Over on his blog, Ben Brogan dissents from the conventional Westminster wisdom that Glasgow East is make or break for Brown, arguing that the polls post-conference will be more important:
But even if Labour do lose – and I don’t think they will (gulp) – I’m not so sure it will trigger the kind of armaggedon folk are predicting. For why? Because things are bad enough already. A wild result in a Scottish seat is unlikely to tell us something we don’t already know: Gordon Brown is in trouble everywhere, even at home. But Scottish politics is different and the SNP are not the Tories. Labour MPs, those that haven’t already disappeared on holiday, may just shrug. No, as much as it would be nice to imagine a summer meltdown at the national policy forum that weekend, I reckon the tough time will be those dead weeks of September before the conferences. Folk will be back from holidays, galvanised by sun and sancerre. They may be tempted to stir things up (remember how September 2006 did for Tony Blair). Then there are the conferences, and the crucial weekend after the Tory bash. Will the polls show the Tory lead pulled back to manageable levels – say 10pts – after a Brown barnstormer? Or will the Tories cap an extraordinary year by emerging from their gig 35pts ahead? That’s when the phones will hum, regardless of whether Mr Brown wins or loses Glasgow East.
Conferences can change a lot of things, remember how much pressure Cameron was under coming into last year’s Tory conference. But the result in Glasgow East is going to play a large part in determining the mood of the Labour conference. Even if there is no immediate move against Brown following a loss in Glasgow East, a defeat there will still lead to a fractious fringe and every speech by a cabinet minister being written up as a leadership bid. In these circumstances, it will be nigh-on-impossible for Brown to have a conference that is good enough to turn things round.
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