James Heale James Heale

Starmer has few good options on Iran

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Next month marks forty years since the United States bombed Libya. Ronald Reagan requested the use of British air bases for F-111s to retaliate against Colonel Gaddafi after the West Berlin discotheque bombing. Margaret Thatcher readily agreed, despite the refusal of France and other European allies. She later reflected on the episode as cementing the ‘Anglo-American alliance’, arguing ‘What’s the good of having bases if, when you want to use them, you’re not allowed to by the home country? It made America realise that Britain was her real and true friend.’

Keir Starmer has taken a rather different view of the ongoing United States action against Iran. His government has previously refused to allow the Diego Garcia or RAF Fairford bases to support any potential US strikes. After bombing began on Saturday, the Prime Minister’s initial response was to confirm that ‘the United Kingdom played no role in these strikes.’ But after Tehran began to hit back at Britain’s regional allies, Starmer agreed to allow the two aforementioned bases to now be used for ‘defensive’ strikes on Iranian missiles sites. A few hours later, it was reported that the British RAF base in Cyprus was hit by a drone strike, with no casualties reported.

Cooper says that Britain had to ‘recognise responsibilities we have around defensive support’

This morning, Yvette Cooper has been out on the airwaves seeking to clarify the extent of Britain’s involvement. The Foreign Secretary says that Britain had to ‘recognise responsibilities we have around defensive support’, namely the ‘defence of our partners in the Gulf and defence of countries where we have so many British citizens and interests.’ Cooper argues that ‘it doesn’t mean political and economic and infrastructure targets, but there is a significant issue about ballistic missiles and launchers that were effectively pointed at the Gulf, pointed at our partner countries, and countries where we have so many British citizens.’

Ministers will inevitably face further questions in parliament later today about what vetting will be done to check the individual targeting and strike packages of every US aircraft leaving a British base. Keir Starmer is due to face Labour MPs tonight; memories of Iraq will doubtless dominate. The days ahead are likely to be extremely difficult for the likes of Cooper and Lord Hermer, the Attorney General, whose advice will be pored over by critics and Labour MPs alike. His allies say that he is confident on the policy, politics and legal standing of his actions – even while the more hawkish elements of government fear his caution has left the PM looking weak.

Starmer’s supporters can argue that, unlike Donald Trump, his obvious reluctance to get involved means he has at least tried to build a public consensus on Iran, by waiting until Tehran attacked allies to sanction the use of bases. One defender of the PM argues that the past 48 hours have shown Starmer’s seriousness, contrasting his stance with the Greens’ pacifism and the willingness of Reform and the Tories to ‘jump into a fully fledged conflict without any sense of plan.’

The Prime Minister has deliberately eschewed the Thatcher approach of offering bases, regardless of consequences. But now that the United States has resolved to take out the Iranian leadership, he faces being sucked in still further, despite any protestations he might make. In taking a cautious approach, he risks alienating an American president he has spent much time trying to please. For Starmer, the Iran crisis – with its potential for regional conflict, oil price spikes and a migration surge – is fraught with danger and few opportunities.

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