There will not be another referendum on Scottish independence if the SNP wins a majority in May’s devolved elections. We can be certain of this because John Swinney has said there will be one and, as my old granny used to say, I wouldn’t believe a word he says if the Pope had just heard his confession.
Keir Starmer will simply do what his predecessors did: tell the SNP to bog off
The SNP leader was questioned on his independence strategy by ITV Border’s Kieran Andrews, who asked him to ‘guarantee 100 per cent’ his campaign rhetoric about a parliamentary majority for the Nationalists leading to another vote on breaking up Britain. Swinney told him:
‘Yes, because that’s what happened in 2011. It’s important that at the heart of this is a democratic question of the right of the people of Scotland to decide their own future. That’s been accepted in the past and it should be accepted in the future.’
It won’t be accepted. Swinney knows it won’t be accepted. He’s just banking on independence supporters being dumb enough to fall for it and dutifully give the SNP their vote yet again. Some of them will, because a section of independence supporters have IQs that could double for a temperature reading in Aberdeen. This still won’t bring Swinney’s party a majority in the Holyrood elections but it might save a few seats. The Nationalists are all but guaranteed to remain the largest party come May. Scottish Labour stood its best chance yet of ending the SNP’s 19-year reign in the Edinburgh parliament, but its poll numbers have been dropping like American bombs on Caracas military bases.
So Swinney is trying to shore up his vote the only way modern-day SNP leaders know how: breaking the glass and hitting the independence button. There was already a referendum in 2014, you might remember, and a majority of Scots chose to remain British. The SNP refuses to accept the outcome and wants to keep holding referendums until they win. Unfortunately, the Westminster government is not so keen and has consistently denied another plebiscite. Nicola Sturgeon – remember her? – tried going to the Supreme Court but they told her where to go. This leaves Swinney with nothing but the same old pattern about ‘democracy’ demanding another referendum.
Democracy demands no such thing. I addressed this argument a few years ago, pointing out that, far from being improper or unusual, refusing to hold secession referendums is the norm across the democratic world. States are not obliged to cooperate in their own dismantling. Those who insist otherwise are not only wrong on the facts, they are typically rank hypocrites. Most would balk at the idea of Scots being given a say on capital punishment or immigration numbers or gender identity policy. Democracy is when the public does what it’s told and votes the right way on the right issues.
There will be no second referendum after May. Keir Starmer will simply do what his predecessors did: tell the SNP to bog off. The constitution is reserved and the government has enough woes without risking a political crisis and going down in history as the ministry that lost Scotland. John Swinney’s referendum guarantee is a cynical electoral ploy. It won’t happen and more fool anyone who falls for it.
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