Conservative spokespersons put a brave face on the outcome of the English local elections on Thursday. While acknowledging the party had lost over 500 seats – two in five of those it was defending – they argued the results represented the first shoots of recovery from the severe defeat the party suffered in the 2024 election.
Central to the party’s claim was that in the BBC’s projected national share – an estimate of what would have happened if all of Britain had voted in elections on May 7 – the party’s tally of 17 per cent was nine points behind that of Reform – down from 30 points last year. In addition, the party pointed to its success in regaining control of the iconic borough of Westminster – and in holding its own in terms of seats across the capital. But how valid is this argument?
The better Reform did, the more the Tory vote fell
One of the difficulties with comparing the results of this year’s local elections with last year’s is that they largely took place in very different parts of England. This year’s elections occurred primarily in urban England; last year’s contests were mostly in the rural shires. Apart from the fact that trends in voting preference since the election may not be the same in the two parts of England, it means there are few places where a direct comparison can be made between how well the party did last year and its performance this year.
There are some though. Among a sample of councils where the BBC collected the detailed voting statistics as they were declared on Thursday night and Friday are eleven places where a county council election took place last year. On average, the overall Conservative share of the vote in these districts was two points lower this year than last year. Little sign here of sustained Tory spring shoots then.
Still, this is a very limited sample. So, we might also opt to compare how the Tories performed in the half dozen county council elections that took place this year (after being postponed last year) with how the party fared in the counties last year. These at least might be thought to be similar kinds of places. The BBC’s sample includes three of the counties that had elections on Thursday – Essex, Hampshire, and West Sussex. On average Tory support was down since 2021 by 24 points. That is a slightly bigger drop than the 22 point fall in the county elections last year.
Meanwhile, the outcome in Westminster owed more to Labour misfortune than Tory progress. Labour’s vote fell across the borough by 17 points. But this was not accompanied by an increase in Conservative support. Rather, it fell by five points. The party won simply because its vote fell by less than that of its principal opponents locally – with the insurgent Greens being unable to claim any seats. All that can be claimed is that the fall in the party’s support in Westminster – and indeed across London as a whole (also 5 points) – was lower than the average fall of 13 points outside the capital.
But to what extent did the party demonstrate it was beginning to meet the challenge posed by Reform? This too is far from clear. As in last year’s local elections, Reform’s best performances occurred mostly in places that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016. The party won 39 per cent where more than 60 per cent backed Brexit, compared with just 10 per cent where less than 40 per cent voted to leave the EU.
Meanwhile, the better Reform did, the more the Tory vote fell. If Reform won 30 per cent or more locally, the Conservative tally was down on average by 17 points – compared with just 4 points where Reform won less than 10 per cent. In contrast, the strength of Reform’s performance made little difference to how heavily Labour’s vote fell.
All of which means Tory support fell more heavily in places that backed Brexit in 2016 – with striking consequences. On average, the Conservatives share of the vote on Thursday was no higher (16 per cent) in wards that voted most heavily for Brexit than in those that were most enthusiastic about remaining (17 per cent). With the polls now showing Tory support to be no higher among Leavers than Remainers, it appears that the rise of Reform has resulted in pro-Brexit Britain deserting the party that delivered the policy for which they had voted in 2016. This seems more like autumn leaves than the first green shoots of spring.
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