Plenty of narratives can be pulled out of last Thursday’s elections. Labour’s shattered hold over its Northern and Welsh heartlands; the imperviousness of Scottish voters to the inadequacies of SNP rule; the onward march of Reform; the continuing irrelevance of the Lib Dems; the foaming of the River Tiber heralded by sectarian success. But one that cannot – if you still want to be able to look yourself in the eye in the morning mirror – is that they were good for the Conservatives.
Trying to turn these results into a victory only leaves Badenoch looking like Comical Kemi
Kemi Badenoch was out in front of the cameras early, surrounded by beaming activists, heralding her party’s success in taking back Westminster from Labour. Seizing back Buckingham Palace’s council was the jewel in the crown of several good results: Wandsworth, though only reduced to no overall control, seems set for a Conservative administration, while the party won or held on areas like Harlow, Harrow, Bexley and Broxtowe. Overall losses were down on last year; vote share estimates were up. But trying to spin these results into a victory only left Badenoch looking like Comical Kemi. ‘There are no Reform infidels in Bexley. Never!’
Good news! The party held or won back a few councils. But it was still down 563 councillors. Good news! The party’s loss rate was 44 per cent, rather than last year’s 68 per cent. But the vote share was still down 11 points in 2022, when these councils were last contested amid Partygate, and in Scotland and Wales, the party plummeted from 2nd to 5th and 2nd to 4th respectively. This election was the one where the Tories, after quite the innings, were finally ended as a national force. So long expected, it is almost unremarkable.
Yet it bears spelling out how badly the party lost. Essex – home to the seats of six members of the Shadow Cabinet, including Badenoch. Suffolk, Norfolk, Sussex, Lincolnshire and other areas where clichés about Tory votes once being weighed not counted abounded. Claiming that these results are unimportant since councils are being restructured, as Badenoch has, is disingenuous; to claim Reform are not the leading party of the Right, as James Cleverly did yesterday, is delusional. Talk abounds of Cleverly running for the London mayoralty, with his seat going teal. Hasn’t London suffered enough?
The Conservatives are now a party for a shrinking coalition of very select groups, crowded around the capital and south-east: the very old and very wealthy; North London Jews; Hindu nationalists; Soho gay bars; the Times comment section. Election wins these will not bring. But they seem important for those clustered around SW1, and with a vested interest in closing their eyes, sticking their fingers in their ears and ordering another round at the Carlton.
This is not meant as an attack on any of those aforementioned groups. Personally, I’ve a very great fondness for Britain’s Jews, Soho pubs and Times editorials. Narendra Modi, I must admit, I can take or leave. But it is a call for my fellow Tories – yes, I’ve still not gone to Reform, shock horror – to wake up and smell the losses, before they get ahead of themselves.
The best the Conservatives can hope for out of the next election – unless Nigel Farage is hit by a bus – is to retain enough MPs to prevent Reform from winning an out-right majority and forcing a coalition or pact. The means clinging, limpet-like, to as many seats as possible, while advancing in areas that Reform cannot. The primary enemy is now not Farage, but Ed Davey. The Red Wall is gone; the Blue Wall is splitting; the hour is late and dark. I covet my neighbour’s Slug and Lettuce.
For the sake of posterity, I will point out that some of us predicted all of this a year ago. I did my best to shake my party awake and to prevent exactly this outcome. For that, I was ostracised and pilloried by a few; ignored by many more. I had said the Empress had no clothes, watching the party’s ratings tumble further downwards. But then any reckoning with reality was forestalled by a remarkable media phenomenon: the Badenoch Bounceback.
I wrote about this around Christmas. Badenoch’s personal ratings have improved. A couple of good speeches, one at party conference, the other at the Budget; a greater assuredness at PMQs; victories for the Tories in the Commons; a fall in Reform’s poll numbers from their summer heights; a newfound ability for Badenoch to do interviews without mentioning her ethnic enemies; the emergence of Mel Stride from prolonged hibernation…
Since much of this momentum stemmed from Badenoch taking my advice – promoting Neil O’Brien and Nick Timothy to the Shadow Cabinet, not waiting until 2027 to launch any policies, taking Reform seriously rather than babble about the SDP, bothering to actually prepare for her one major parliamentary showing of the week, not dismissing the economy as irrelevant, and so on – I was happy to claim credit for it. But it also had to be tempered with a sprinkling of reality. The Tories are still hated; Reform are still far ahead.
If the party had wanted to see off the Farage threat, it would have elected Robert Jenrick. But now he – and his analysis of a broken Britain that requires radical change – is gone. It has taken Badenoch the best part of a year and a half to bring herself to the level of activity that a Jenrick leadership would have had from day one. Better late than never. But she is still the leader who took the Conservative Party from first to third, and towards national irrelevance.
But a year ago, I called for Badenoch to be replaced. I will not do so now. Instead, I’ll cheer her on. I’ve concluded that she is the perfect leader for the party going forward. That’s no slight on Timothy, Clare Coutinho, Katie Lam or other worthy replacements in the parliamentary party. They are all far too honest about Britain’s plight to shoulder the task that Badenoch has set herself: to appeal to those parts of the country that do not believe Britain is broken. Badenoch lives in a bubble; she appeals to others who do so.
Hamstrung by her own arrogance, surrounded by sycophants and yesterday’s men, Badenoch speaks to those very pleased with themselves, thank you very much. They might be a bit worried about the impact of Starmer/Rayner/Burnham/Polanski on the City/Kashmir/pensions/house prices (delete as applicable). But they’re the sort of people happy enough with 14 wasted years to think the Tories still deserve a hearing, or consider Farage too déclassé to go over to Reform. They don’t represent much of Britain, as Thursday showed. But enough for her to go on, amid the cheers of the party faithful.
Much has changed since I first pontificated about Badenoch’s leadership. But the final, indispensable, healing change had never happened in me, until now. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! It is all right, everything is all right, the struggle is finished. I have won the victory over myself. I have learnt to love Big Badenoch.
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