The battle for control of the White House is, of course, the big US politics story of the year. But what about the building at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue — the Capitol, which houses Congress? All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election, as well as 33 of the 100 Senate seats.
Currently, the Democrats control the Senate, with 51 Senators and two independents who caucus with them. But it will be tough for them to retain control, as they are defending 23 seats this time to the GOP’s 10 — and most of the seats up this time were last up for election in 2006, which was a very strong year for the Democrats. To make matters worse, six Democrats are retiring this time (as well as independent Joe Lieberman), many of them in tricky states for the party. The Republicans need to gain a net of four seats to have a majority — if they gain just three the Senate will be tied and control will be determined by the result of the Presidential election, as the Vice President serves as President of the Senate and can cast the decisive vote in the event of a tie.Here are the ten races that will determine who controls the Senate, in order of the likelihood that the seat will change parties in November:
1. Maine (currently Republican)
The retirement of three-term Senator Olympia Snowe makes this a very tough defence for the GOP — but the Democrats don’t look likely to be the (direct) beneficiaries. Instead the strong favourite is independent candidate Angus King, who served as Governor of Maine from 1995 to 2003. The latest polls give him a big lead of 27-28 points. The big question is how King would vote in the Senate once elected — so far he’s refused to say whether he’d caucus with either party, although he is on the centre-left and has endorsed Democratic candidates in the past.
2. Nebraska (Democrat)
With incumbent Bill Nelson retiring in this dark red state, Republican Deb Fischer is likely to take this seat from the Democrats. She leads Bob Kerrey by ten points according to PPP and by 18 according to Rasmussen.
3. North Dakota (D)
Democrat Kent Conrad is retiring after 26 years in the Senate. Republican nominee Rick Berg has already won a statewide election — as North Dakota’s single congressman in 2010 — and should be the strong favourite. But his opponent Heidi Heitkamp has proved a stronger candidate than expected, giving the Democrats hope of holding onto the seat. The polling is mixed — while Rasmussen shows a nine-point lead for Berg, Mason Dixon found Heitkamp ahead by one.
4. Wisconsin (D)
Another Democrat retiring, this time four-term Senator Herb Kohl. Tammy Baldwin — a Congresswoman since 1999 — will carry the flag for the Democrats. The Republican candidate will be decided by a primary on 14 August — at the moment it’s a close fight between Tommy Thompson (who served as Governor of the state for 14 years) and businessman Eric Hovde (who’s never run for office before). The Democrats will probably be hoping Tea Party-backed Hovde wins the nomination — Baldwin looks the slight favourite against him, but the slight underdog against Thompson.
5. Missouri (D)
Claire McCaskill, who narrowly took the seat from the Republicans in 2006, faces a tough re-election battle. There’s another tight Republican primary between Sarah Steelman, John Brunner and Todd Akin, which will be decided on 7 August. Rasmussen gives each of the Republicans an eight to 12-point lead, but PPP has them all roughly tying McCaskill.
6. Montana (D)
Jon Tester, who like McCaskill narrowly beat the Republican incumbent in 2006, is in another tight race against Denny Rehberg, who has been the state’s sole Congressman since 2001. Rasmussen shows Rehberg leading by two points.
7. Massachusetts (R)
In 2009, following the death of Ted Kennedy, Scott Brown became the first Republican to win a Senate seat in dark blue Massachusetts since 1972. He faces Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren, and the polls suggest a dead heat.
8. Virginia (D)
Two former Governors are battling for the seat being vacated by Jim Webb — Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen (who was also a Senator before being unseated by Webb in 2006). The polls again point to a tossup at the moment.
9. Indiana (R)
Incumbent Richard Lugar, who has served in the Senate for 35 years, was defeated in the Republican primary by Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock, giving the Democrats a chance to pick up the seat in November. The two polls so far both have Mourdock exactly tied with the Democratic nominee, Congressman Joe Donnelly.
10. Nevada (R)
Republican Dean Heller was appointed to replace John Ensign after he resigned last year. He faces Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley. PPP has Heller up by one point, Marist has him up by two and Rasmussen has him up by 11.
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