Peter Hoskin

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Who to believe?

From our UK edition

Which polling company's getting it right in the run-up to the mayoral elections?  YouGov reckons Boris is miles ahead.  ICM have it as neck-and-neck.  And today Ipsos-MORI records a slender lead for Ken.  According to their poll, the incumbent snares 41 percent of first preference votes, compared to 40 percent for Boris.  When second preferences are allocated, Ken leads by 51 percent to 49 percent (although Political Betting suggests some creative rounding may lie behind that result). As Conservative Home points out, this latest poll may actually be a boon for Boris.  The closer the race appears, the more Tory voters will hit the polling stations come 1st May.  Or at least that's the hope.

Peter Hoskin

Amnesty London

From our UK edition

As the Independent reports this morning, Boris has united with the other mayoral candidates in support of an amnesty for illegal immigrants - a move which goes against official Tory policy.  ConservativeHome have the low-down from Team Boris on their man's decision.  Their view is that if illegal immigrants have been here for a long time, then we should get them enrolled in the system so they can contribute taxes etc. Makes sense, non?   However, ConservativeHome contrasts this with David Cameron's view on the issue.  According to the Tory leader, amnesties just build up expectation for another in the future.  In other words, it smacks of a softly-softly approach to illegal immigration. What do CoffeeHousers think?  Who's got the right take on this?

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Rudd gets it right

From our UK edition

Iain Martin is spot-on over at Three Line Whip. Kevin Rudd has shown Gordon Brown exactly how he should have handled the recent Olympic torch relay in London. Here's what the Australian Prime Minster had to say yesterday on the security goons the Chinese brought with them: “We will not be having Chinese security forces or the Chinese security services providing security for the torch when it is in Australia. We, Australia, will be providing that security. What Olympic officials the Chinese bring to Canberra is a matter for them, but on the security front we will be providing that security.” I can't figure out who came out of the London fiasco looking worse – Brown or the Chinese.

Peter Hoskin

What inflation? What debt?

From our UK edition

Ok, so Fraser's already mentioned Brown's denial over the state of the economy.  But this whopper that our Prime Minister just issued in an interview with Nick Robinson can't go unmentioned: "Because we've got low inflation we can cut interest rates, because we have had low debt, we can afford to keep our public spending programme in line." Low inflation?  Low debt?  I'll leave the response to CoffeeHouser RW: "As for Brown, if he really believes the rubbish he's currently spouting then he's seriously deluded, and if he doesn't but keeps on saying it anyway he's not just incompetent but malevolent.

Peter Hoskin

Video head-to-head

From our UK edition

Both Boris and Ken have now released their first election broadcasts - you can watch them both below.  Boris's effort is more pared down, and for me that makes it more engaging and effective.  What do CoffeeHousers think?

Peter Hoskin

Coming to blows

From our UK edition

As always, Rachel Sylvester's column in the Telegraph is essential reading. Today she writes of how divide, doubt and mistrust have permeated every level of the Government. In particular, this revelation jumped out at me: “Behind the scenes, things are even worse. With no clear direction from above, Cabinet ministers are at each other's throats. I am reliably informed that, after one recent Cabinet meeting, Jack Straw threatened to punch Ed Balls during a row about who was responsible for youth crime. The Justice Secretary came back to his department fuming that he had never been spoken to so rudely by a colleague in public and that he was not going to put up with it.” We've been discussing the tensions awakened by Stephen Carter's arrival at Downing Street.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Parisian protests

From our UK edition

The Beijing Olympics are being overshadowed by the Tibet issue on every step of this ridiculous torch relay. And rightly so.    Today it was Paris’ turn to get one over the sinister, shell-suited heavies. The opportunity was seized with relish. Protestors forced the torch to be extinguished three times, and the event was ultimately cut short.   But is the message getting through to those in charge? It’s hard to tell. The International Olympic Committee President, Jacques Rogge, today expressed “serious concern” about the Tibet situation. But that seems to be as far as any official will go. Unless firmer pressure is applied, I can’t see the Chinese Government backing down over anything.

Peter Hoskin

Non-essential viewing

From our UK edition

If you feel like an afternoon nap, then Labour's first local election TV spot (see below) might help you drop off.  If you stick through to the end, there are details of how to send questions through to Gordon Brown - a selection of which he'll answer tonight.  What will CoffeeHousers be asking our Dear Leader?

Peter Hoskin

Past posters

From our UK edition

A few sites across the political blogosphere have already flagged up the newly-digitised Conservative Party Archive Poster Collection, but it deserves a Coffee House mention as well.  I'd recommend you take the time to browse through all the 600-or-so posters they've got there.

Peter Hoskin

Boris’s biggest lead yet

From our UK edition

More great news for Boris today.  Our Man notches up his biggest lead yet in the latest Evening Standard / YouGov poll; claiming 49 percent of first preference votes - whilst Ken languishes on 36 percent.  That's a hefty advantage of 13 percent, then.  When second preference votes are allocated, Boris is on 56 percent, with Ken on 44 percent. These results tally with recent Evening Standard / YouGov polls, which have given Boris 10 and 12-point leads.  But they're out of line with last week's Guardian / ICM poll, which had the two leading candidates neck-and-neck.  Already Team Livingstone is whining that YouGov employs "flawed methodology".  I wonder whether that's more out of hope than conviction.

Peter Hoskin

The chickens come home to roost

From our UK edition

There's more trouble for Gordon Brown this morning over his decision to scrap the 10p tax rate for low-income earners. The Treasury Select committee – lead by the Labour MP John McFall – has the following to say: "The group of main losers from the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax - those below the age of 65 with an income under £18,500 who are in childless households - seem an unreasonable target for raising additional tax revenues to fund the benefits of tax simplification and meeting the needs of children in poverty." It looks increasingly like this issue will drive a wedge between Brown and his party. But what should really concern our Prime Minister is how the public will react. Low-income earners are paying for a moment of cheap, political grandstanding.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Voters look to the Tories as the credit crunch bites

From our UK edition

Another encouraging poll for Team Cameron today. The latest ICM / Sunday Telegraph poll puts the Tories on 43 percent (up 6 from last month); Labour on 32 percent (unchanged); and the Lib Dems on 18 percent (down 3). Below the headline figures, there's some suggestion that the credit crunch is starting to hit people in the pocket. Around 22 percent of voters have had to cut back their personal spending “a lot” over the past year, whilst 37 percent have done so “a little”. The worry is that things will only get worse. Our latest cover story paints a bleak picture for home-owners. And – thanks to Gordon Brown – lower-paid workers will today start paying twice as much tax on their income.

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

A period of family meltdown?

From our UK edition

The attacks against this Government are becoming angrier and more widespread by the day.  Now a senior judge wades into the fray, blasting Labour for not preventing family breakdown.  Here's what he had to say:  "We are experiencing a period of family meltdown whose effects will be as catastrophic as the meltdown of the ice caps ... as big a threat to the future of our society as terrorism, street crime or drugs ...  What is certain is that almost all of society's social ills can be traced directly to the collapse of the family life ... I am not saying every broken family produces dysfunctional children but I am saying that almost every dysfunctional child is the product of a broken family ...

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Who spent what?

From our UK edition

The expenses claims of nineteen MPs – including Blair, Brown and Cameron – have been released today.  Nothing in breach of the rules, but still some cause for eyebrow-raising.  For instance, John Prescott claimed £4,000 in 2003/04 for groceries (would it be cruel to say it showed?)  And Blair had his TV license-fee paid for. Despite the lack of Derek Conway-style revelations, the release is welcome – if only because it’s one in the eye for Michael Martin.  But – for good or ill – things still aren’t as transparent as they could be.  Martin continues to fight against the release of “receipt-by-receipt” breakdowns; a battle that will be adjudicated in the High Court.

Peter Hoskin

The Great Gordo

From our UK edition

Michael Heath’s illustration for our Brownies posts (so far we’ve covered Inflation and The Lisbon Treaty) deserves to be showcased.

Peter Hoskin

Clegg responds – Part II

From our UK edition

Here are Nick Clegg's answers to the last five questions put forward by CoffeeHousers.  For his first five responses click here. Q: MPs were already a devalued currency with the public following years of labour spin, expense fraud etc. Would you agree that their stock has diminished even further following the refusal of the government, helped by your party's abstention, to give a referendum on the Lisbon constitution? Can you understand why people are put off politicians by this cynical game of MPs putting party before country? – Pete A: People are fed up with politicians – but for a lot of reasons, not just one. That’s why I’ve said it’s time to change politics utterly.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Self-defeating eco-towns

From our UK edition

The Government's released its short-list for 'eco-town' sites.  Reading through it, the first thing that struck me was that they're almost all in the middle of nowhere.   Of course, that's half the point.  New towns have to be built on unspoilt land, so to speak.  But the problem is that the Government's also promoting these new towns as a solution to the affordable housing dilemma.  They're meant to help young, first-time buyers get on the housing ladder.  Yet - without any disrespect intended to to Coltishall, Imerys et al. - young people want to be where the jobs are.  That's why there's so much internal migration to hubs such as London, Birmingham and Manchester.

Peter Hoskin

Taxing times for Brown

From our UK edition

As James said earlier, things aren't looking great for Gordon.  And now - as Ben Brogan points out - our Prime Minister's got a revolt on his hands.  What makes this one particularly damaging is that it's over matters economic.  Says Brogan: "Bad news for Gordon. At last count 26 of his MPs have signed an EDM calling on Alistair Darling to review the scrapping of the 10p rate of tax ... When Mr Brown was Chancellor the idea of a revolt by Labour MPs on tax was nigh unthinkable. Times have changed.

Peter Hoskin

Clegg responds – Part I

From our UK edition

Here are Nick Clegg’s answers to the first 5 questions put forward by CoffeeHousers:   Q: If the Lib Dems hold the balance of power in 2010, which Cabinet portfolios are you after, and who would fill them? – Peter   A: That’s just not something I think about.  The Liberal Democrats are an independent party, focused on providing a programme for government across the portfolio areas.  Speculating about coalitions is not a game that I am interested in playing.   Q: You have made rather anti-government spending noises recently. Is there a figure for spending as a %age of GDP which you would regard as roughly about right – 35/40/45/50%?