We are at the phony war/silly season stage of the Andy Burnham ascendancy and there’s a lot of nonsense flying around. A lot of decisions have not yet been made – and some of them remain highly problematic – but, in descending order of confidence, this is what I’m hearing:
1) Is Mahmood edging ahead of Miliband to be chancellor?
Burnham makes his big speech on the economy and devolution in – where else? – Manchester on Monday, but the steer from senior members of Team Andy is that we should not expect the battle to be chancellor, which comes down to Ed Miliband against Shabana Mahmood, to be resolved next week. ‘It won’t be for a while,’ one says. Unite and the GMB are opposed to Miliband, while Unison is backing him, but the interesting thing is that even quite left-wing members of Burnham’s inner circle don’t seem sold on the Energy Secretary. ‘The fact that Louise Haigh is regarded as a more market-friendly pick than Ed is really quite frightening,’ one says. ‘Shabana just absolutely proved herself head and shoulders above the rest of the cabinet, getting a grip of the Home Office.’ My understanding is that, while Mahmood doesn’t want to be seen to campaign for the job, she would absolutely take the post if it was offered.
2) Burnham is not sold on backing the Defence Investment Plan
Keir Starmer will announce the DIP before he goes, but No. 10 is divided on whether he will do so next week or on the eve of the Nato summit, which begins on 7 July. Either way, Burnham is not wedded to the outcome, despite demands from Starmer’s allies that he ‘immediately’ support whatever derisory sum the Treasury has found for the MoD. Burnham’s team want to see the detail and where the money will be spent before they endorse anything. ‘People only ever talk about it in big numbers. We don’t have a clue what they mean,’ a key figure complains. ‘What are we buying? What level of security is that delivering? There is very little assurance that they’re going to spend it well, given that the MoD piss their money at the wall.’ There are also amusing reports of Starmer, who did not show himself to be a details man for much of his premiership, agonising over the minutiae of the DIP.
3) Lucy Powell is not as central to Project Burnham as many have claimed
Don’t put your house on Powell becoming deputy prime minister, an appointment largely regarded as inked in. While she’s a longstanding ally of Burnham from Manchester, and allied herself to him when she was fired from the cabinet by Starmer, insiders point out that Burnham did not want her running his by-election campaign and handed power to Haigh and Anneliese Midgley. While it is most likely that a woman gets the title, don’t rule out Burnham giving the job to Miliband if he decides not to make him chancellor.
4) No. 10’s culture will change
This is a big deal for a lot of Labour MPs. The female-heavy team behind Burnham have made a point of telling James Purnell, the incoming chief of staff, that they will not tolerate the briefing wars which consumed Team Starmer at the end of 2024 and into 2025. I understand that Haigh, the key figure in Burnham’s camp, has already had discussions on this with Purnell.
5) Charlie Falconer for Attorney General?
This is more of an idea that makes sense than a done deal, but Tony Blair’s Lord Chancellor was a resolute member of Burnham’s inner circle during the 2015 leadership contest and remains an active peer. Richard Hermer will be first out of the door with Starmer and, if Burnham is putting together a government of all the talents, Charlie makes sense as a grey beard for a year or two. Not everyone will like a return, however, for one of the most resolute advocates of assisted dying.
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