The Sopranos is not an obvious starting point when discussing the Liberal Democrats. But a TV programme about mafia, murder and manicotti offers a useful analogy for comparing Ed Davey’s strategy to that of Reform UK. David Chase, the Sopranos creator, recalls once meeting a TV exec who wanted LOP – ‘Least Offensive Programming’, the idea that the more palatable and likeable a character, the more they would be popular with audiences. It is a theory which Davey seems to have taken to heart, donning cricket whites and wetsuits in a bid to appeal to the perceived sensibilities of Middle England.
His party’s policy offering is carefully calibrated not to offend the tastes of such voters. Today’s offering was a classic of the genre. Standing proudly in front of a sign warning of ‘an A&E crisis’, Sir Ed unveiled his big, bold strategy: scrapping the UK-US pharmaceutical deal to put £1.5 billion into social care. Such a sum sounds big – until one remembers that it is less than 1 per cent of the annual NHS budget. Pressed as to why he was not being more ‘radical’, Davey spoke of the need to be ‘credible’. Some differentiation then from Labour and the Conservatives, yet not enough to spook wealthy southerners wary of their taxes going up. Incrementalist, yes; revolutionary, no – LOP at its finest.
Incrementalist, yes; revolutionary, no
This morning’s press conference was intended to offer a contrast to those hosted by Reform. Davey’s aides believe that he offers the perfect foil to Nigel Farage; the former is modest and sensible, the latter – in their view – bombastic and absurd. Where Reform like to go off piste, the Lib Dems prefer to be low-key and structured, with Davey’s softly spoken answers the opposite of Farage’s jousting with journalists. Pyrotechnics were eschewed, with the only self-indulgent touch being Davey’s walk-on music: the Pointer Sisters’ Jump, famously enjoyed by Hugh Grant in Love Actually.
The sober style fits with the party’s wider strategy. The Lib Dems will spend the next five months depicting Farage’s party as a bunch of Trump-loving cowboys with an unhealthy obsession for guns – something which party polling shows is Davey’s most effective attack line to date. His outfit may lack the flash and flair of Reform but that does not mean he cannot secure the headlines he wants. ‘Lib Dems set out plans to end 12-hour waits,’ reads the BBC write up. ‘You have to stand up to him’: Ed Davey on how to deal with Donald Trump,’ says Sky.
The danger for Davey is that the audience numbers for such a product will continue to shrink as new and exciting offers – like the Greens – come on our screens. As Luke Tryl of More in Common told us on today’s Coffee House Shots: ‘I can’t remember the last time someone brought up the Lib Dems in a focus group.’ Davey’s team are gambling that while their offering is not always box office, there will continue to be enough of a market for it. On 7 May, we could well get our answer.
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