minister was that he could not make decisions,’ says one Labour minister.
But politics has a way of punishing politicians who don’t seize the passing vine when it wafts past their nose. Just ask David Miliband. And so we wait.
Starmer is undoubtedly wildly unpopular, but there is a salutary lesson for Burnham in focus groups conducted this week on Jenrick’s defection to Reform. Luke Tryl of More in Common quizzed 2024 Tory voters in two seats, Warrington in the North West and Godalming & Ash in Surrey, many of whom have now defected to Reform in the former and the Lib Dems in the latter.
It revealed again that voters don’t much like divided parties and that leaders taking a strong stand can win support. Shown a video of Badenoch sacking Jenrick, Valerie, a receptionist from Warrington said: ‘I think she came across very strong and decisive, and I think if the Conservative party are going to do better, we need to hear more from her.’
James, an IT engineer from Warrington, added: ‘She was very decisive about it, but I think from the outside, the rival parties can maybe see it as a bit of chaos inside the party. And maybe it’s not a good look.’
After viewing Jenrick’s resignation speech, there was also scepticism of a politician apparently out for himself, something which would doubtless be levelled at Burnham too. Allie from Godalming called Jenrick a ‘drama queen’ for his downbeat vision of broken Britain.
Sarah, an admin officer, thought him guilty of ‘scaremongering’ but agreed he was right that the next government would be ‘make or break’ for the country. Helen, an admin assistant from Warrington said he had ‘spit [his] dummy out’.
As we approach the weekend, perhaps the most telling comment, as we all obsess over another dramatic week in politics, is that this makes us abnormal. As Matt, an office manager from Godalming, noted: ‘I don’t think anyone will really remember him, to be honest with you. Not with all the Beckham thing going on!’
And with that, I’m off to watch a more fun version of The Traitors.
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