Biden’s vibe shift
Ahead of last night’s State of the Union, the Biden White House had promised a reset. What he delivered certainly fell short of the full system reboot a president with such dire approval ratings needs. But there was a change in tone. A vibe shift, if you will. Out with the FDR tribute act, in with a torpid moderation. Not an enthusiastic tack to the center but a partial acknowledgment of political reality.
The president may not have offered an especially energizing reboot to his presidency in his speech, but it nonetheless felt like a page was turned last night. That was most immediately obvious when it came to the pandemic. Democrats had contrived to make March 1 the day the pandemic ended: rules lifted on the Hill, in the White House and across Washington. Biden, who a day earlier was ambling alone across a deserted Southern Lawn in a KN-95, pressed the flesh, mask-free in a way hasn’t done in public for quite some time. As a result, the country got a (long overdue) dose of normalcy. The pandemic was given short shrift in the president’s speech, however. No odes to saintly experts, just a nod to a tough few years and a crisis in the rear view mirror; confirmation, not that it were needed, that Covid has gone from a winning issue to a losing one for Biden’s party.
On foreign policy, last night made clear the new reality in which Biden, and other world leaders, are now operating. The foreign policy section of Biden’s address, which seemed to have been rather crudely affixed to the front of the speech he had planned to give, put what followed in perspective. With the House chamber full of Ukrainian flags, many lawmakers dressed in blue and yellow, and with the Ukrainian ambassador sitting next to the first lady, Biden accused Vladimir Putin, who he called a “dictator,” of “badly miscalculating.” He reiterated his promise to make the Russian leader pay as well as his pledge that American troops would not get involved in the conflict.
But the president offered little beyond short-term reaction to the present crisis. No discussion of how the invasion of Ukraine might necessitate more defense spending, or a change in energy policy. Perhaps it is too soon to do so, but at some stage Biden will have to move from denunciations to strategy
On domestic policy, a page was turned too: rather than emphasizing his administration’s plans to remake America as we know it, something he threatened many times in his first twelve months, Biden presented a moderate-sounding account of his legislative agenda. Climate change didn’t get a mention, whereas viewers were treated to a long section on the merits of “Buy American” economic nationalism as well as calls for bipartisan action in a range of reasonably uncontroversial areas.
Democratic strategists who have pleaded with the Biden administration to focus on a big, stolid and patriotic-sounding economic policies will have been pleased with what they heard on domestic policy last night, and a moderate Democrat in a tight race in November would likely have felt relief after the speech. It was light on sops to the left. But it still fell short of a clean slate. The words “Build Back Better” may not have been mentioned, but a long list of measures included in the package that hit the rocks were trotted out again, to applause from one side of the house. By ordinary standards, this was an ambitious agenda (and one that he will struggle to get through a deadlocked Senate). But the shift in tone from last year’s LBJ/FDR fantasies was nonetheless clear.
Biden said the answer to rising crime was to “fund the police” not “defund the police”. Is that a reset? Not according to the official Democratic Party line, which wants you to forget the mainstream’s flirtation with the “Defund” movement. Inclusion of the line in the State of the Union does however suggest that voters aren’t fools — and acknowledges the volumes of damage done.
From Ukraine to inflation and energy policy to crime, Team Biden are dragging themselves, slowly, a little closer to where the American people are. They are kinda, sorta admitting that the things they denied were problems a year ago do in fact matter to people — and that with an election coming up, it might be smart to acknowledge the existence of those problems. But there’s still a sense that, at home and abroad, Biden is hopelessly behind the curve. That’s bad news for Democrats in November, and, more importantly, bad news for the country. A vibe shift? Sure. But not the reset he needed.
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The SOTU subplots
Away from the substance of Biden’s speech, the State of the Union was heavy on amusing subplots. Coming soon to a meme near you: Chuck Schumer’s mistimed standing ovation and Justice Breyer’s endearing “aw, shucks” response to the president’s tribute. Instant classics.
Then there was Biden’s delivery. His speech contained an unusual number of slips. The worst of them was Biden’s insistence that “Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks, but he’ll never gain the hears and souls of the Iranian people.” Then there was the odd sign-off to the whole speech: “Go get him!” Or maybe “Go get ’em!” said the president with a clenched fist to conclude his hour-and-a-bit speech. Who exactly is getting who? A strange ad-lib to end on.
Meanwhile in Texas…
While Washington was listening to Biden, Texas was counting primary-race ballots. Both incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat poster boy Beto O’Rourke easily brushed aside primary competitors and will square off in November’s gubernatorial race.
In Texas’s 28th Congressional District, which sits south of San Antonio and includes many of the border towns that swung sharply to the GOP in 2020, incumbent Henry Cuellar and Squad-endorsed Jessica Cisneros find themselves in a near dead heat, their tallies separated by just a few hundred votes. With neither candidate securing 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will decide whether it is a moderate whose home was recently raided by the FBI or an unapologetic progressive who must defend this top Republican target in November.
The other high-profile race in the state featuring an incumbent involved in an FBI investigation is for attorney general. Here too, a run off will decide the contest between the Trump-endorsed sitting AG Ken Paxton and the (last?) great hope of the Bush dynasty, George P. Bush.
What you should be reading today
Matt Purple: Ukraine couldn’t save Biden’s State of the Union
Teresa Mull: Ash Wednesday and the gift of guilt
Will Collins: Even Hungary has soured on Vladimir Putin
Maura Reynolds, Politico magazine: Fiona Hill on Putin and nukes
James R. Copland, City Journal: Assessing Biden’s nominee
Alexander Bolton, the Hill: Manchin pours water on Biden’s attempt to revive BBB
Poll watch
President Biden Job Approval
Approve: 40.6 percent
Disapprove: 54.4 percent
Net approval: -13.8 (RCP Average)
Ohio Senate Republican primary
Mike Gibbons: 22 percent
Josh Mandel: 15 percent
J.D. Vance: 8 percent
Jane Timken: 6 percent
Matt Dolan: 6 percent (Emerson/the Hill)
