Michael Simmons

Britain is slowly drowning in debt. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in the financial year to July the state had to borrow £60 billion to tread water. That’s £6.7 billion more than by July last year and the third highest borrowing total for this period of the year since records began 32 years ago. Statisticians also managed to find almost another billion pounds in debt payments that now need to be added to the previous month's figures.  When the Bank cut interest rates, something alarming happened in the borrowing markets There was better news, though, when looking at the month of July alone, with borrowing coming in at £1.1 billion, which was £2.3 billion less than the same month last year and the lowest July figure for three years.

Inflation is up again. CPI climbed to 3.8 per cent last month – up from 3.6 per cent in July, now well above the 2 per cent target that the Bank of England no longer seems all that bothered about missing. It throws fresh doubt on the wisdom of the Bank’s decision to cut rates just a fortnight ago, with prices now climbing to a 19-month high. This morning’s inflation figures, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that much of the increase in prices was driven by a large jump in plane tickets and petrol. Economists had expected inflation to tick up – but not by this much. Food inflation has increased for the fourth month in a row. It is now at its highest level in more than a year at 4.9 per cent.

Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth raises questions for the Bank of England. Second quarter growth came in at 0.3 per cent (0.2 per cent per Brit) propped up by a strong 0.7 per cent in June alone. The rest of the national accounts however, paint a worrying picture when it comes to inflation.The GDP deflator – which is a measure of the overall level of prices in the whole economy – came in at 4.1 per cent year-on-year growth. That’s down slightly from the last reading but still more than double the Bank’s 2 per cent target. Nominal domestic demand was growing too, at more than 5 per cent – providing stronger growth figures but pouring fuel on the inflationary fire.

Britain’s is growing, albeit sluggishly. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the economy grew by just 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of the year – a sharp slowdown from the first three months, when growth was 0.7 per cent. ‘The economy was weak across April and May,’ the ONS said, blaming consumers and businesses racing to beat tariffs and stamp duty by bringing activity forward. There was, however, a stronger recovery in June, with the economy expanding by 0.4 per cent. Between April and June as a whole, services drove most of the growth, with particular strength in computer programming, healthcare and vehicle leasing. Construction also expanded, while production contracted. On a per capita basis, growth was a meagre 0.2 per cent.

Stockholm, Sweden The United States and China have concluded two days of trade negotiations in Stockholm without reaching an agreement to extend the truce in their ongoing trade war. Shortly after the talks ended, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the American delegation, told reporters that any decision to extend the current 12 August deadline – at which point tariffs would revert to 34 per cent – rests solely with President Trump. A meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping was not on the agenda. The Chinese delegation said both sides had agreed to ‘push’ for such an extension. Bessent, along with Trump’s trade adviser Jamieson Greer, told me that three key issues continue to prevent serious progress. The first is procedural.

Britain is continuing to chuck billions onto our mounting pile of debt. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that last month the state had to borrow just under £21 billion. That was £6.6 billion more than in June last year and the second-highest June borrowing total since records began 32 years ago. The ONS confirmed the surge in borrowing was a continuation of the fiscal doom loop this country now finds itself in. ‘The rising costs of providing public services and a jump in the debt interest we have to pay on inflation-linked gilts outweighed increased revenue brought in from tax hikes. Interest due on our debt hit £16.4 billion in June, which was £8.

Deep fried prawn balls, chicken chow mein, crispy shredded beef and a Ponzi scheme could be about to win the Chancellor a decent chunk of her headroom back. If Reeves does press ‘sell’, she will be accused of ‘pulling a Gordon Brown’ As Rachel Reeves starts sketching out her autumn Budget, most of the focus has been on the tax hikes she’ll need if she’s serious about sticking to the ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules she recommitted to just last week. Economists reckon the wafer-thin £9.9 billion margin she left herself at the Spring Statement has already been wiped out and that she’s now staring down a black hole of over £20 billion.