Peter Hoskin

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

The bleak economic horizon spells trouble for Brown

From our UK edition

As I wrote the other day, the British public is increasingly blaming the Prime Minister for the country's economic problems. He's no longer regarded as a steady hand on the tiller, but – instead – as a fiscal menace. A key aspect of Brown's latest relaunch, then, is to reverse this opinion; to convince people that he'll get them through the difficult times. It's a message he concentrated on in his various interviews this morning. Will it work? The problem for Brown is that circumstances are going against him. Mervyn King's just stepped out to say: “Don't expect interest rates cuts for the next two years; inflation's going to be much worse than we thought”. This bleak prediction is splashed across the covers of today's papers.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

PMQs video

From our UK edition

Thanks to the indispensable Politics Home, here's footage of the Brown vs Cameron exchange in PMQs today.  Expect Fraser's write-up shortly.

Peter Hoskin

Are people seeing through Darling’s new clothes?

From our UK edition

The biggest worry surrounding Darling's 10p tax con is that people will fall for it; that it will be the vote-winner Brown so clearly wants it to be.  There were immediate signs yesterday that this might be the case.  I highlighted a Political Betting graph which showed that - in the betting markets, at least - Labour's hopes of winning in Crewe and Nantwich had been boosted by Darling's move.  However (and thanks to CoffeeHouser 'Ian C' for pointing this out), a new graph over at Political Betting reveals that the markets have settled right back to where they were before Darling's statement.  The con-trick may not have worked, after all.

Peter Hoskin

Morning, Darling

From our UK edition

There's plenty of comment rattling around this morning on Darling's 10p tax compensation. The Guardian calls it “crude, simple and costly”, whilst the Mirror strains to remind us, “The bottom line is that 22 million low and middle-income earners will be £120 better off this year.” The best take, though, is Peter Riddell's in the Times. Here's his “bottom line”: “So the Treasury will have to raise a very large amount next year. This means either higher taxes or lower spending since higher borrowing cannot be continued. The public finances are not in a healthy state after the sharp rise in public spending since 2000. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that an £8 billion adjustment will have to be made at some stage.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Darling boosts Labour’s Crewe hopes

From our UK edition

Political Betting have put together a neat graph, showing the effect that Alistair Darling's 10p compensation package has had on Labour chances in Crewe and Nantwich.  As far as the betting markets are concerned, the move has boosted Labour hopes.  Which is exactly what Brown & Darling wanted in the first place...

Peter Hoskin

Darling announces 10p tax compensation

From our UK edition

Alistair Darling's just delivered a statment to the Commons, outlining measures to help those hit by the abolition of the 10p tax band.  In short: the personal tax allowance will be increased by £600 to £6,035, and this will be paid for by increased borrowing.  This is, says Darling, "the simplest and most effective" course of action. Of course, it's the economics of a mad-house - announcing a tax policy in one Budget, only to run up more debt nullifying its effects just one year later.  But as Nick Robinson points out, Darling's move could be the first bit of good news that Labour have had in weeks.  After all, it should draw a line under the 10p tax row, and ease the pressure on low-income earners.

Peter Hoskin

Women and politics poll

From our UK edition

I'd recommend you take a look at Grazia magazine's new poll - 'Women and politics survey 2008'.  As you'd expect - with a title like that - all the respondents are women, and they come out broadly in favour of Cameron & Co.  For instance, 33 percent would vote Tory if there was a general election tomorrow, compared to only 14 percent for Labour.  And 26 percent think David Cameron will keep his promises, compared to 16 percent for Brown.  And that's before we get to which politician would 'deliver the best performance in bed'... There is one grain of comfort, though, for Brown.  He beats Cameron on the question of "Which party leader would you call in a crisis?" (by 49 percent to 42 percent).

Peter Hoskin

Gaffe Central

From our UK edition

Is anything going right for this Government at the moment?  The latest gaffe: Caroline Flint revealing the front page of an internal Cabinet memo on housing to waiting photographers.  They dutifully snapped an image, and now we know the Government thinks house prices will drop by around 10 percent this year.  As the Sun quite rightly points out, this could trigger a price crash all by itself.

Peter Hoskin

A bleak outlook

From our UK edition

Gloomy reading on the cover of the FT this morning – apparently, our economy's heading ever more swiftly to stagnation and slowdown. New data reveals that confidence in the housing market has hit “rock bottom”; retail spending is dropping; and inflation is sky-rocketing. A dangerous, fiscal cocktail, indeed. Of course, it's far from good news for the Prime Minister. On a straightforward level, it makes his job more difficult – it's so much easier to reign when the economy's booming – but it may also make it untenable. As Fraser noted the other day – and as Peter Riddell writes in today's Times – people are turning against Brown over the economy at an astonishing pace.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Labour supporters think Brown should go

From our UK edition

If you want an idea of the pessimism and despair among Labour supporters at the moment,  do check out this running LabourHome poll.  Its headline finding, so far?  That some 49 percent of respondents think Brown should be sacked, as opposed to 34 percent who think he should stay on.  49 percent also believe that the 42-day detention plan should be dropped, and only 10 percent think the HQ team should remain as it is.  Hardly a grassroots endorsement, then, for our beleaguered Prime Minister.

Peter Hoskin

Offensive defence

From our UK edition

And so – predictably – Ed Balls defends Brown against the allegations made by Frank Field yesterday.  Or, rather, he sticks the boot into Field, hoping that amounts to the same thing.  Here’s what he had to say: “I think people took [Field's] views [about the 10p tax row] at face value. They thought that to negotiate with him was the right thing to do... ...I think people could look at what he was saying a few weeks ago and believe at that time that his intentions were honourable... ...As for what he said this morning I think I leave you to draw your own conclusions from that... We have all known Frank for many years, and I think he used to work on his own when he was in opposition. He used to work on his own on the backbenches.

Peter Hoskin

Another bad start to the week for Brown

From our UK edition

It's not a great start to the week for Gordon Brown, as he prepares for relaunch no.29. After the pummelling he received from John Prescott, Cherie Blair and Stephen Byers over the weekend, more (former) Blairites have entered the fray. Foremost among them is Lord Levy, who's conducted a series of interviews to hawk his new book. Here's what he had to tell the Telegraph, when asked whether Brown should resign: “You don't really need to ask me that question ... you need to look at the polls and see what the public believes and feels. I am actually stunned at what the polls are showing. That's a question that Gordon really needs to reflect on, his Cabinet need to reflect on and the Labour Party hierarchy and members of the Commons need to reflect on.

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

An unassuming genius

From our UK edition

Pete Hoskin on the Hollywood actor James Stewart, who was born 100 years ago The great director and critic François Truffaut once labelled James Stewart as one of those rare actors who could be ‘moving and amusing within the same scene’. Quite so. On the one hand, Stewart — angular, lanky, and awkward in action and speech — was made for comedy. That meandering drawl alone is enough to get punters giggling in their seats, ‘W...w...w...well, golly.’ But on the other, he was capable of such sincerity of expression that none of his physical quirks matters. Make no mistake, he’s a truly great actor. And perhaps the only one who could make us believe in giant invisible rabbits. Why bring this up now?

Friday

Peter Hoskin

America looks to Cameron

From our UK edition

You know an Opposition leader’s doing well when he makes waves across the pond. And – if an important article in today’s New York Times is anything to go by – Cameron’s succeeding on exactly that front. It’s titled ‘The Conservative Revival’, and outlines what the GOP can learn from Project Cameron. Here’s a hefty assortment of the key points, but I’d suggest you read the whole thing: "Today, British conservatives are on the way up, while American conservatives are on the way down…   …The flow of ideas has changed direction. It used to be that American conservatives shaped British political thinking. Now the influence is going the other way.

Peter Hoskin

Will Ken work with Boris?

From our UK edition

Ken discusses the lessons of May 1 in an article for the Guardian today. There's not much there, beyond talk about how he performed better than Labour did nationally, and about how he had the best policies for London. In which case, the real point of interest may be at the end of the article. Will Ken be working with Boris, as some have predicted? Don't count on it: “Amid the worst electoral defeat for 40 years, even Labour's best electoral performance in the country could not stop London entering into a period of Tory decline. But as that decline proceeds, a new progressive alliance will be forged, which will go on to regain its position and restore London as the greatest capital city in the world.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

A 26 point lead for the Tories

From our UK edition

The Sun have just released the results of a YouGov poll, and it gives the Tories an astonishing 26 point lead over Labour.  The numbers in full: Tories, 49 percent; Labour, 23 percent; Lib Dems, 17 percent.  That's Labour's worst poll showing since records began in the 1930s. There's not really much to add - the numbers speak for themselves. Suffice to say that this will pile even more pressure on our beleaguered Prime Minister.

Peter Hoskin

The charm offensive continues

From our UK edition

Oh dear. Another unnerving TV-appearance from Gordon Brown today – this time on ‘This Morning’ with Fern Britton (you can watch it here). As Britton says, it’s “an opportunity for [Brown] to be a human being”…   The ITV morning chat-show may not be known for rigorous political interviewing, but Britton is surprisingly tenacious. When Brown’s talking about “political instability in the Middle East” being behind rising fuel prices, she interjects: “Yes, but how much tax do you put on the fuel?” Brown’s taken aback, and mumbles, “if you take the £1.10 [a litre cost of petrol], then [fuel duty’s] a high part of it.”  Doesn’t he know the actual figure?