In the end, it was not even that close. The Green party has stormed to victory in Gorton and Denton, winning their first ever parliamentary by-election by more than 4,000 votes. Hannah Spencer, the new MP, pulled off an impressive result, winning 41 per cent of the vote compared to Reform’s Matt Goodwin on 29 per cent and Labour’s Angeliki Stogia in third on 26 per cent. In her victory speech, Spencer – a plumber – attributed her victory to ordinary people being ‘bled dry’ and jokingly apologised to customers who had booked in her services.
If Hannah Spencer is the clear winner, then Keir Starmer is the obvious loser
If Hannah Spencer is the clear winner, then Keir Starmer is the obvious loser. Labour’s vote has halved since the election, down here from the 50 per cent which Andrew Gwynne won in July 2024. This result is a microcosm of a trend we can expect to see play out across the country come May, as chunks of the Labour vote disappear to rivals on both left and right. Organisers here made much of the fact that they were ‘Manchester Labour’, placing their hopes in Andy Burnham’s achievements as Mayor and trying to paint themselves as a distinct and popular brand. This result suggests that voters make no such distinction at the ballot box: something that bodes ill for Welsh Labour.
Already, a blame game is underway, with some pinning defeat on Shabana Mahmood's hard-line immigration reforms. In the short-term, the fall-out from this result is likely to obscure some of the relatively good economic news which Rachel Reeves has been hoping to showcase at next week's Spring Statement: a record budget surplus, retail sales at a 20-month high and improved private sector activity. Lucy Powell, the party's deputy leader, tried to put a brave face on this result, suggesting that 'there is a big majority in this constituency that hasn’t voted for Reform' and that 'on the day the Greens have managed to win that argument that they were best placed to do that.' Yet this represents an acknowledgement that Labour is no longer automatically the only choice to 'Stop Reform', raising questions about any cordon sanitaire effort to keep Nigel Farage out of power in 2029.
Tonight will boost the profile of the Greens: something which Reform believe plays to their advantage
For Reform, tonight is a mixed result. The immediate sense is one of disappointment. Campaigners hoped to poll between 12,000 to 14,000 votes: taking less than 11,000 will likely be viewed as an underwhelming haul. There will be some questions too about the selection of high-profile candidate Matt Goodwin, given the endless Labour and Green attacks on his past comments. But longer-term, tonight will boost the profile of the Greens: something which Reform believe plays to their advantage. 'It proper muddies the water on tactical voting' said one source. Zia Yusuf has previously invited Zack Polanski to a debate; expect to see similar such efforts to increase the Greens' salience in the months ahead.
Tonight represents another nail in the coffin of the legacy parties too. Labour's result here is only the second time they have ever finished third in a by-election in a seat which they had previously held, excluding the disqualified Rochdale candidate of 2024. The Tories won a paltry 1.9 per cent: the first time they have lost their deposit at an English by-election since 1983. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile grabbed just 1.8 per cent. In decades gone by, it was they who sought to snatch the anti-establishment vote and make themselves the vehicle for change. All told, the three main parties who have served in government for the past 100 years took less than 30 per cent. 'The old loyalties are now gone', reflects one former Tory aide.
It is not just the result which serves as a portent for the future. The tactics used in this by-election have been divisive, cynical and, at times, sectarian. Each of the three main parties here have cried foul at different points. The Greens were criticised for recording videos in Urdu; they point to Labour's attack van on polling day suggesting they wanted to sell crack cocaine to schools. As the party system becomes more fractured and race becomes a greater fault line, it is likely that such division will become much more embedded in British politics.
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