Tom Goodenough

Security is supposed to be Theresa May’s strong point. Today, it looked like her Achilles heel. The Prime Minister used a speech this morning to pit herself against Jeremy Corbyn as the one to trust on Brexit and keeping Britain safe. At the same venue as her leadership launch last year, May painted a familiar image of herself as a politician who doesn’t ‘gossip’ and gets on with the job as she accused Corbyn of an 'abdication of leadership’. But in the Q and A afterwards, it wasn’t the Labour leader’s record which was up for discussion. Instead, it was May’s time as Home Secretary which came under close scrutiny.

Only a few weeks ago, the polls brought nothing but joy for the Tories. With just six days to go until election day, that’s no longer the case. An Ipsos MORI survey out today cuts the Conservative lead down to just five points. Labour’s support has burst through the 40 per cent mark - rising by six points since Ipsos MORI's last poll on May 18th. The poll comes off the back of this week’s shock YouGov estimate, which suggested we could be heading for a hung Parliament. And YouGov’s updated election model for today doesn’t bring any better news for the Tories: it suggests that Theresa May will now fall 13 seats short of an overall majority. Today’s Ipsos MORI poll is interesting for three reasons.

A YouGov poll suggesting we could be heading for a hung parliament caused a furore in Westminster yesterday - but should we believe it? The Times defends the estimate in its leader this morning, saying that while it’s right to treat the poll with ‘scepticism’, it says ‘the figures are based on interviews with many thousands of people and (uses) sophisticated statistical techniques’. The results might be ‘surprising’, the paper concedes, but that’s ‘precisely why they need to be scrutinised'. Admittedly, there are a few ‘caveats’: ‘the model takes only a snapshot’ - and voters ‘can still change their minds’. But one thing is clear: ‘the direction of travel’.

Can we trust the pollsters? Bruised by Brexit and caught out by Trump, the psephologists claim they’ve finally learnt their lesson. If so, that’s a big problem for the Tories: today’s YouGov poll predicts that the party is on course for an electoral upset which could see them lose their majority. YouGov have been busy defending the numbers behind the headline this morning, and the company's Joe Twyman has been doing just that on the Spectator's Coffee House Shots podcast. So, given YouGov failed to get it right in 2015, why should we believe them this time? And will the pollsters end up tweaking their assumptions? Here's Joe Twyman: 'We are confident in the power of our data and the smart of our data scientists, that we have something that works.

Jeremy Corbyn defied his critics by coming across well during last night’s debate and Labour is continuing to enjoy a revival in the polls. But the Labour leader is still facing a tough time in the press: Take a look in the small print of Labour’s plan for government, says the Daily Mail, and there’s a nasty shock waiting for you. The ‘Land Value Tax’ - which has been ‘highly praised by Jeremy Corbyn’ could ‘add more than £2,500 to the annual council tax bill’, according to the Tories. And it’s clear, says the Mail, that LVT would hit those with gardens the hardest. More worryingly though, the proposal ‘would inevitably cause widespread hardship to help fund a massive expansion of the State’.

If Ukip’s vote really does hit the floor come June 8th, the party’s leader won’t be granted a coveted prime-time slot on BBC One to make their mark. Thanks to Ukip’s past success, Paul Nuttall did get that opportunity tonight. But the Ukip leader’s plan did not fare well for coming under the scrutiny of Andrew Neil. On Brexit, it’s a point widely made that Ukip is a victim of the referendum result. In his interview tonight, Nuttall made it clear that the best the party can offer for the time being is an insurance policy that he hopes won’t be needed. The Ukip leader told Andrew Neil that he wants Theresa May to succeed - and yet by Nuttall’s own reckoning, he needs the PM to fail.

Corbyn is closing in on May, the Times reports this morning, as a poll from YouGov shows the gap between the two parties is down to just five points with less than two weeks to go until election day. The latest numbers show the Conservatives have, once again, seen their support drop: this time by one point, down to 43 per cent. Labour meanwhile have enjoyed a three point bump, up to 38 per cent. If this were replicated come June 8th, it would be bad news for Theresa May: she would be a Prime Minister under pressure, with her party’s majority slimmed down to just two. Talk of a Tory landslide would be a distant memory and May would be forced to defend her decision to call a snap election.

Ukip's success in pursuing the Tories over Brexit will be remembered for a long time. Now, the party thinks it has a new bone of contention with which to go after the government: keeping Britain safe. In the wake of Monday’s night’s attack, Ukip wants to paint itself as the only party serious about rooting out Islamic fundamentalism and tackling terrorism. As if to make that point, while the Tory and Labour national campaigns remained suspended this morning, Ukip pressed ahead with its manifesto launch today. Nuttall came under pressure at the event over this decision, and was asked repeatedly whether he was trying to capitalise on the attack by focusing so squarely on the terror threat.

Theresa May promised ‘the first ever proper plan to pay for – and provide –social care’ in the party’s manifesto. Four days later, that plan has now changed. The Prime Minister has said that there will, after all, be a cap on the amount people have to pay for the cost of their care. So what made May change her mind? Jeremy Corbyn, according to the PM. May said that ‘since my manifesto has been published, my proposals have been subjected to fake claims made by Jeremy Corbyn’. The reaction to the policy, May suggested, meant that the government would ditch the manifesto plan.

Labour had a day to forget yesterday: the party’s leaked manifesto was plastered all over the newspapers, its leader was a no show at Labour’s poster launch and Corbyn’s car collided with a BBC cameraman. On the plus side, the party has succeeded in snatching the headlines away from the Tories. But is this wall-to-wall coverage a good thing? Here’s what the newspaper editorials are making of Labour’s manifesto: Labour’s plan for government is a ‘misguided bid to turn the clock back’, according to the FT. In its damning editorial, the paper says that its clear the opposition wants to ditch the ‘market economy’ which has ‘delivered prosperity for Britain’ for a generation.

Labour is meeting today to finalise its manifesto. The only sticking point? A draft manifesto has already been leaked. The party’s plans to woo voters are splashed across the Daily Telegraph and the Mirror. They’ve also been leaked to the BBC. Make no mistake: this is a huge embarrassment for the party and does nothing to dispel the Tory attack line that Labour would be at the forefront of a coalition of chaos if it wins come June 9th. After all, if it can’t get its manifesto launch right, how can Labour be trusted to govern? So what does the manifesto say? There are few surprises. But for Corbyn’s supporters, this is a Christmas and birthday wishlist rolled into one. For those in the centre ground, there’s much less on offer to win their vote.