PMQs footage
From our UK edition
Courtesy of Politics Home, here's the main exchange between Cameron and Brown in PMQs. Expect the Coffee House take on things shortly.
Peter Hoskin
Wednesday
A prisoner of his own tax con
From our UK edition
Oh dear. It looks as though Alistair Darling's 10p tax con is going to come back to haunt him – and in a major way. As the IFS points out this morning, the fact that he's only increased personal tax allowances for a year – a short-term fix to compensate for the abolition of the 10p tax rate – means that he's “not only created millions of winners this year: he has created millions of potential losers next year”. That's some 18 million potential losers next year – hardly the electorate that the Government wants, with a general election on the horizon. So, is there any way the Treasury can avoid this? Well, yes. It could keep the tax breaks in place.
Tuesday
Do Labour ministers want to lose the by-election?
From our UK edition
We all know that there are plenty of knives out for Gordon Brown in the Labour Party. But a detail in this post by Benedict Brogan is still pretty astonishing. He writes of a Labour minister who said he'd like the party to be defeated in Crewe and Nantwich by a Tory landslide, so they can "force the bastard out". Unfortunately, Brogan's "Tory informant" didn't reveal who that minister was. Any guesses?
Are the Tories dead certs in Crewe and Nantwich?
From our UK edition
Adam Boulton & Co. bring us news that Ladbrokes have closed their books on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, because the Tories are "dead cert winners". Of course, this chimes with all the polls we've been reading recently, as well as with the Tory euphoria around Westminster. But are things really that certain? Tories on the ground in Crewe don't think so - one campaign leader there told us there could be "only a few hundred votes in it either way". Watch this space.
Will Labour’s expectation management backfire (again)
From our UK edition
As James says, if Labour rack up a double-digit defeat in Crewe and Nantwich, then things might start to look even nastier for Gordon Brown – to the point that he may face a leadership challenge or two. I’m sure Labour will be aware of that, but they’re certainly not saying it. Sam Coates points out over at Red Box that a double-digit defeat is well within the boundaries of what the party is spinning as a “reasonable result”. It’s clearly a spot of expectation management – take things to their most pessimistic extreme, and then shrug off a heavy defeat as a “good thing”. Problem is, Labour haven’t been too good at managing expectations recently.
The Speaker relents
From our UK edition
When the High Court turned down the Michael Martin-led attempt to block the disclosure of MPs expenses, the worry was that the Speaker would launch an appeal. Well - by way of an update - Martin & Co. last night decided not to fight the original ruling. The Speaker's comported himself so badly throughout all of this, that this latest move's a welcome surprise. And now we can expect to see full expense details for 14 MPs - including Cameron and Brown - on Friday, with details for all MPs following in October. I wonder whether any are dreading the day.
Is Milburn planning a leadership challenge?
From our UK edition
According to Mike Smithson at Political Betting, Alan Milburn may be planning to challenge Brown for the Labour leadership, in the aftermath of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Says Smithson: "I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this but it comes from somebody I trust who has very close links within the party. Clearly something is going on out there and this weekend would be the ideal time to strike." Could this be true?
Clegg talks tax
From our UK edition
Nick Clegg's giving a speech at Policy Exchange this morning, in which he'll announce his intention to cut taxes for low and middle income earners. In many respects, it's a landmark moment for the Lib Dems (although Clegg's political invisibility will probably negate any positive effects), and it's certainly good for the Tories. When the Lib Dem leader can talk so openly about tax cuts, then you know the New Labour mantra “tax cuts = worse public services” is in its death throes. The new emphasis is on loosening the fiscal squeeze that people face. Clegg's words will be a few more drops in the tidal shift. And will make it so much easier for Cameron to repeat them in future.
Monday
Gordon Brown 2.0
From our UK edition
Here's footage of Gordon Brown's "confident, relaxed and witty" speech at Google Zeitgeist earlier today. What do CoffeeHousers make of it?
Cameron vs waste
From our UK edition
Do take the time to read Cameron's speech today – it may be his most convincing yet. In it, he lays into government waste more forcefully than ever before, and outlines a Tory attack on the “three causes of a bigger state and rising public spending” – the cost of social failure; the cost of unreformed public services; and the cost of bureaucracy. It's the perfect approach, and, suddenly, “sharing the proceeds of growth” makes a whole lot more sense. The best aspect of the speech, however, is how it humanises the economy. “We need to start living within our means,” Cameron says. The public finances have been stretched to the limit, so we don't want to increase public spending, taxation and borrowing.
Clegg sides with the Tories
From our UK edition
After a few subtle flirtations, Nick Clegg has finally decided that his Lib Dems will support the Tories in the event of a hung parliament. Apparently, he'd back Tory Budgets, and side with Cameron & Co. in any votes of confidence. It's a set-up which would leave the Tory leader free to accept the post of Prime Minister after the next general election, even if his party doesn't win an outright majority. The timing of this decision is telling. Many expected Clegg to leave things up in the air, and make his move in the wake of the next general election. But the fact that it's come now suggests he already expects a Tory victory of sorts – a fact which will pile further pressure on Gordon Brown by itself.
Saturday
More anger over the 10p tax con
From our UK edition
Simon Heffer's at his angry best in today's Telegraph, attacking Brown over the recent 10p tax con. Here are the last two paragraphs, but do read the whole thing: "The £2.7 billion loan, at a time when we are grotesquely over-borrowed, is the final sign not merely that this man has no idea about sound economics, but that he is unfit to see the country through hard times. Total public spending is around £617 billion a year. It would not even have constituted what accountants call a rounding error to make a saving of £2.7 billion in a total of that magnitude, yet Mr Brown could not bring himself to sack a few thousand from his overmanned client state, or trim spending elsewhere, like the private sector is being forced to do thanks to his mistakes.
Friday
The 42 day detention rebels make their move
From our UK edition
Things are hotting up over the Government's plan to extend pre-charge detention for terror suspects to 42 days. A group of Labour rebels, headed by Andrew Dismore MP, have tabled an amendment which calls for detention to be kept at 28 days, but a range of new bail measures introduced. The Lib Dems have immediately stepped out to say that - if their own amendment isn't selected by the Speaker - they'll support Dismore's proposals en masse. All of which adds to the feeling that Brown is facing defeat over this - yet another thing that would pile pressure on his premiership. Watch this space.
More bad news for Brown | 16 May 2008
From our UK edition
One of the last things Brown will want is a summer of public sector unrest. Problem is, that's exactly what he might be facing. Check out Michael Millar's post over at Trading Floor for the lowdown.
Brown’s poverty fiddle
From our UK edition
Over at the Adam Smith Institute blog, Dr Eamon Butler highlights a very important truth - that severe poverty has worsened under this government. How so, when the Government claims to have lifted 'a million' people out of poverty? Well - as you'd expect - it's all to do with a Bronwie-style, statistical fiddle. The Treasury defines a poor household as one which earns under 60 percent of median income. They've expended a whole lot of effort, time and taxpayers' cash to lift people from just under that line to just over it - success, by this Government's terms. But those far below the line have been left behind.
The right result
From our UK edition
The Michael Martin-led effort to block the disclosure of MPs' expenses has been turned down in the High Court. The right result. Hopefully, Martin will accept it with grace and dignity - although he has until 20th May to appeal against the decision (at a further cost to the public).
The chances of a Brown comeback
From our UK edition
Some good reading material in today's Economist. Bagehot charts the recent attacks and apologies that have coursed through Labour, concentrating on the case of Frank Field. Here's the concluding paragraph: “But for Labour to revive, and maybe for Mr Brown to survive, it will take more than a semblance of unity and the odd crowd-pleaser. It will (among other things) require the prime minister to change: his style, his demeanour, the way he treats his ministers—the very things Mr Field apologised for criticising. In fact, beneath the hostility, and perhaps partly explaining it, the two men are oddly similar. Both are hard-working, religious ascetics who care about the poor. Both are (or were) more respected than liked.
Thursday
Cameron on top form
From our UK edition
A number of CoffeeHousers asked that we put up video of Cameron's superlative response to Brown's Not The Queen's Speech yesterday.
Greed or need?
From our UK edition
Just to flag up another article from the latest issue for CoffeeHousers. This one's by Rod Liddle, and he takes issue with the recent deluge of memoirs from Blairite figures. As he puts it: "There is something simultaneously vile and pitiable in the procession of these famous names into their agents’ offices, determined to tell everybody that they were not remotely a party to the bad things that went on, that history should judge them much more kindly because they were on the side of the angels. And then, upon being exhorted with the lure of a few extra thousand quid, cheerfully sticking the boot into their former colleagues, some of whom, for obvious reasons, have a certain limited ability to defend themselves.
Purnell: the next Labour leader?
From our UK edition
Just a follow-up to Fraser's post of yesterday. His article on why James Purnell could be the man to rescue Labour from their current scrape is now on the website. You can access it here. And remember to have your say in the comments section - are there any CoffeeHousers who rate the artfully-sideburned one?!