Doctor, doctor
From our UK edition
As Daniel Finkelstein points out, Robert Shrimsley's satire of Dr Darling and Dr Osborne is super stuff. Read it over at the FT website, here.
Peter Hoskin
Thursday
Is Cameron going to crack down on public sector pensions?
From our UK edition
Is David Cameron getting bolder and bolder with the public spending savings he's willing to identify? Over at his blog, Ben Brogan highlights the Tory leader's admission that he may move public sector workers away from potentially-lucrative final salary pension schemes and towards the defined contribution schemes that are prevalent in the private sector. Here's the key quote from Cameron: "My vision over time is to move increasingly towards defined contribution rather than final salary schemes [for the public sector]." Now, this is far stronger a statement than he would have been willing to make a few months ago - and a sign, perhaps, of the decreased potency of Labour's "Tory cuts" attack in these belt-tightening times.
Darling’s survived a lot, but could he survive another 10p tax rebellion?
From our UK edition
The New Statesman's Martin Bright writes a more positive account of the Pre-Budget Report than you'll find in most other places. But he does highlight one potential problem with the package: "There is at least one area where Darling remains vulnerable, however, and that is over the policy to abolish the 10p tax rate, which he inherited when his predecessor left for No 10. In the PBR, Darling announced an increase of personal tax allowances by £130 a year to soften the impact on those who lost out. But the real question for the Labour high command should be whether this will be enough. If backbenchers feel renewed pressure from their constituents on this issue, the possibility of a rebellion over the Budget in the spring will re-emerge.
Mumbai crisis: hostage update
From our UK edition
The BBC are reporting that the hostages in Mumbai's Taj Mahal Palace hotel have now been rescued. There are still thought to be hostages in the Oberoi Trident hotel. We can only hope that this situation resolves itself without further loss of innocent life. UPDATE: The BBC are now reporting the situation at the Taj as "uncertain" - although a number of hostages have been freed.
Wednesday
Do Labour MPs have faith in Brown’s response to the crisis?
From our UK edition
The Standard's keen-eyed Paul Waugh has already flagged it up, but it's still worth highlighting Frank Field's assessment of the PBR in his latest blog post. Even coming from Labour's insurrectionist-in-chief, some of the remarks are surprisingly cutting. Take this passage, for instance: "Will the package work? I dearly hope so, but I doubt it. It is not just the size of the injection of demand that troubles me. It is also the means by which that increased demand is being delivered to consumers. At the end of yesterday’s emergency Budget I was left with a flat feeling in that the Chancellor’s presentation hardly enthused backbenchers, let alone consumers.
PMQs footage | 26 November 2008
From our UK edition
Courtesy of Politics Home, here's footage of the party leader exchanges in today's PMQs:.
PMQs live blog | 26 November 2008
From our UK edition
Welcome to Coffee House's live blog of PMQs. After Monday's PBR, you can expect the economy to be the main topic of debate - with Cameron and Clegg trying to highlight the weasels and tax bombshells that Brown has in store for us. Things will kick off at 1200, so join us then. 1203: Here we go. 1204: First question from Sir Peter Tapsell: "Will the PM apologise to the public for wrecking the British economy?" 1205: Important point from Colin Burgon on money lenders targeting young people. 1206: Cameron now. "If the government doesn't have a secret plan to raise VAT why did the Treasury Minister put his signature to it?" Brown talks about raises to VAT during the Tory governments in the 80s and 90s.
Will Labour’s poll gains unravel with the PBR?
From our UK edition
What to make of the YouGov poll in today's Telegraph? It was conducted in the aftermath of Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report statement - on Monday evening and throughout yesterday - and came out with the following headline figures: Conservatives --- 40 percent (down 1) Labour --- 36 percent (no change) Lib Dems --- 14 percent (no change) The question now is whether this means the PBR has actually gone down well; whether it means that the public haven't quite yet digested the Government's measures; or whether the poll's just an outlier. The thing with Brown's Budgets is that they tend to unravel swiftly enough, and this latest certainly looks like following that trend (see the 'VAT bombshell' story in today's papers).
Tuesday
Put your questions to Grant Shapps
From our UK edition
Grant Shapps - the Shadow Minister for Housing, and MP for Welwyn Hatfield - has kindly agreed to a Q&A session with Coffee House. Just post your questions for him in the comments section below. And, on Friday, we'll pick out the best ten and put them to him. He'll get back to us with his answers a few days later.
Is Darling backtracking already?
From our UK edition
One of the most dangerous elements of yesterday's Pre-Budget Report for the Government was Alistair Darling's claim that the economy would start recovering by the third quarter of 2009. It's an optimistic prognosis, and gives the Tories an open goal if things aren't on the up by then. But has Darling already started backtracking on it, to limit the damage? I may be reading too much into this, but here's what he told the Beeb earlier: "I do believe towards the end of next year things will improve." Now - as James Kirkup usefully points out over at Three Line Whip - the Chancellor's claim yesterday was effectively that the recession ends in 219 days, or just over seven months. To my ears, that doesn't quite translate as "towards the end of next year"...
Pre-Budget Report: the morning after
From our UK edition
Flicking through this morning’s papers, it’s even clearer how much of a flop the Pre-Budget Report was. Sure, it has some cheerleaders (cf. Polly Toynbee, Will Hutton and Steve Richards). But the best thing that most of the papers can bring themselves to say about it is that it’s a “gamble” – whilst a few brand it the “The Death of New Labour”. Gushing praise, this is not. The tone of the newspaper coverage reflects how big an opportunity this is for the Tories. Osborne performed superbly yesterday, and the public will now be more receptive to what he has to say.
Monday
This deserves a post of its own
From our UK edition
Click here for footage of George Osborne's reponse to the Pre-Budget Report. Will try to find YouTube footage later.
Will Darling’s gamble pay off?
From our UK edition
A good post by Nick Robinson, outlining the gambles that underpin Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report: "What's more the chancellor's bet depends on other risky gambles. First, that the British economy will recover as early as the second half of next year. Second, that the government can deliver a major clampdown on spending and huge efficiency savings. Thirdly, that the electorate will support a significant rise in taxes targeted at the wealthy but which will hit those on middle incomes too." For me, it's the first of these that represents the biggest - and riskiest - gamble. The Treasury's tax receipt and net borrowing figures always tend to be optimisitic.
Darling leaves a lot of room for the Tories
From our UK edition
Now that's what I call a damp squib. There was very little in today's PBR that wasn't trailed over the weekend, and most of the new things were - of course - tax rises that Number 10 was hardly ever going to trumpet. In fact, for all of the pre-report debate over unfunded tax cuts, Brown and Darling have delivered a Budget which represents the worst of all possible worlds - net tax hikes coupled with massive borrowing. The announced tax increases of around £40 billion were more than double the stimulus package of around £20 billion. Whilst national debt could well be tipped over £1 trillion. Of course, it should normally be little surprise that taxes will be increased later to cover borrowing now.
Pre-Budget Report live blog
From our UK edition
Welcome to Coffee House's live blog of Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report speech. Things will kick off at 15:30 and end at around 16:30. We'll be following it up with plenty of analysis. Stay tuned. 15: 35 Brown is grinning away as the Tories barrack Darling for saying that the Americans admit this all started in America, a distortion of the quote--JGF 15: 40 Darling admits that ‘regulation needs to be made more effective’--JGF 15:42: The volumne level rsies as Darling, incredibly, claims that Britain is 'well-placed' to handle this crisis--JGF 15:43 Excellent to see Tories very noisy, shouting down Darlings more preposterous claims "living within our means," "blame it on America" etc. Keep it up.
CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 24 November – 30 November
From our UK edition
Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers' Wall. For those who haven't come across the Wall before, it's a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local paper, to chat about the latest football results.
Playing politics
From our UK edition
An effective article by Bruce Anderson in today's Independent on how Brown's playing politics with the public finances. Here's a key passage: "[Brown] is happy to risk further damage to the economy as long as he can inflict damage on the Tories. The only recovery which interests him is the recovery in his poll ratings. Today's measures are not economic. They are political. That is why they are based on a wrong diagnosis. In fact, the current ailments are not fiscal; they are monetary. Even before today's increases, government borrowing was likely to break through the £100 bn barrier, so it would be absurd to claim that fiscal policy is too tight.
Sunday
A more encouraging poll result for the Tories
From our UK edition
Opinion polls are varying so much at the moment that it's probably futile to read too much into any one set of figures. After the MORI poll last week, though, today's ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror will please quite a few Tories, and fits back into what UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells calls the "broad sweep" of recent polls. Here are the headline numbers: Conservatives --- 42 percent (down 1 from last month) Labour --- 31 percent (up 1) Lib Dem --- 19 percent (up 1) As I wrote last week, it will be interesting to see how the poll numbers settle in the aftermath of the PBR.
How Brown might spin himself as our Value Added Saviour
From our UK edition
As James indicated earlier, the problem for Brown is that his VAT cut just won't get noticed (and that the eventual rise in VAT - to 22.5 percent? - will be). That's why you can expect the rejuvenated Labour spin operation to work overtime trying to make it look like the measure's curing all our economic ills. How might they go about it? I wouldn't be surprised to see a near repeat of Brown's "working to lower oil prices" message from earlier this year. Then, he chatted with some Saudi princes, made a big show of it, and - hey presto! - oil prices started to fall dramatically. Of course, the fall was nothing to do with Brown. Oil prices were starting to drop anyway, because of reduced demand for oil during a recession.
Saturday
What dangers lie in wait?
From our UK edition
John Redwood writes a punchy blog post on Alistair Darling's inconsistent message to the banks on lending. Well worth reading the whole thing, but here's the key paragraph: "As someone who does want the banks to help small businesses as much as possible, I understand they can only do so on a big enough scale if the government is more successful in offering the prospect of recovery from recession. The government faces a dilemma. If it does not start to lift us out of recession, lending too much to people and companies who cannot repay just weakens the banks more rather than saving the businesses we want to save. Weak banks and weak small businesses both need the same thing - more success from the economic policy.