Steerpike

Good heavens. One of the many polls released today has suggested that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could become the first sitting Prime Minister to lose their seat at a general election. The Savanta and Electoral Calculus poll for the Telegraph predicts that the Conservative party could be left with just 53 MPs – with the party leader not being one of them. Crikey. The Telegraph's MRP poll – which concluded the Tories are on course to face overwhelming defeat from a disillusioned electorate – surveyed approximately 18,000 people from 7-18 June. It concluded that Sunak is predicted to lose his Richmond seat to Sir Keir's Labour party – although the survey suggests that the contest for the seat will be a close one.

Are the Tories feeling the heat from Reform? Apparently so, if online adverts are anything to go by, with London-based Facebook users complaining of an increase in online adverts targeting Nigel Farage’s party. The latest example involves an advert which tells social media users ‘Vote Reform, Get Labour’ — a phrase trotted out regularly by numerous Tory politicians. Facebook rules say that when an advert is about ‘social issues, elections or politics’, those paying for the adverts ‘are required to disclose who paid for the ad’. In this case, the advertiser has been listed as ‘3rd Party Ltd’. On 3rd Party Ltd’s website, the organisation says it is registered with the Electoral Commission as a ‘non-party campaigner’.

Humza Yousaf is back with a bang. Now the embattled politician has taken to the Grauniad’s opinion pages to write a fiery piece on ‘anti-Muslim hatred’. In an explosive entry, the ex-SNP leader claims that Muslims across the continent are ‘fearful’ due to ‘growing popularity and mainstreaming of the far right’. 'It is increasingly difficult to persuade fellow Muslims that Europe does not have a problem with our very existence,’ he notes. In 2024, almost half the world’s population will take part in elections. Many countries have already gone to the polls, and in a number of countries, particularly across Europe, the biggest gains have been made by those who make a living out of vilifying Muslims.

At long last, Boris Johnson has joined the campaign trail. With less than three weeks to go until polling day, the former prime minister has today urged voters to back Rishi Sunak's wounded party – just hours after a YouGov poll revealed that support for Reform has overtaken the Tories for the first time. And no stranger to internal party politics, Johnson raised eyebrows this morning when he publicly backed Sir Simon Clarke in a short video. This is, after all, the MP who was so disillusioned by Sunak's leadership that at the start of the year he took to the pages of the Telegraph to urge the PM to quit. Back in January, Clarke called for Sunak's resignation, before warning the party was on track for an electoral 'massacre'.

Today's a big day in the election calendar. This morning, Labour launched its official manifesto, while campaigners hit the three-week countdown until the big day. As even the Tories seem to have accepted that the 5 July will see a victory for Sir Keir and his Starmtroopers, one Labour candidate seems to be especially enjoying herself on the election trail. Dawn Butler, standing in new constituency Brent East, is ramping up her campaigning as polling day looms ever closer. Taking a leaf out of the SNP's book – after Falkirk candidate Toni Giugliano created a Spotify song in an attempt to woo voters – Butler has decided that the best way to convince her constituents that she's their woman is to release an, um, rap video. It's certainly one way to get noticed...

Oh dear. Now it has transpired that the Prime Minister's closest parliamentary aide, Craig Williams, placed a £100 bet on there being a July election — just three days before a rain-drenched Rishi Sunak announced the date to the public. The Guardian has tonight revealed that the Gambling Commission has launched an inquiry into the PM's private secretary after Williams placed a bet with Ladbrokes on Sunday 19 May. With odds of 5/1, Williams was set to receive £500. After the bet was placed, it is understood that a red flag was raised by the gambling company, as Williams’ was flagged as a 'politically exposed person' and the bookmaker was keeping tabs on 'novelty' markets. In a statement, the Welsh MP has since said: I put a flutter on the general election some weeks ago.