Keir Starmer has tonight been forced to stall the Bill which would hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius. The legislation enabling the deal was expected to be debated in the Lords on Monday. But this evening, it was revealed that the votes have been delayed amid parliamentary ping-pong and a backlash from the Americans. Both the Conservatives and Reform UK are keen to take credit for the pause in the bill, under which Britain would give up the archipelago and lease back the Diego Garcia base.
The Conservative case for credit is on the legislative front. Peers like Lord Hannan argue that the U-turn occurred only after the Tories had put out a rare three-line Whip for Monday, with ministers concluding that their Bill would fall. Four amendments were sent by the Lords back to the Commons last week – an indication of the level of opposition in the Upper House to a deal which was not in the Labour manifesto. Tory peers are well-versed in the art of constitutional politics and choosing which battles to fight with the Commons. In Hannan’s telling, it is peers like Lord Callanan, with their expertise on procedure, who have ‘played an absolute blinder, drawing things out expertly to give opponents time to organise.’
For Reform UK, the reasons for tonight’s pause lie not in Westminster but across the Atlantic. Donald Trump has gone from being cautiously supportive of the handover – to a vitriolic public opponent. The support of the US president is viewed in Whitehall as a necessary precursor for this deal to be approved. Nigel Farage is a longtime opponent of the handover: stopping Chagos was a factor in why he chose to go to Davos this week. There he dined with Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, one of the more cerebral figures in Trumpworld, raised eyebrows this week by criticising the deal. He is believed to have credited Farage for getting this issue in Trump’s in-tray. Team Farage point to this as an example of his ‘new diplomacy’: leveraging his charisma and contacts to exert an influence traditionally denied to smaller parties.
The truth lies somewhere in between. A core of Conservative peers have manfully deployed their legislative skills in recent weeks but, as Hannan notes, ‘it is now up to Trump and the people around him.’ Nigel Farage is entitled to credit for his work speaking to the top members of the Trump administration. But Kemi Badenoch has done her part too, lobbying Mike Johnson, the US Speaker, on his visit to London at the beginning of this week. Tonight, one party is focusing on the public parliamentary battle; another on private personal connections. The Chagos backlash is a microcosm of the battle on the right: the Tories, with their expertise and institutional strength, versus Reform with the Farage factor and their ideological allies.
As for Labour, they are now left with an almighty mess on their hands. Do they proceed with a deal for which there is virtually no domestic political appetite? Or would they rather kick it into the long grass, reasoning that it would be better to preserve political capital with the Americans for the looming battles over Ukraine? Both senior officials and ministers admit to being somewhat baffled as to why so much capital is being expended on Chagos. Starmer chose to make this a foreign policy priority in his first 100 days. Should he wish to wisely now seek an off ramp, this delay offers the perfect chance to do so.
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