Sebastian Payne

Thursday

Sebastian Payne

Podcast: what if Ed wins, the madness of Scottish politics and Catholic wars

From our UK edition

Ed Miliband could still win the general election, but what would happen next? On the latest View from 22 podcast, The Telegraph’s Dan Hodges discusses this week's Spectator cover feature on what to expect from a Miliband premiership with George Eaton of the New Statesman. Would Miliband manage to take his lofty ideas about reshaping capitalism into No.10? Or would he be more pragmatic in power? Like his mentor Gordon Brown, could Miliband's indecisiveness turn out to be a fatal flaw? James Forsyth and Alex Massie also discuss the current madness of Scottish politics.

Wednesday

Sebastian Payne

Ashcroft marginal polls show Tory-Labour races remain tight — and Ukip is falling behind

From our UK edition

The Tory-Labour battleground remains very close. Lord Ashcroft has returned to ten competitive marginal seats in his latest round of polling and has found swings to Labour, ranging from 0.5 per cent to four per cent. According to his latest polls, the Conservatives are set to hold onto five of these marginals: Blackpool North & Cleveleys, Gloucester, Kingswood, Pendle and Loughborough — the last represented by Education Secretary Nicky Morgan. Use the interactive chart above to see the latest polls. In the other five marginals, Pudsey is a tie between the two parties — as it was in November last year — while Labour is set to take Harrow East, Hove, Morecambe & Lunesdale and Stockton South.

Sebastian Payne

Watch: Green Party releases quirky PPB with spoof boy band ‘Coalition’

From our UK edition

The party political broadcasts of this campaign have been pretty dull. Until the Green Party released its video entitled ‘Change The Tune’ this afternoon, that is. The Greens suggest that David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage are all so similar they might as well be in the same boyband. Cue some truly terrible lookalikes in the band 'Coalition' singing about ‘a party political harmony’, ‘austerity, oh austerity’ and ‘joining the one true coalition’. You can watch the PPB — which has surprisingly high production values for a small party — above, or download the song (for free) from Bandcamp.

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: 29 days to go

From our UK edition

Finally, we have a policy to debate. Ed Miliband has set the agenda for the campaign today with a pledge that Labour would scrap the ‘non-dom’ tax status. After weeks of personal attacks, Miliband has shaken things up a little — but is the announcement already falling apart? To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today's main stories. 1. No more non-doms In a speech at Warwick University today, Ed Miliband will say ‘there are now 116,000 non-doms, costing hundreds of millions of pounds to our country, it can no longer be justified.’ In short, having non-dom tax status is a way for very wealthy people to avoid paying tax.

Tuesday

Sebastian Payne

Listen: The Spectator’s take on the Scottish leaders’ debates

From our UK edition

The Scottish leaders' debate was, so far, the most informative TV debate of the campaign. In a View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I analyse which party leaders gained the most from this evening's STV programme. Was the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon successful in defending her party's record? Did Labour's Jim Murphy say anything to tempt back the thousands of disaffected Scottish Labour voters? And did the Conservatives' Ruth Davidson or Liberal Democrats' Willie Rennie manage to score any points?

Sebastian Payne

Ukip may be slipping in the polls but it will still have a big impact on the election

From our UK edition

Is the Ukip bandwagon slowing down? Today’s Sun reports that Ukip has lost a quarter of its voters since November, from an average of 16.75 per cent in polls last November to 12.25 per cent in March. As the chart below shows, Ukip’s share of the vote, according to YouGov, has been the slide since the heady days of the Rochester & Strood and Clacton by-elections: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/dEo2g/index.html"] Nigel Farage has even admitted that the march of the people's army has stalled. But when asked by the Telegraph this afternoon if he was ‘panicking’, he responded ‘good Lord, no!

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: 30 days to go

From our UK edition

With the Easter break now over, the general election campaign will notch up a gear today as the political parties try to make the most of the last month of campaigning. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, we’ll be posting a summary every morning of the main events so you know what to expect from the day ahead. 1. Blair’s back — again After a series of cryptic interviews in which he appeared to complain about the direction of the Labour Party, Tony Blair has gone loyal for the campaign. The Guardian reports that the former Prime Minister will be speaking in his old Sedgefield constituency — alongside his wife Cherie — to warn of the ‘chaos’ David Cameron’s EU referendum would cause.

Sunday

Sebastian Payne

The poll that could mean the end for Nigel Farage

From our UK edition

Nigel Farage’s career is on the brink. Aside from his solid performance in the TV debate last week, the Ukip leader isn’t focusing on the party’s national standing. All that matters to Farage now is South Thanet and making sure he is elected as the constituency’s first Ukip MP. But the seat is not a sure win and fears have been spreading throughout the party about what would happen if he fails to be elected. These fears will only be exacerbated by today’s Mail on Sunday splash, which reports that a ‘Ukip-commissioned poll...shows that Farage has fallen behind his Tory opponent in the Kent seat he is contesting. And he is in danger of finishing third, with Labour catching up fast.

Thursday

Sebastian Payne

Listen: The Spectator’s verdict on the TV leaders’ debate

From our UK edition

The snap polls suggest there was no immediate winner of the televised leaders' debate on ITV — so what happened? In this View from 22 podcast special, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss the first (and last) debate  of the general election campaign with all the party leaders. While the consensus is that Nicola Sturgeon met the high expectations, did the other insurgent leader Nigel Farage fall short? Was David Cameron able to appear Prime Ministerial or did Ed Miliband successfully challenge him? And will the programme make any difference to the election campaign and result?

Sebastian Payne

Podcast special: the seven-way TV leaders debate

From our UK edition

Tonight's televised debate between seven of the party leaders promises to be one of the most interesting events of the campaign. In this View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman, James Forsyth and I discuss who is expected to do well, the issues that will be raised, which leaders will gang up on David Cameron and whether Ed Miliband can meet the high expectations, As with the Q&A programme last week, we'll be running a live blog on Coffee House from 7:45pm this evening, so you can follow our instant reaction to the debate.

Wednesday

Sebastian Payne

Why doesn’t Osborne admit the link between the jobs miracle and slowing down deficit reduction?

From our UK edition

Will George Osborne come ever clean about his successes? I caught up with the Chancellor in Leeds today and asked him about the Treasury’s role in the jobs miracle. I put it to him: isn’t it the case that he has decided to go slower on deficit reduction to support the jobs boom? The figures show that this is exactly what’s happened: the Treasury isn’t getting as much tax in because so much of the increase in employment is in low-paid jobs. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/N7pwS/index.html"] Osborne has decided to cut these workers' taxes, and even support their income through tax credits.

Sebastian Payne

Could Nick Clegg really lose his seat?

From our UK edition

Will the Liberal Democrats avoid being wiped out at the upcoming election? In his latest round of constituency polling, Lord Ashcroft has revisited eight Liberal Democrat marginal constituencies he deems to be close races. Across all the seats, Ashcroft reports there is presently a four per cent swing to the Tories since the last election. Use the interactive chart to see the polls for each constituency. The picture is mixed for the Lib Dems. In four of the seats — North Cornwall, St Ives, Torbay and Cambridge — they are on track to hold the seats, despite swings to the Conservatives. But the Tories are ahead in two Lib Dem seats: St Austell & Newquay and North Devon, although the Conservatives are ahead by  just one point.

Tuesday

Sebastian Payne

New poll shows SNP will annihilate Labour — but the nation is still divided over independence

From our UK edition

Scottish Labour is having no luck in denting the SNP’s support. ComRes/ITV News have released a new poll this evening, which shows a 19 per cent swing to the SNP across the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland. Based on this, the SNP would take 28 of these seats in the upcoming general election. North of the border, ComRes puts the SNP on 43 per cent, Labour on 37, the Tories on 13 and Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens on two per cent each. The ComRes findings fall in line with the other polls taken in Scotland from Lord Ashcroft and ICM — the latter recently suggested that the SNP would take 29 seats from Labour with a 20 per cent swing.

Sebastian Payne

Mini Election: what’s on the mind of Scottish nationalists?

From our UK edition

The Scottish nationalists are in a buoyant mood. At last weekend’s spring conference in Glasgow, the 3,000-odd SNPers had two main issues for the upcoming general election: fighting both the Westminster establishment and the coalition's austerity programme. In the latest Mini Election video, watch above, I spoke to some SNP supporters to find out what’s on their minds. When the conference opened on Saturday morning, the crowd were asked if they were new SNP members or first time attendees of an SNP conference. The majority of those represent in the hall raised their hands, showing just how much the party has grown since the referendum in September.

Monday

Sebastian Payne

Two more polls suggest Ed Miliband’s ‘Paxo bounce’ is sliding away

From our UK edition

Ed Miliband's so-called ‘Paxo bounce’ in the opinion polls is ebbing away. The polls out this evening have the Conservatives either level pegging with Labour or slightly ahead. Tonight’s latest from YouGov/The Sun has both parties neck and neck, with the Conservatives and Labour on 35 per cent — a three point rise for the Tories on Sunday — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and the Greens on five. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Tories two points ahead on 36 per cent, up three points from last week. The Tory pollster has Labour on 34 per cent, Ukip on ten, the Lib Dems on six and the Greens on five.

Sebastian Payne

Watch: new party political broadcasts from the Tories and Labour

From our UK edition

Lucky viewers of BBC One this evening will have seen the Conservative party’s brand new political broadcast. Entitled ‘Securing a better future for your family’ — watch above — the saccharine video is designed to soften the hearts of even the most ardent Tory haters. Loaded with messages about abolishing the deficit, cutting income tax, investing in the NHS, creating millions of apprenticeships and extending Help to Buy, the PPB is targeted at one demographic: families. The Tories are often accused of purely concentrating on the ‘grey vote’, with messages and policies designed to appeal to pensioners, who are much more likely to actually vote.

Sebastian Payne

First poll of the campaign puts the Tories four points ahead

From our UK edition

And we’re off! Today is the first day of the proper general election campaign and the rollercoaster of polls continues. ComRes/ITV News/Daily Mail have released a new poll putting the Conservatives four points ahead —  their biggest lead since September 2010 — which is the complete opposite of yesterday’s YouGov shocker. According to ComRes, the Conservatives are currently on 36 per cent, Labour has dropped to 32 per cent, Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on nine and the Greens on five. As with the YouGov poll, the fieldwork was conducted after the Paxman Q&A on Thursday but the numbers are favourable to David Cameron.

Sunday

Sebastian Payne

Alex Salmond invades the stage and appeals to the cultish side of the SNP

From our UK edition

Alex Salmond has been oddly absent from the SNP’s spring conference this weekend. Although the former First Minister’s only official positions are as the MSP for Aberdeenshire East and the PPC for Gordon, it's puzzling why one of the party's most prominent figures wasn't given a prime speaking slot. But that didn’t stop him from trying to steal the show. A small stage was setup in the hall for a Q&A session to promote his new book at lunchtime today. But as soon as Salmond arrived, a combination of sound issues and the ecstatic crowd led him to give up on the side stage and invade the main platform. As the video shows, he had no qualms about strolling into the limelight. Incredible - Alex Salmond quits the small Q&A stage to take to the main stage.

Sebastian Payne

Podcast special: eve of the general election campaign + SNP spring conference

From our UK edition

The general election campaign kicks off tomorrow and Labour appears to have the 'Big Mo'. In this View from 22 podcast special,  Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss the state of the polls — and the new YouGov/Sunday Times poll which suggests Labour are four points ahead — and whether Ed Miliband's 'win' in the TV Q&A this week has put the Tories on the back foot. What can we expect to happen in the first week of the campaign?

Saturday

Sebastian Payne

Nicola Sturgeon’s speech in Glasgow highlights the similarities between the SNP and Ukip

From our UK edition

Is Nicola Sturgeon trying to channel Nigel Farage? Scotland’s First Minister regaled the 3,000-strong crowd at the SNP’s spring conference today with some nuggets of policy, more demands for Ed Miliband and even a swipe at Margaret Thatcher. But she also positioned herself as part of a UK-wide movement seeking to 'shake up' Westminster in the name of 'ordinary people'. You might add: the Ukip of the north. SNP folk loathe being compared to Ukip. In fact, when I was writing this piece in a bar at the conference centre, I was berated by a group of Nats who spotted the headline and took me to task. But let’s face it: both are populist-nationalists who love to rail against the Westminster elite.