Josh Simons, the MP for Makerfield, has decided to stand aside and resign his seat so that Andy Burnham can fight a by-election and return to Parliament as a candidate for the Labour leadership. Burnham has just confirmed that he is seeking permission from the ruling National Executive Committee to stand.
This is a high-stakes gamble for everyone involved. But then, in Labour politics right now, everything is
Makerfield sits next door to Leigh, the parliamentary seat Andy Burnham used to hold. But it is far from safe territory. Simons won it at the last general election with a majority of only around 6,000 over Reform. Nigel Farage’s party will contest this seat with all guns blazing. Most of the recent MRP superpolls put this down as a firm Reform win.
In the eight Makerfield wards contested at the local elections, these were the results:
Reform: 50.4 per cent
Labour: 22.7 per cent
Green: 10.9 per cent
Conservative: 9.9 per cent
Lib Dem: 3.8 per cent
Other: 2.2 per cent
Farage has just said: ‘We look forward to the contest and we will throw absolutely everything at it.’ He would be well advised to pick a hyper local candidate, perhaps a small businessman who used to vote Labour, and depict Burnham as a carpetbagger and Labour as a party that ‘takes your vote for granted’.
The roughly 1,600 Green votes from 2024 might migrate to Labour if those voters believe Burnham would take the party in a more leftward direction, but the danger must be just as great that the resurgent Greens take votes from Labour. Some of the 4,300 Conservative votes in Makerfield would likely move tactically for Reform, with the explicit purpose of keeping Burnham out of Parliament.
Burnham’s supporters argue that he enjoys a substantial personal vote across Greater Manchester that will come to his aid, and that being explicit about his desire to remove the Prime Minister may bolster his support further. But it is far from the safe proposition his backers sometimes present it as.
In his statement, Burnham said: ‘I can confirm that I will be requesting the permission of the NEC to stand in the Makerfield by-election. I grew up in this area and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people. I know they have been let down by national politics.’
After bigging up his local achievements, he said: ‘There is only so much that can be done from Greater Manchester. Much bigger change is needed at a national level if everyday life is to be made more affordable again. This is why I now seek people’s support to return to Parliament: to bring the change we have brought to Greater Manchester to the whole of the UK and make politics work properly for people. Millions are struggling and they need the Labour government to succeed.
‘It has already made changes to make life better for them in its first two years. After this week, we owe it to people to come back together as a Labour movement, giving the Prime Minister and the Government the space and stability they need as the by-election takes place.’
Burnham then praised Simons’ ‘sacrifice’ and added: ‘I truly do not take a single vote for granted and will work hard to regain the trust of people in the Makerfield constituency, many of whom have long supported our party but lost faith in recent times. We will change Labour for the better and make it a party you can believe in again.’
Steve Reed, the Housing Secretary who is Starmer’s chief cabinet cheerleader, has just been speaking at a Spectator event. He was pretty withering about the idea that Burnham is sweeping in like a superhero to save the day:
‘We live in incredibly challenging times politically. When you go to these towns we’ve been talking about just now and speak to people and the lives they’re living, it’s incredibly challenging. And there are big issues that we as politicians have to grapple with about the role of the state public services, how you support the investment infrastructure that has spread the wealth of the nation much more fairly than it has been up until now. And I think I’m genuinely not talking about one particular individual. If anyone thinks there’s a capped superhero that’s coming our way who has got all the answers to these problems, they’ve got another think coming, because these are actually challenges that we all need to resolve together.’
Rivals are already finding this entertaining. One former Number 10 Conservative insider has suggested that the genius move is this: ‘Starmer should go to Makerfield five times a week to campaign for Burnham’ – an intervention calculated to stop him winning the seat, enrage Reform and Green voters alike, and quietly scupper the whole gambit.
Simons is a fascinating figure, who was named the rising star to watch at the Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year awards in 2024. He resigned recently as a Cabinet Office minister over his role as head of Labour Together – the campaign that effectively installed Keir Starmer as Labour leader – after a dirty tricks operation against journalists at the Sunday Times who had obtained information about the organisation’s finances. A public affairs company, acting on his watch, produced a report delving into the personal background of Gabriel Pogrund, now head of Insight at the paper. Simons says the probe went much further than he had asked, but he paid the price.
The more intriguing question is what Simons knew before he pulled the trigger on his own career. He has been seen as firmly on the right of the party, but he was among the first to resign from the government and call for the Prime Minister to step down. But he is also a close ally of Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary. It is difficult to believe he would surrender his seat unless he had reason to think the NEC – coincidentally chaired by Mahmood – would give Burnham a free run. That stands in sharp contrast to the Gorton and Denton by-election, when the NEC voted nine to one against allowing Burnham to stand. Reed was tightlipped about whether Starmer will try to block him: ‘There’s a few hurdles before any particular candidate gets selected and then elected. So, I don’t think I should say too much about that.’
One further thought: could this point towards Mahmood eventually endorsing Burnham? Those who have followed what Burnham and his supporters have said about their willingness to ignore market sentiment will know that he ultimately needs a candidate for Chancellor of the Exchequer who will not frighten the bond markets. Shabana Mahmood would unquestionably fulfil that role since she’s one of the few Labour ministers who thinks there are things that should be cut from the public finances.
As for Simons himself – he is a deeply ambitious man who has his eye on the highest office. By sacrificing his seat in the interests of the soft left’s leading candidate, he becomes a considerably more palatable figure to that wing of the party. Some people will never forget a sacrifice made at the right moment. It is also likely that Burnham has agreed, explicitly or implicitly, to allow Simons to fight a safe seat – presumably further south, perhaps in London – providing him with a more comfortable base from which to rebuild his career. If a direct promise has not been made, the implication is clear enough: should Burnham reach Downing Street, a swift return to the ministerial ranks would almost certainly follow.
This is a high-stakes gamble for everyone involved. But then, in Labour politics right now, everything is.
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