After Gorton and Denton, where next? The scale of the Green triumph in Manchester has sent shockwaves through Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Much has been written about looming losses in Cardiff and Edinburgh. But the Greens – with their appeal to urban professionals, young Muslims and the economically disaffected – pose a threat in the place that many took to be Labour’s strongest heartland: London.
‘We have almost as many MPs there as Scotland and Wales combined,’ notes one aide. ‘Some are getting a bit nervy.’ Jitters are understandable. For ten years, Labour has ridden a wave of post-Brexit cosmopolitan feeling to boast ever-greater gains and now has 58 MPs in Greater London. At London’s last local elections, Labour won 62 per cent of council seats. In May, between Gaza and its record in government, the party faces what one MP calls ‘a trailer for the horror show that could be 2029’ as its vote fragments. Polls suggest London Labour will lose half its 1,100 councillors.
It’s not just to the left that Labour risks losing votes. The Tories are bullish about gains in London
The Greens are among the chief beneficiaries. Their support is drawn from a crescent in the inner east of the capital: Lewisham, Hackney, Islington. Activists suggest that in these local races the first easy win is simply saying, ‘We’re not Labour’. ‘Morgan McSweeney’s lot called it “shaking off the fleas”,’ says one new Green recruit, describing the perceived strategy of Starmer’s recently departed chief of staff for getting rid of the left. ‘They’re in for a shock when they see just how much these fleas bite back.’
Some are the kind of organisers, graphic designers or artsy types who were once Labour: now they use their talents to plan Starmer’s downfall. After Gorton, other potential by-elections are being eyed up. In Hampstead, they have already selected Lorna Jane Russell to stand, should Tulip Siddiq be forced to quit over her alleged role in a Bangladeshi corruption scandal. ‘If there’s a by-election, we want to be ready,’ says Russell.
New allies have been found in an organisation called Muslim Vote, which plans to co-ordinate community networks to vote for Greens and independents across the capital. Alliances are also being struck in places like Hackney, where leaflets for the ‘Independent Socialists’ proudly bear the imprint of Zack Polanski’s party. Green literature here urges residents to vote for ‘your pro-Palestine candidates’, claiming that the local council is ‘supporting genocide in Gaza’. In Lambeth, candidates have recorded videos with titles such as ‘VOTE PALESTINE 2026’. Not all Greens are impressed by this turn: Darren Johnson, the party’s two-time London mayoral candidate, who left the party recently, joined Labour this week. Much as Labour has struggled to retain its coalition, some wonder if the Greens can last too. The party will debate a motion on whether ‘Zionism is racism’ at its spring conference – a potential flashpoint between Jewish Greens and hardline elements. Within London Labour, there are questions about what can be done to tease out these tensions, amid mooted plans for a working group on ‘exposing the Green threat’.
Green success comes at rivals’ expense. Despite years of planning, Your Party – Jeremy Corbyn’s breakaway band – might not field a single candidate in England this May. ‘It’s over. They cannot get their shit together,’ says one Your Party organiser. ‘They’ve gone straight from the People’s Front of Judea to the dead parrot,’ says another involved. Two years after winning the Rochdale by-election, the Workers Party will barely feature. George Galloway plans to spend his spring offering tours of ‘Red China’, where he now lives in exile. Elsewhere, the convicted election fraudster Lutfur Rahman is cruising to re-election in Tower Hamlets, despite his communalist ‘Aspire’ party suffering a breakaway movement.
It is not just to the left that Labour risks haemorrhaging votes. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories are bullish about gains in the capital. Her stamp duty cut and student loan relief offers are an attractive package to sell to professional thirtysomethings sick of high taxes. More than half the Tory membership is now registered to London, according to one ex-minister. National losses could be high on 7 May, but the Tories should regain both Westminster and Wandsworth.
In 1990, Ken Baker, Margaret Thatcher’s chairman, pointed to these two ‘flagship’ councils as a way of spinning defeats caused by voters’ hatred of the poll tax: expect to see similar talk by Baker’s successor Kevin Hollinrake in eight weeks’ time. The chairman has been out door-knocking hard in recent months, even bumping into Nigella Lawson just before Christmas. He was, apparently, unable to convince her to vote Conservative.
Reform UK offers a complicating factor: its mail shots suggest the party is willing to spend big in London, even if it is unlikely to win but can deny the Tories success. With Laila Cunningham as its figurehead and crime as its focus, the party eyes six potential authorities in the ‘doughnut’ of outer London. One intriguing fight will be Bromley, on the cusp of Kent, where Tories are trying to make much of Reform’s record in government. It was here that Nigel Farage first spied an opening with the white working classes while touring a council estate in a by-election two decades ago.
Eric Forth, whose death caused that contest, had a mantra: ‘There are millions of people in this country who are white, Anglo-Saxon and bigoted and they need to be represented.’ London, now just 37 per cent white British, has long had unfavourable demographics for the right. But there are still plenty of votes up for grabs. ‘Denton was a warning shot,’ says one Labour campaigner.
Elsewhere, the Lib Dems continue their slow and steady march through suburbia. Their support in London mirrors their seats at Westminster, drawn disproportionately from the affluent south. Having asphyxiated the Tories in Richmond and Kingston, the party’s guns are now trained on the crumbling Labour vote. Merton and Southwark are top targets, according to internal memos.
Faced with threats on all sides, it is no surprise that London Labour is starting to make ominous noises. Already Sadiq Khan has fired off a warning shot, demanding Starmer stop taking progressive voters for granted. His Guardian article was shared approvingly among the capital’s leading Labourites. If London mirrors Manchester, 7 May will be the Prime Minister’s capital punishment.
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