Penworthy

The all-important ground conditions at Glorious Goodwood have varied from 'good to soft' to 'heavy’ this week and that trend could continue over the next two days with a mixed forecast. Throw in the complications of the draw and the unique undulating track and there are plenty of challenges out there for punters. Starting with today, there are two competitive handicaps that always grab my attention: the Coral Goodwood Handicap (1.50 p.m.) over a marathon trip of more than two and a half miles and the Coral Golden Mile (3 p.m.). Over the last decade, horses drawn in single figures have won nine of the last ten runnings of the Golden Mile and horses drawn one to five have the best record of all.

The Grade 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, first run at Ascot in 1951, has lost some of its lustre in recent years. Many of best middle-distance horses have swerved the race and it has often been left with small fields of only modest quality. Yet tomorrow’s race (Ascot, 3.40 p.m.) is undoubtedly a contest to savour. It has been dubbed a 'race for the ages' with some of the best three-year-old colts, the so-called 'Classic generation', taking on their elders for the first time. The Betfred Derby winner Auguste Rodin and the runner-up King of Steel are at the head of the market and a lot of experts feel that, with the weight for age concession, three-year-olds are the horses to back at this time of year.

The delights of Glorious Goodwood are on the horizon and now is a good time to have a bet on a consistent, well-handicapped horse with rock solid course and distance form and who is not ground dependent. Furthermore, he is on offer at a super-generous 33-1 with most bookmakers. REVICH is a credit to the training skills of his Newmarket handler Richard Spencer. The seven-year-old gelding, owned by the Middleham Park syndicate, recently took his career earnings to more than £150,000 when he came fourth last time out at Sandown despite being denied a clear run. However, it is Revich’s run in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last season that makes me want to back him for the same race this year – two weeks today on Friday, 4 August.

The two big handicaps tomorrow are the bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and the John Smith’s Cup at York. Both are early closing races in which the weights were framed by the official handicapper several weeks ago. This means several horses in both races are 'well in', in that if the handicapper was in a position to evaluate their most recent runs – after he set the weights – they would be carrying several pounds more tomorrow. However, the most difficult issue to factor into which horses to tip today is undoubtedly the weather: both Newmarket and York are forecast to have large amounts of rain which could make the ground at both tracks 'soft' by tomorrow afternoon.

Trainer Jamie Osborne has targeted OUZO at most of the big one-mile handicaps since taking over the training of the horse at the beginning of last season from Richard Hannon. To date, the gelding is zero wins from 11 runs for Osborne but that statistic does not tell the full story. Ouzo has run some splendid races in defeat, most of them with the trainer’s daughter Saffie in the saddle, and his consistency means he has failed to drop far down the handicap. The gelding, now seven, certainly deserves a change of luck and I am hoping that he gets one as soon as tomorrow (Sandown, 2.25 p.m.) when he contests the Coral Challenge handicap, once again over a mile and once again the talented Saffie Osborne gets the ride.

When I put up Zoffee at 20-1 for the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate six weeks ago, I said that I was hoping he would swerve the big staying handicaps at Royal Ascot. I had suspected trainer Hugo Palmer wanted to keep his horse fresh for tomorrow’s target which has a first prize of more than £80,000. Sadly, the temptation to dress up in top hat and tails was too hard to resist for his owners and the seven-year-old gelding lined up in the Ascot Stakes, running well despite a poor passage and an average ride to be sixth behind Ahorsewithnoname. That race over a marathon trip was only ten days ago but Zoffee will nevertheless take his chances tomorrow (Newcastle 2.05 p.m.) at far less than half the odds compared to when I tipped him.

If there is a so-called ‘group horse masquerading as a handicapper’ in the 28-strong Wokingham field (tomorrow, 5pm), then it is almost certainly the favourite, Orazio. Charlie Hills’ four-year-old grey colt has won his last two handicaps comfortably and this race has been the plan for some time.  However, my strong each way fancy for the race is an experienced handicapper in the form of APOLLO ONE. The Newmarket-trained five-year-old gelding ran in this race last year when he was only eighth of the 26 runners but I am confident he can do better this time around off a similar rating. Apollo One comes into the race is much better form that he was last year, after a fine run when second in a competitive sprint handicap at Epsom.

Frankie Dettori’s final Royal Ascot as a jockey saw more lows than highs over the first couple of days of the meeting. He rode just the one winner but also picked up a nine-day suspension for careless riding on the first day. I am hoping the charismatic Italian enjoys a better day on Friday, particularly when he partners LEZOO in the Commonwealth Cup (tomorrow 3.05pm). Lezoo won three of her four races as a two-year before tackling the 1000 Guineas over a mile first time out this season at Newmarket. On soft ground, she failed to make any impression that day when only eighth. However, I think she will be a different proposition back in trip over 6 furlongs and on fast ground tomorrow.

Coltrane and Eldar Eldarov are vying for favouritism in the Ascot Gold Cup (tomorrow, 4.20pm), the highlight of day three of the royal meeting. They both have strong form and big chances of winning the Group 1 contest over two miles and a half. However, there is little value left in their prices of little more than 3-1 for the pair and, as usual, I would rather go in search of a horse at bigger odds. That horse is YIBIR who, with an official mark of 117, is not far off the highest rated stayers in the race. The big question mark over Charlie Appleby’s five-year-old gelding is whether he will stay the marathon trip as all his best form is over a mile and a half, that’s a full mile shorter than he will race over tomorrow.

The Royal Hunt Cup (tomorrow 5pm) is just the sort of big-field handicap that I relish. At first glance, finding the winner seems impossible with no less 30 runners charging down Ascot’s straight track and the draw having a big effect on the result. Perotto is a worthy favourite: he has proven form at the course and he is well handicapped on his best form. He has probably got a good draw in stall 30 but that’s by no means guaranteed. However, a couple of big-name tipsters have championed his chances over the past week and so odds of 7-1 or less make little appeal. David O’Meara’s Blue for You and Daniel and Claire Kubler’s Astro King are others to consider but, once again, they are close to the top of the market.

Make no mistake, Ed Bethell is a young man going places in the racing world. He is talented trainer, charming with it and he knows how to place his horses to great advantage. Since taking over the trainer’s licence from his father James at the start of 2021, Bethell has nearly doubled the number of horses in the yard to around 60. This season alone, he has a superb record of 24 winners from just 84 runners for a success strike rate of 29 per cent. Horses such as the improving sprinter Regional, who has won both his races this season, are testament to Bethell’s skills. It’s only a matter of time before one of the handler’s best horses lands a huge prize and I hope that might be as soon as tomorrow when CHILLINGHAM becomes Bethell’s very first Royal Ascot runner.

Fresh from plundering many of the major jumping prizes last season, Irish trainer Willie Mullins will head to Royal Ascot next week with plenty of chances in the big staying races on the flat. Predictably, the bookmakers are taking no chances and his most fancied horses for the two Tuesday staying handicaps are short-priced favourites: Bring On The Night for the Ascot Stakes and Vauban for the Copper Horse Handicap. Both horses are around 2-1 for their respective targets. Mullins could easily land a double but both horses look poor value in such competitive races. In the latter contest, I fancy a couple of horses who may not make the 'cut' for the 16-runner handicap over 1 miles 6 furlongs so I will keep my powder dry for now in that race.

You don’t need to be a genius to know that if you are training for HM The King and HM The Queen, then it would be a shrewd career move to land a Royal Ascot winner for them later this month. This is, of course, the first time that the King and Queen will be having runners at the famous meeting under their new titles. Their trainers know that if they can engineer a winner for the royal duo at Ascot’s five-day event, it will generate hugely positive headlines all over the news and sports pages. I think the King and Queen have at least two first-rate chances of a winner at the meeting and I am backing one of those horses now ante-post and keeping a watching brief on the other one. The one to back is SAGA, who has to be one of the unluckiest horses in training.

It is usually the Grand National at Aintree that throws up a delightful human interest story for the media to relish. Think Devon Loch throwing away the race when poised to win for the Queen Mother in 1956, Foinavon’s 100-1 victory in 1967, Red Rum winning his third National in 1977 and former crock Aldaniti and cancer-suffering jockey Bob Champion’s triumph in 1981. I could go on and on…but I won’t. Tomorrow I am hoping that it is the turn of the Betfred Derby (Epsom 1.30 p.m.) to produce a story to tug at the heartstrings when two horses, which I believe represent the best bets in the race, would each lead to a first-rate news story if they won.

James Tate is an accomplished young trainer who has won several top races in his time but landing a Group 1 contest is still missing from his CV. That will undoubtedly change at some point and the horse currently in his care most likely to achieve it for him is ROYAL ACCLAIM. Aged four, this likeable filly has only had five races in her career, which means there is still plenty of scope for improvement – particularly as the Newmarket handler has been patient with her to date. Tomorrow (Haydock 3.30 p.m.) Royal Acclaim will line up for the competitive Group 2 Betfred Temple Stakes. I am usually loath to tip horses which have not run this season but I will make an exception for this filly.

All-weather racing is usually not for me: it too often serves up poor quality fare featuring either horses past their prime or horses who are simply never going to have a prime worth mentioning. However, the one all-weather race that I do study in depth each year is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate and that is because, with prize money of more than £80,000 for the winner, it attracts entries from some of the best staying handicappers. As a result of scrutinising the entries that came out this week, I am having my first antepost bet of the flat season on a horse I am convinced is overpriced in in the race.

Lambourn trainer Dominic Ffrench Davis has started the Flat season in fine form with nine winners from just 37 runners for a winning per cent to races of 24 per cent. This year he has undoubtedly benefitted from an influx of more than 20 horses from high-spending owners, Amo Racing, but he is a trainer I have always liked because he gets the best out of his horses. I hope he lands his biggest pot of the season to date later today when he runs CALL MY BLUFF in the Tote Chester Cup (3.15pm). This six-year-old gelding has been with Ffrench Davis since he was a two-year-old winning four of his 14 races on turf and creeping up the ratings as a result. Last season Call My Bluff ran some good races but without winning any of his six contests.

Master trainer Aidan O’Brien provides a quandary for punters by sending over two very different horses from Ireland to contest tomorrow’s Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes. Little Big Bear is officially the highest rated horse in the race (Newmarket 4.40 p.m.) after four impressive wins last season but he has never raced over further than six and a half furlongs. He may well not stay the one-mile distance of tomorrow’s contest over Newmarket’s demanding straight course. Auguste Rodin, on the other hand, is already tried and tested over a mile with two of his three wins last season coming over that trip, one on soft ground and the other on heavy. However, all the signs are that he will be better suited by a longer trip and he is already being talked about as the stable’s likely No.

The bet365 Gold Cup, that’s the former Whitbread Gold Cup, remains one of my favourite big race handicaps of the jumps season and I am pleased to say that I have a good tipping record in the race. A quick, slick jumper who stays well is required as the fences come thick and fast on this right-handed track with an uphill finish. I have already put up one horse in the race and that is Annsam each way at 16-1. I think Evan Williams’ talented gelding will be perfectly suited to this track given his tendency to jump right at several fences and I will be very disappointed if he does not run a big race. The 16-1 has long gone but the 10-1, six places, is still more than fair. There is no doubt that Kitty’s Light is the best handicapped horse in the race (Sandown, tomorrow 2.

Scottish trainer Lucinda Russell has her string in such fine form that she might win a race at Ayr this weekend if she entered the stable cat. From her five runners at Aintree last weekend, she ended up with two wins, two seconds and a sixth – quite an achievement. Pride of place went, of course, to Corach Rambler who landed the Randox Grand National. No tipster rightly gets many plaudits for putting up the favourite in a big race but I am pleased to say that loyal Spectator Life readers were put on him before Christmas – three and a half months before the race – at 20-1.