One remarkable thing about Donald Trump’s adventure in Venezuela is just how old-fashioned it is. It is a world away from George W. Bush’s neoconservative efforts at nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is little attempt to justify the arrest of Nicolás Maduro in terms of the human rights of Venezuelan citizens. Little attention appears to have been paid as to how the country will now be governed. Nor have we heard much more about the drugs crimes of Maduro, other than the admission that he perhaps isn’t, after all, quite the lynchpin of an international criminal racket (for all his other offenses against his own people). With the seizure of the “shadow fleet” tanker Marinera on Wednesday, and the pronouncements by Energy Secretary Chris Wright about the Trump administration’s intention to control sales of Venezuelan oil, it has become clear that this is really a battle for trade routes in the manner of the proto-British Empire.
According to Wright, the US intends to seek indefinite control of sales of Venezuelan oil. That will involves not just the seizure of sanctions-busting shadow oil tankers but the US handling all oil sales from Venezuela, with the proceeds being deposited in US government bank accounts – before the money is, allegedly, distributed back to the people of Venezuela. But there is a big hole in this plan. While the seizure of Maduro and his transfer to a US courtroom was conducted remarkably efficiently, the US government does not govern Venezuela, and neither does it appear to have much of a plan for doing so. It merely seeks rule over commerce.
But if you do not govern a country, how do you ensure that it plays to your tune on commerce? It might make sense to Trump for Venezuelans to allow the US to control its oil industry and to enjoy a share of the proceeds, but that is not necessarily how it will seem to the armed militias who are likely to take advantage of the absence of Maduro. They are less likely to be motivated by the desire to increase the lamentably low GDP per capita of Venezuela than in the raw exercise of power.
The danger for Trump is that he ends up becoming sucked ever deeper into the governance of Venezuela – a country which, like Libya after the overthrow of General Gaddafi, is likely to become quickly ungovernable. This is what happened with the British Empire, which did not begin with a plan to rule over a quarter of the Earth’s population. That came later, by stealth, as the British began to realize that they couldn’t really control trade without political rule. The high-minded efforts to civilize the people of the Empire, backed by military and civilian administrators, were an afterthought; what came first was the East India Company and its purely commercial intentions.
Trump may well win his battle against the shadow fleet of oil tankers on the high seas, but it is going to be difficult if not impossible to restore Venezuela’s oil infrastructure while surrounded by hostile militias. It will certainly require a hefty military presence. The people of Venezuela, however many of them may have hated Maduro, are not necessarily going to take kindly to the US military taking control – any more than the Iraqi people appreciated the US military after the fall of the hated Saddam Hussein.
The seizure of Maduro was a masterstroke. It is far from clear, however, if Trump or his advisors have really thought through the aftermath.
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