So, who’s gonna be the next to go? The rate of Reform switchers has stepped out in recent days with both Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell taking the plunge. But while elements of the Conservative parliamentary party seems to enjoy staging a performance of And Then There Were None, Kemi Badenoch is happier acting as the Poirot-esque sleuth, identifying defectors and kicking them out before they can quit on their own terms.
It all makes for rather good sport and the public seem to like it too. For a new Opinium poll for The Spectator found that six in ten voters (59 per cent) think Badenoch was right to sack Jenrick, with only one in ten (11 per cent) arguing that she was wrong to do so. This is even more true among 2024 Conservative voters (79 per cent right to do) and even 61 per cent of 2024 Reformers too. Some rare Tory-Reform cross-party harmony there…
After the events of the past week, the public feel more somewhat positively towards Kemi Badenoch (32 per cent more positive vs 13 per cent more negative) and, to a lesser extent, the Conservative Party (24 per cent more positive vs 16 per cent more negative). On the other side, they now feel more negatively towards Robert Jenrick (16 per cent more positive vs 29 per cent more negative). Penny for Bobby J’s thoughts eh?
The poll of 2,047 adults was conducted between 15 and 19 January and found that Badenoch’s approval rating is up to its highest level since November 2024. She now has net positive scores on being ‘decisive’ and ‘sticking to her principles rather than just saying what people want to hear’, with a rise of 18 points since August on being a ‘strong leader.’
But before the overworked and under-appreciated team in LOTO break out the champagne, it is worth noting that half the public think the Conservative Party is disunited, with the the Tories’ net score for unity dropping from net-16 in December 2025 to -32 now. James Crouch of Opinium told Mr S that:
Kemi Badenoch has turned something that could have derailed her leadership of the Conservative Party into a personal PR victory. But it has also turned the slow and steady defections to Reform from something only SW1 really noticed into a very public fault line on the right of British politics.”
Let’s see how that changes in the run up to Nigel Farage’s May 7 ‘transfer day deadline’….
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