Peter Hoskin

Blair’s former speechwriter spells it out for Labour

From our UK edition

As always, Comment Central's latest exchange between Danny Finkelstein and Philip Collins, Tony Blair's former speechwriter, is a great read.  But I figured CoffeeHousers might enjoy this passage in particular. Daniel Finkelstein: Do people in the Labour get it, in your opinion? At Cabinet level, say, or senior adviser level, do they see what is coming [in the next election]? Philip Collins: No, I don't think they get it at all. To help them I am going to write the next bit in capital letters. YOU ARE GOING TO GET SLAUGHTERED. Quite.

Understanding defeat

From our UK edition

With the government spin machine heating up lines about "difficult circumstances," it's worth heading over to Progress for a levelheaded Labour response to their defeat in Norwich North.  The author is Paul Richards - Hazel Blears' former SpAd - and he sets out five lessons for the party, starting with "Let's stop shooting ourselves in both feet," and ending on a sublime note with, "We are not characters in Monty Python and the Holy Grail."  The standout lesson, though, is the third: One thing that many Labour figures may be pondering is whether it's worth pleading with Ian Gibson to return as their candidate for the general election.

Norwich North: full results

From our UK edition

So the results are finally in from Norwich North.  Here they are: 1st: Conservatives --- 13,591 votes 2nd: Labour --- 6,243 votes 3rd: Lib Dems --- 4,809 votes 4th: UKIP --- 4,068 votes 5th: Greens --- 3,350 votes Majority: 7,348 Swing: 16.49 percent Labour are going to try and spin the sub-40 percent result as a disappointment for the Tories, and their own position in second as some sort of triumph for a governing party operating in "difficult times".  But, expectations management aside, the scale of the Tory majority far, far outstrips the predictions made by almost every Tory I've spoken to - as well those made by most other observers - and the swing is over double the level they'll need to triumph in the general election.

Lawson expects an emergency Budget

From our UK edition

Oh yes, there will be spending cuts, and they'll have to be big.  That's something CoffeeHousers knew already, of course - but it's a message which is worth repeating if our country's going to have anything like a chance of overcoming Brown's debt crisis.  So bravo to this morning's Guardian, which spells it out in a public spending special*.  They've got the IFS on board to describe how we'll need 16 percent cuts across all departments if the two main parties commit to ringfencing health, education, overseas aid, defence etc.  There's a survey of the views of certain think-tanks, consultancies and policy wonks.  And interviews with four former Chancellors - Lawson, Howe, Healey and Lamont - who also set out the case for cuts. It's all worth reading.

Thatcher’s new model speech

From our UK edition

As a few CoffeeHousers' have pointed out, Ben Brogan's column today is useful not just for the single snippet which I mentioned earlier.  Amid a sharp analysis of what the two party leaders are looking to achieve over the next few weeks, Brogan also notes that Team Cameron are reading through Margaret Thatcher's speech to the 1978 Tory conference in prepation for Cameron's own pre-election conference address.  In which case, I've pasted Thatcher's speech below with a few comments on what Cameron may look to draw from it: Speech to Conservative Party conference, Margaret Thatcher, 13 October 1978 I must first thank you, Madame Chairman, for the wonderful heart-warming welcome. I confess that this is the biggest birthday party that I have ever had.

The politics of troop numbers

From our UK edition

So could more troops be sent to Afghanistan after all?  In his press conference yesterday, Brown referred to boosted troop numbers for the Afghan elections in August, but neglected to point out that's just a temporary increase.  But now an article in the Independent says that may actually become permanent, and that the government may be considering an even larger deployment: "The Government is expected to announce reinforcements for British troops in Afghanistan within a month, in a victory for military commanders over politicians in Westminster. Gordon Brown rejected a request from commanders this year for an extra 2,000 to 2,500 soldiers and sent a temporary force of 700 to provide security for the Afghan elections.

Joined-up government

From our UK edition

This snippet from Ben Brogan's column today is too good not to pull out: "[Brown']s advisers have been known to protect their own holidays by surreptitiously deleting their numbers from his mobile." Still, I suppose it won't prevent our dear PM from getting on with the job.

Brown’s press conference: live blog | 22 July 2009

From our UK edition

Stay tuned for live coverage of Brown's monthly presser from 1200. 1157: The Downing Street website tells us to expect an update on "the progress that has been made since the launch of the Building Britain’s Future programme" (groan), but expect Afghanistan to dominate the questioning.  On that front, Brown's life may have been made slightly easier by Malloch Brown's odd "clarification" to his comments in the Telegraph this morning. 1202: And here's the Dear Leader now.  He begins by paying his condolences to the families of three servicemen killed in Afghanistan recently, adding that "we continue to make progress" in Helmand.  He also assures us the the government is "doing everything it can" to deal with swine flu.

Aspiring to cut spending

From our UK edition

Remember when Ken Clarke downgraded the Tory inheritance tax plans from a "commitment" to an "aspiration," in view of the fiscal disaster they're set to inherit?  He was, of course, swiftly contradicted by the Tory leadership, which was fearful of being accused of U-turns on some of its most popular policy ideas.  But why bring this up now?  Well, because today "aspiration" has firmly entered the Party Leaders' Lexicon - it features heavily in Nick Clegg's interview with the Independent.  Here's a key passage: "The circumstances are utterly different from anything in the last 15 years. Our shopping list of commitments will be far, far, far, far, far shorter," he said.

Adding up Mandelson’s influence

From our UK edition

Fact of the day comes courtesy of the Standard's Paul Waugh, who reveals that Peter Mandelson sits on no fewer than 35 of the 43 Cabinet committees.  Paul provides a full list over at his blog, but summarises it thus: "The Empire of Mandelsonia now includes health, domestic policy, public spending, immigration, climate change, trade, the economy, Afghanistan, democratic renewal, Africa and 'life chances'". To put this into perspective: Alistair Darling sits on 27 committees, David Miliband on 23, and Gordon Brown on just 12.  Yes, it remains astonishing just how influential and, well, ubiquitous Mandy has become since his return to government last year.

Cameron’s frontbench juggling act

From our UK edition

So David Cameron offers a hand of friendship to aggrieved Tory backbenchers today, by admitting that his way of dealing with the expenses scandal may have involved some "unfairnesses," and by stressing that he intends to involve a raft of Tory veterans - such as Peter Lilley, Stephen Dorrell and James Arbuthnot - in his government.   I'm not sure whether the first part of that will placate more than it enflames, but the second half is sensible enough in principle.  Bringing some Tory veterans back into the fold - especially capable ones like Lilley - should bolster a frontbench which is currently light on governmental experience, and which will most likely have to deal with the terrible fallout from the Brown years.

The moon landing: 40 years on

From our UK edition

As it's forty years since man first landed on the moon, I've trawled through the Speccie archives to see what we wrote about the event at the time.  There's one feature article in the issue dated 26 July, 1969, which I've reprinted below.  Oddly, the landing isn't mentioned on the magazine's cover - and nor is it the topic of that week's leader - but old hands around the office assure me that could have been a result of arcane printing practices, which saw the cover go to print days before the rest of the magazine.  Still, the article the magazine did contain is a neat tribute to human ingenuity and daring.  Here it is:    Success story John Graham Washington The Americans are simply an amazing people.

Spinning from beyond Downing Street

From our UK edition

Guess which disgraced former spin-chief is back?  Yep.  Damian McBride is interviewed in this morning's Guardian and, conveniently enough, gives his take on the Andy Coulson situation.  As you'd expect, his attempts to paint himself as an angel to Coulson's devil are a hoot: "'The reason that matters is that if you can't tell the truth to David Cameron, you can't be expected to tell the truth to the press, and what I know from doing that job is the press must trust you 100% to tell them the truth.' That will prompt hollow laughter from some lobby correspondents, who insist McBride is as ruthless and unscrupulous as his 'McPoison' nickname suggests. But the disgraced spin doctor insists he was always honest.

The Tories’ plan for regulating the banks

From our UK edition

I've just flicked through the Tories' new White Paper on banking regulation, which Osborne & Co. are touting as their "plan for sound banking".  There's much in there which has been trailed or suggested over the past few weeks, but a few new ideas as well.  I'll refrain from going too far into the nitty-gritty, but here are my take-home points: Attack, attack, attack.  Ok, it's to be expected of a White Paper put together by Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, but the language used in the document is strikingly robust.  Entire sections (e.g. Part 1: What Went Wrong, pp.

A procurement strategy which puts troops in danger

From our UK edition

As the row over Afghanistan continues, the Observer has unearthed what could be one of the most damaging revelations for the Government so far: "Defence ministers spurned three separate deals to buy American Black Hawk helicopters which would have helped to plug the dangerous shortage facing British troops in Afghanistan. The most recent rejection came only days ago, the Observer can reveal. A letter sent last week by the defence equipment minister, Quentin Davies, to Sikorsky, the US manufacturer of the Black Hawk, appears to admit that snubbing its latest offer could delay the introduction of desperately needed helicopters into Afghanistan.

Sainsbury sets out a different way of operating

From our UK edition

There's much to ponder in Lord Sainsbury's interview with the Times today.  Does the major Labour donor rate Gordon Brown, for instance?  There's enough ambiguity in some of his answers to suggest not.  And will he continue to give money to Labour ahead of the next election?  Again, there's no definite answer - and that could be enough to provoke nervous jitters in Labour HQ. But the most thought-provoking comments concern the relationship between politicians and the civil service.  Sainsbury is scathing about the "out of date" civil service, which he feels could learn from private sector practices.  Here are some of his key points: "Ministers and civil servants are, he believes, too locked into their departments.

Purnell sets up a summer of trouble for Gordon

From our UK edition

So James Purnell has resurfaced after his resignation from the Cabinet last month, and he's done so with some aplomb.  He's interviewed in tomorrow's Guardian, but the paper are running a preview article on their website.  Among other things, the former work and pensions secretary attacks Labour for being backwards-looking and announces the starts of a new three-year project looking into the future of the party.  Here are some snippets: "In his first major interview since he quit as work and pensions secretary last month, Purnell likens that period in politics to the dynamism and excitement of the music scene generated around Oasis and Blur.

The war on Dannatt continues

From our UK edition

Today's Telegraph has a dispiriting addendum to the spat between Labour figures and General Sir Richard Dannatt which surfaced fully last weekend, and which will intensify after Dannatt's interview with the Beeb this morning.  Here are the key passages: "Relations between the Chief of the General Staff and the Government hit a new low after senior Labour sources warned the general will be 'fair game' for political attacks when he leaves his post at the end of August... ...after Sir Richard’s retirement on August 28, some Labour MPs plan to raise questions about the general’s role in recent decisions on defence policy. One minister said: 'Once he’s gone, we can have a go at him. He can write his book and talk all he wants, but he’ll be fair game then.

The look on Ed Balls’ face

From our UK edition

A great bit of quote-hunting from Paul Waugh, who's tracked down a source to back up Sue Cameron's Chancellor Balls story from yesterday. The testimony he's got is a peach, with the best bit coming right at the end. Here it is in full: Apparently, Balls did indeed clear his diary in those fateful last couple of weeks to sign off the white paper. My source tells me that the minister called his senior civil servants together and told them he was "leaving" [to become Chancellor]. "He didn't allow the faintest hint of doubt," the source says.  "His civil servants had been trying to get him to actually pay it his full attention for months and the list of things needing his attention had grown and grown.

Brown sets an eco-town trap for the Tories

From our UK edition

Oh no.  It looks as though Gordon has been thinking about his legacy again, and four more sites have duly been selected to become eco-towns.  Problem is, they're all pretty much in the Middle of Nowhere, which - as I've blogged before - rather defeats their purpose as being either green or attractive for first-time buyers.  Either Brown's ignoring the fact most young people want to be where the jobs are; in London, Birmingham, Manchester etc.  Or he's expecting all those first-time buyers to do a lot of commuting; which, in turn, means cars, railways, road-building and massive infrastructure projects.  Can you just imagine the carbon footprint?