Weekend tips for Aintree

Henrietta Knight, best known for her astute handling of triple Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Best Mate, returned to the training ranks two years ago after a 12-year absence. Since then, she has been quietly but steadily clocking up more winners and she has started the new jumps season well, too.

Over the past fortnight, three of Knight’s eight runners have won, giving her an impressive strike rate of 38 per cent. Tomorrow she has just the one runner but I am hoping she can add another winner to her total in the shape of SOUTHOFTHEBORDER who runs at Aintree in the Play Lucky Stable With William Hill Handicap Chase (3.35 p.m.).

Southoftheborder, an eight-year-old gelding, has proved to be a consistent performer over the past four seasons, winning four of his 16 starts and being placed in seven more. There was plenty to like about his seasonal reappearance at Ffos Las last month when he was second of eight runners behind Torneo.

There are plenty of dangers in the race

That form looks strong after the third horse, Crebilly, won a handicap chase at Wetherby a week ago, while Riskintheground, who was sixth at Ffos Las, was third in the Grade 2 bet365 Charlie Hall Chase, also at Wetherby last weekend.

Brendan Powell, Southoftheborder’s regular jockey, is out injured, so Robbie Dunne, who rides staying chasers particularly well, will be in the saddle tomorrow when 12 runners are due to line up for the contest over two and a half miles. Back Southoftheborder 1 point each way at 11-1 with bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betfred, Sky Bet or Paddy Power, all paying four places.

Another yard with their horses in good form is that of David Killahena and Graeme McPherson, who train jointly in Gloucestershire. Over the past fortnight, they have had four winners from just ten runners for an admirable strike rate of 40 per cent.

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Today at Aintree they run one of their stable stalwarts, MARBLE SANDS, in the BetMGM Handicap Chase (3.35 p.m.). I like this horse and put him up for the 2025 Topham Chase at the track. However, he failed to take to the Grand National fences and trailed in 12th of the 30 runners that day. He again disappointed over the same brush fences in April when he fell at the 18th fence in the Randox Grand National.

Today, and now a ten-year-old gelding, he runs over the easier fences of the Mildmay course over three miles and one furlong in the BetMGM Handicap Chase (3.35 p.m.). On the back of a prep run on the flat at Pontefract last month, he should be well suited by today’s conditions and he has Kielan Woods back in the saddle, who won on him at Cheltenham a year ago.

There are plenty of dangers in the race, including Leave of Absence who goes well fresh, but back Marble Sands 1 point each way at 12-1 with Betfair, Sky Bet or Paddy Power, all paying four places.

Tipsters like me are meant to give their readers advice on horses to bet on not vice-versa. However, this weekly blog is read by a large number of astute punters and I enjoy their feedback in the comments section.

So a big thank you to ‘Hugo’ for pointing out the chances of TORNEO in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase a week tomorrow (14 November). As observed earlier in this blog, the form of his win at Ffos Las win last month looks solid. Hugo stated in the comment section:

The Jamie Snowden-trained 6-year-old gelding ran well at last year’s November meeting and has improved since stepping up in trip. He could be an interesting unexposed dark horse for the Paddy Power.

In fact, having looked into the horse’s chances, I now know that the Paddy Power has been Torneo’s long-term aim for some time. Furthermore, Snowden entered him in the Ffos Las race in the specific hope that he would win and get a high enough revised handicap mark to enable the horse to run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Even now, the horse is not guaranteed a run in eight days’ time but I suspect he will creep into the field. If so, he will not mind any ground conditions between ‘soft’ and ‘good’ which is ideal for an ante-post bet, particularly as the weather forecasts for next week are varied.

Back Torneo 1 point each way at 25-1 with bet365 as this bookmaker will refund stakes if he fails to make the ‘cut’ for the race, provided he is declared by connections at the 48-hour stage. I agree with Hugo that odds of 25-1 – or even the 20-1 offered by almost all other bookies – are generous.

In a week’s time, I will be concentrating on Cheltenham’s three-day November meeting that starts on Friday, 13 November.

Pending:

1 point each way Marble Sands at 12-1 for the BetMGM Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.

1 point each way Southoftheborder at 11-1 for the Play Lucky Stable With William Hill Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.

1 point each way Zurich at 16-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.

1 point each way Torneo at 25-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.

1 point each way Helnwein at 16-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.

1 point each way Mister Ursus at 20-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.

2 points win Jordans at 16-1 for the Grand National 2027.

Last weekend: no settled bets.

2026-7 jumps season running total: + 0.32 points.

2026 flat season: + 21.994 points on all tips.