Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has been in St Petersburg today, meeting with Vladimir Putin to discuss American-led proposals for ending the Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine. Central to the plan put forward by Witkoff is reportedly a suggestion for a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky at some undisclosed point in the future to negotiate terms for ending the war.
The beginning of the three-hour meeting between Putin and Witkoff was open to the press. Witkoff thanked the Russian president for agreeing to supply America with 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel and expressed his hope that Putin would consider agreeing to the proposed trilateral meeting with Zelensky and Trump. The Russian president, in return, announced the release of US citizen Stephen Hubbard, captured and imprisoned by Russia while fighting for Ukraine in 2024.
Witkoff arrived in Russia fresh from a summit yesterday held in Norway that included Zelensky, Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish president Alexander Stubb, as well as representatives from other countries allied to Ukraine, including Britain. Jared Kushner, Witkoff’s co-envoy and Trump’s son-in-law, dialled in remotely from the States, reportedly on account of a bout of flu.
Trump is desperate for a win with Russia
The purpose of yesterday’s meeting in Oslo was in part to discuss proposals with Zelensky on ending the war in Ukraine. Kushner is said to have once again demanded that Ukraine halt strikes on Russian oil refineries, which the Ukrainian premier said he would be prepared to do if Putin reciprocated.
Stubb’s leadership in the discussions was interesting for several reasons. Firstly, the Finnish premier has established a reputation among European leaders as someone who is reasonably capable of holding Trump’s attention and has his respect. After the US president re-entered the White House last year, Stubb’s efforts at golf-course diplomacy, bonding with Trump on the greens, were widely noted.
The second reason is that Finland shares an 830 mile-long border with Russia and a long history of aggression and hostility. As a member of the EU and Nato, Finland is well placed to hawkishly represent European security interests, as well as express support for Ukraine, in conversations about the country’s future. Until recently, Europe has been excluded from many of these discussions, partly by design from the US and Russia, and partly due to its policy of non-engagement with Putin.
All this activity in Oslo and St Peterburg takes place against the backdrop of unease and betrayal felt at Trump’s active attempts to flatter Putin and repeated attacks on Zelensky ahead of the US midterm elections. Just yesterday, the US President claimed that ‘we’ve gotten absolutely nothing back [from Ukraine] except grief, death, tremendous monetary loss.’ ‘Russia,’ he added glibly, ‘frankly has been fine on Ukraine. They have not been doing that much.’ The Russian response was to continue attacking Ukraine with drones yesterday, killing ten. Ukraine is suffering from a critical lack of Patriot missile interceptors, in large part caused by deficits resulting from Trump’s war with Iran, which are necessary for shooting down Russian missiles and drones.
The White House is said to hope that striking its diesel deal with and cancelling the implementation of harsh sanctions on Russia will make Putin more agreeable in negotiations over Ukraine. But there has been nothing to suggest yet that the Russian president is genuinely ready to make a deal or concede on his war aims – at least not before the end of winter. It is also not the first time a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky has been proposed; earlier this year the Russian president signalled he would only be willing to do so if his Ukrainian counterpart travelled to Moscow.
As such, the proposed trilateral between Zelensky, Trump and Putin looks like a test set by Ukraine to prove to Washington that the Russian president is still unwilling to seriously negotiate. A complication exists, however, in that Putin has floated the possibility of meeting Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss Ukraine on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen in mid-November. There is the possibility that any talks with Ukraine are sidelined as a result.
Facing the prospect of brutal midterm results for the Republicans in two weeks’ time, Trump is desperate for a win with Russia. Putin can sense this and appears to be using this to play for time ahead of a winter in which he hopes to make substantial progress on subjugating Ukraine. Not for the first time, it is Zelensky who is being forced to jump through hoops and show willing in the hope that doing so will save his country from a stitch-up by an enemy and supposed ally. It will become clear in the coming days and weeks whether Putin will grant Trump his wish, and the price Ukraine may be forced to pay.
Comments