Tom Goodenough

As the countdown to the EU referendum debate continues, the momentum appears to have continued to swing towards Brexit: 'Leave' went ahead in the polls last week, with one survey putting them five points clear of 'Remain'. What's more, David Cameron has looked more and more rattled. Yesterday, he had to answer questions on Marr about whether he really believed his warnings over Brexit, given that the UK leaving the European Union now doesn't seem so unlikely. So if Project Fear isn't paying off, what can the 'Remain' camp do to try and regain control of the debate? The answer for the Prime Minister this week is to take a step back from the campaign trail. Instead, Labour figures from the past and present will be urging their party's supporters not to back Brexit.

To subscribe to The Spectator’s weekly podcast, for free, visit the iTunes store or click here for our RSS feed. Alternatively, you can follow us on SoundCloud. The EU referendum on June 23rd looks set to be one of the most important political moments in a generation. But if Britain does vote out, what would the next 100 days actually be like? The Prime Minister has predicted disastrous consequences, saying Brexit would plant a bomb under the economy. And we've been warned that house prices will crash and everything from air fares to ice cream will cost more. So, would Cameron step down straight away and watch the pound tumble? James Forsyth says in his Spectator column that a vote to leave would be a defining event in recent British political history.

A week after Angela Merkel intervened in the Brexit debate to say she hopes Britain stays in the EU, Germany’s Spiegel magazine has also waded in. The magazine’s headline is certainly emotive: ‘Please don’t go’, it urges, in an issue which includes several pages in English in a bid to reach out to Brits. As with the clear-cut message on the front cover, the magazine’s poll on whether Germans want Britain to stay in the EU is also conclusive. Spiegel’s survey, conducted by TNS, showed that 79 per cent of people in Germany thought Britain should remain in the EU. It’s possible that this attitude derives from the popularity of the EU in Germany (in the same poll, just 13 per cent of Germans wanted their own country to walk away from the EU).

Is the looming prospect of Brexit dampening trade with other EU countries? Not if the latest trade statistics are anything to go on. Figures out today – the final set to be published before the referendum – show that imports to the UK from other EU countries are at a record high: rising by £1bn between March and April this year. Britain’s exports to other EU countries also rose in the same period – jumping by £0.9bn, with oil and chemicals making up a large chunk of this number (£0.5bn). These figures can be interpreted in two ways and as with many things to do with the EU referendum, both ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ could argue these statistics make their case for their respective arguments.

David Cameron and Nigel Farage both avoided making any disastrous blunders during last night's TV showdown and for that reason alone they'll be pleased with their performances. Those in the 'Leave' camp especially were concerned about what Farage might do or say when he took to the stage. On the basis of last night's showing, however, they need not have worried too much (albeit for the moment he told a woman watching to calm down). But as with last week's EU events involving the Prime Minister and Michael Gove, much of the press coverage doesn't focus on the two politicians who took the stage. Instead, it's those in the audience who made life difficult for Farage and Cameron who get much of the attention. So what did the papers make of who came out on top?

Momentum in the 'Leave' campaign seems to be growing after Brexit took the lead in two polls out today. There are, however, still several weeks until the actual day of the EU referendum and the gap between the two sides remains marginal (four per cent). But 'Remain' still seem shaken by these polls. Here's how they spent the day fighting back: David Cameron said Brexit would put a bomb under Britain's economy, going on to say that 'the worst thing is, we would have lit the fuse ourselves': The PM was backed up Lib Dem leader Tim Farron. In a joint event, Farron said the argument for 'Leave' was built on 'utter, invented rubbish': But in the tit-for-tat battle which is the EU referendum, the 'Leave' campaign also went on the offensive today.

David Cameron might have emerged virtually unscathed from his first major EU referendum showdown last night. But the focus in much of the press coverage today is not on the Prime Minister. Instead, the anger and hostility of those in the audience leads most of the round-ups in the morning papers of how Cameron got on in the Sky debate. His 'scaremongering' was repeatedly mocked. He was also laughed at over his 'WW3' Brexit suggestion by those watching. This was 'Project Fear' on trial. So what did the papers make of it all? The Prime Minister's failure to put a date on when he would meet his promise to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands is the focus in The Times.

Angela Merkel has waded into the Brexit debate. Her stance won’t surprise anyone – she hopes that Britain stays put. But what’s interesting about her intervention is that it comes after it seemed she was reluctant to speak out, for fear of helping the leave cause. The Sunday Times reported earlier this month that Downing Street believed such an expression of her views on Brexit would be counterproductive. Admittedly, when she made her comments today, she clarified that they were her personal view. They also appeared to be, to say it mildly, lukewarm. Here's what she said: ‘Obviously, it is up to the citizens of the UK themselves how they wish to vote on the upcoming referendum.

Labour voters will prove crucial in determining the outcome of the EU referendum, which makes the party's near silence on the issue all the more surprising. Whilst the Labour leadership maintain their reticence, however, the TUC has stepped in with a report out today. In it, the TUC warns that Brexit would cut pay by an average of £38 a week by 2030. Brexit will also send Britain into a 'steep decline', Frances O'Grady, the TUC's General Secretary says. Given that the maths behind this hasn't been published yet, it's difficult to know how the figures were compiled. It's also probably good to be sceptical of such an exact calculation on hypothetical scenarios.

The latest EU referendum poll indicates that voters have swung considerably towards backing Brexit. 52 per cent of people surveyed said they were planning on voting for Britain to leave the European Union, compared to 48 per cent who are voting in. The ICM poll, carried out for the Guardian, is significant for two reasons. Firstly, it flies in the face of the prevailing view that remain has surged ahead. In recent weeks, those campaigning for Britain to stay put in Europe appear to have enjoyed a significant margin of support over the leave campaign. A poll of polls compiled by WhatUKThinks last week suggested an almost exact opposite to the figures out today: giving remain 53 per cent of the vote to leave's 47 per cent.

If you've become fed-up with half-baked Treasury statistics, the start of the purdah period is welcome news. The ban on Government and Civil Service resources being used to put forward the case for 'remain', means there will be no more of those. But with 'remain' having pushed ahead in the polls over the last few weeks, will this now help level the playing field? Based on how the Government has tried to press home the advantage of using its huge resources right up until the last moment, it seems that there are certainly jitters about that happening.

Ever since David Cameron declared he wanted to get net migration down to below 100,000 the migration figures have caused him a headache. Today's are particularly sensitive given that they're out just a day before the EU referendum purdah period starts. Confirming net migration more than three times Cameron's supposed maximum, and half of the rise being EU nationals, the data will help the Brexiteers argue that we need to leave the EU to restore border control. The potency of this argument has resulted in a subtle shift in the Brexit campaigning strategy, which appears to have placed immigration (not the NHS or the economy) at the centre of their argument. The ONS release shows that net migration of 333,000 last year, a rise of some 20,000.