Peter Hoskin

If you feel like smashing your computer monitor in frustration, then head over to this Sky News story. The headline: “Brown: we’re getting economy right”. Yes, that’s the outrageous claim our Prime Minister made in an interview earlier today, adding that: “I am making the right long term decisions for our country”.   It’s almost getting dull to point out how far out of touch our Prime Minister is with reality. Instead, I’ll point you to Fraser’s post of a few days ago, for the low-down on just how horrendous Brown’s previous “long-term decisions” have been.

Yet more talk of Brown's potential demise.  This time in today's Standard - a story (not online) about how backbenchers are giving the Prime Minster until May 2009 to "improve or stand down" (quite how they'd force this through is another question...).  Here's what a "former minister" had to tell the paper: "I do not believe Gordon would want to lead the party to a severe defeat if it could be avoided by the positive momentum that a change of leader could provide ....  If the party's position has not improved by May next year; it will probably mean it is irreparable without a fresh face in charge."  It's difficult to know how much to make of it all.

Can things get any worse for Gordon Brown? With the news this morning that a minister is threatening to quit, our Dear Leader needs something to change. And quick. On that front, he seems to be pinning his hopes on a cabinet reshuffle this summer. According to the Telegraph, those due a promotion include Jim Murphy, Liam Byrne and – surprise, surprise – Ed Miliband. Whilst Hilary Benn, Des Browne and Hazel Blears can expect to be flung from the battlements. This isn't so much a reshuffle, then, as a dilution. Whilst Murphy et al. may be capable in their own right, their youthful presence will hardly reassure voters in these tough economic times.

So – in an effort to save taxpayers' money – David Miliband is to permanently vacate his lavish official residence.  Over at Three Line Whip, Con Coughlin is disappointed by the move, thinking it will undermine the stature of the Foreign Secretary – “Foreign visitors expect to be received in some style when they come to London”. David Hughes counters by pointing-out that “there’s hardly a dearth of venues for official receptions and dinners”.   I’m with Hughes. Foreign visitors may have their expectations, but British taxpayers expect something too – namely, that their cash isn’t used to fund the gravy-train.

As Centre Right reveal, today’s Evening Standard records a cut poll lead for Boris. Their latest YouGov poll has Our Man on 45 percent (down 4 on the last poll); Livingstone on 39 percent (up 3); and Paddick on 12 percent (up 2). Things look rosier when second preferences are allocated – Boris lands 54 percent of the vote, compared to Livingstone’s 46 percent.   The slimmer advantage is testament not only to Livingstone’s resilience, but also to a week in which Boris has seemed oddly deflated. His performance in last week’s Newsnight debate was less-than-stellar, and A.A. Gill’s article in the Sunday Times described the Tory candidate as unusually “glum and uninspiring”.

George Osborne couldn't have hoped for a better background to his speech at Policy Exchange today than this FT poll. It finds that some 68 percent of UK voters don't have any confidence in the Government's ability to deal with recent economic difficulties. The FT also polled voters from other leading economies – such as France, Germany and the US – but the UK topped the pessimism chart. Those chickens that are coming home to roost – they're flocks of untold size. Brown's got to be worried.

Frank Field’s piece for the latest issue of the magazine is well-worth reading, and fecund ground for a weekend debate.    As he sees it, Brown and Cameron have to concentrate on the “post-Thatcher question” of “How can individual freedom be extended while at the same time protecting that degree of public provision which voters believe necessary for a civilised life?”    Cameron’s ahead on this issue, at the moment. But can the Government bounce back? The article suggests they can, but only by enshrining a “wider tax contract giving individual ownership and control over state programmes”.

Recently, the Tories haven't quite been giving us the full picture on Europe.  Sure, they've opposed the Lisbon Treaty, and have been pushing for a referendum on it.  But they've also been tight-lipped about what a Cameron Government would do should the Treaty be ratified.  Would they pull out of it?  Would they hold a retrospective referendum? etc. etc.   As Three Line Whip points out, the Tory MP David Heathcoat Amory may have made things a little clearer.  Here's what he told The House Magazine: "The next Conservative government will renegotiate our relationship with Europe and finally the people will have a vote on this.