Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor. Contact him here.
28 min listen
Entrepreneur and investor Luke Johnson joins Michael Simmons to discuss what is going wrong for Britain's business. From soaring taxes and the Employment Rights Bill to net-zero regulation, planning failures and the rise in economic inactivity, Johnson argues the UK is becoming hostile to entrepreneurs — and warns that many are already leaving for good.
21 min listen
Chris Curtis and Maxwell Marlow may have different political ideologies, but they agree on one key diagnosis: Britain is broken. Their solution can be found on baseball caps and bucket hats across social media and SW1: ‘Build Baby Build’. Less than a week before the Budget, Chris – MP for Milton Keynes and chair of the Labour Growth Group – and Maxwell – policy fellow of the Yimby Initiative, alongside his day job at the Adam Smith Institute – join our economics editor Michael Simmons to talk about the pro-growth measures they champion to radically change Britain. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.
15 min listen
Yesterday we had the publication of the second module of the Covid Inquiry on the decision-making at the heart of government. It confirmed a toxic and disorganised culture at the heart of No. 10 and the headline is that the government acted ‘too little, too late’, costing as many as 23,000 lives in England. That figure is already disputed, not least by our economics editor Michael Simmons who argues on the podcast that the inquiry is a ‘disgrace’ and demonstrates a lack of domain knowledge about the limitations of modelling. Where else does the inquiry fall short? What will be the political ramifications in Westminster? James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Isabel Hardman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
It’s hard to think of a more shambolic budget than the one Rachel Reeves will deliver next week. His Majesty’s Treasury has spent the last month pitch-rolling policies in the Financial Times – using the paper as a sort of town crier – then pulling them back as the OBR’s forecasts have wobbled. Directly, the cause for this volatility is the wafer-thin headroom the Chancellor left herself after her first Budget and the Spring Statement. The markets quickly eroded the slack in the face of persistent inflation and a government politically incapable of reining in Britain’s stratospheric spending. Beneath all that is the staggering amounts we’re spending on debt interest.
39 min listen
It’s time to scrap the budget, argues political editor Tim Shipman this week. An annual fiscal event only allows the Chancellor to tinker round the edges, faced with a backdrop of global uncertainty. Endless potential tax rises have been trailed, from taxes on mansions, pensions, savings, gambling, and business partnerships, and nothing appears designed to fix Britain’s structural problems. Does our economics editor Michael Simmons agree? Host Lara Prendergast is joined by co-host – and the Spectator’s features editor – William Moore, alongside associate editor Owen Matthews and economics editor Michael Simmons.
On Monday night, former England manager Gareth Southgate joined MPs and philanthropists for an event in Westminster described as ‘the Oscars of the charity world’. Cabinet ministers Lisa Nandy and Bridget Phillipson joined the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) in handing out prizes to five charities that help those who fall through the cracks. Across the winners, a single theme stood out: the transformative power of a good job. But Britain is running out of those jobs. Vacancies are falling, unemployment has risen to 5 per cent, while a deeper crisis sits beneath both: nine million working age people are economically inactive, including more than four million on out-of-work benefits with ‘no work requirement’.
Another day at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), another apparent data mishap – this time on net migration figures. The agency published revised figures for 2021 to 2024 this morning, which set out a very different picture on who’s been coming in and out of the country. The ‘Boriswave’ was larger than previously thought For a start, the ‘Boriswave’ was larger than previously thought. When Brits are excluded, net migration is now thought to have peaked at over one million people in the year to March 2023 – some 110,000 higher than the previously estimated record high. Including Brits, there was a substantial downgrade in the revision.
19 min listen
Economics editor Michael Simmons and Yvette Cooper's former adviser Danny Shaw join Patrick Gibbons to react to the Home Secretary's plans for asylum reform. Shabana Mahmood's direct communication style in the Commons yesterday has been praised by government loyalists and right-wingers alike, but her plans have been criticised by figures on the left as apeing Reform. Will her calculated risk pay off and how will success be judged? Plus, as ONS migration figures are revised – again – Michael restates his appeal for more reliable data. And how could migration data affect the budget next week? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.
30 min listen
Advertising legend and Spectator columnist Rory Sutherland joins Michael Simmons to explain why he thinks Britain’s economic problem isn’t income, tax rates or even inequality — it’s property, rent extraction, and a national belief that housing is the safest and smartest place to store wealth.
There were cheers in the Treasury in September when statisticians found an unexpected £2 billion ‘down the back of the sofa.’ The tax man had underreported VAT receipts to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and it meant Britain’s borrowing figures for the current year had been overestimated. A lucky discovery for HMT but an indictment of Britain’s statistical systems. At the ONS headquarters in Newport, morale is collapsing. The agency, long criticised for data blunders, has become a symbol of a deeper crisis: Britain’s economic numbers can no longer be trusted. Across government, the data infrastructure that underpins policymaking is crumbling.
13 min listen
Britain is facing a quiet crisis — its data is breaking down, and the government’s numbers are increasingly unreliable. In this episode of Reality Check, economics editor Michael Simmons asks what happens when the state can’t count properly. How can the Bank of England set interest rates or the Treasury balance the books when the data they rely on is wrong? And why are so many “official” statistics now being stripped of their trusted status?
14 min listen
With two weeks until her Budget, Rachel Reeves has received more bad news: unemployment is now at its highest level since the pandemic. With the Chancellor hinting at income tax rises, could this be dangerous for Labour as it increasingly becomes the party of higher earners? Polling suggests the public would lay the blame for tax hikes with Reeves, despite her speech last week. With threats from a resurgent Green party to the left and Reform to the right, is there an obvious path forward for Labour to win back voters? James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Scarlett Maguire. Produced by Megan McElroy and James Lewis.
Britain's unemployment rate has hit 5 per cent – the highest level since the pandemic. Figures, just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), also show 117,000 payrolled jobs wiped out in the last year. The hiring slowdown seems to be getting worse as what was initially a reaction to the Chancellor’s £25 billion raid on employer National Insurance now turns into fears about the coming Budget. Meanwhile, wage growth continued to ease, although it still remains well above inflation. Wages were up 4.8 per cent across the economy compared to last year, with pay rises doing considerably better in the public sector. However, if wage growth slows again this month then it could mean we see a rate cut from the Bank of England just in time for Christmas.
A year ago, the Chancellor called her £38 billion tax rise a ‘one-and-done’ move. Now she looks set to rinse and repeat, with reports that a 2p increase in income tax is on the table. According to The Times, she has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility that a rise in personal taxation is one of the ‘major measures’ she will announce. This is the strongest signal yet that she will break Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase income tax rates. What does this mean for the Chancellor, and taxpayers? Elsewhere, David Lammy suffered a disastrous Deputy Prime Minister's Questions after dodging questions on whether there had been another prisoner let out by mistake.
12 min listen
With three weeks until the Budget, the main political parties have been setting out their economic thinking. Each faces the same bind: anaemic growth, fiscal constraints and uncomfortable exposure to the bond markets. The upshot is that there is less ‘clear blue water’ on the economy between Labour, the Conservatives and Reform. This has left a space for energy to emerge as the policy area in which to differentiate the parties in this new era of five-party politics. The Westminster energy consensus is over – Net Zero is not as popular as it once was – and the parties are setting out their stalls. Could energy win the next election? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons.
The Bank of England has held interest rates at four per cent. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted five to four in favour of maintaining the rate. There had been some speculation that the Bank might consider a cut to pre-empt some of the harshest measures expected in this month’s Budget, but the rate-setting committee chose to align with market expectations, which had widely anticipated a hold. Alongside the rates announcement, the MPC released their quarterly Monetary Policy Report which set the blame for inflation squarely at the Chancellor’s door. ‘Unusually large increases in administered price, such as Vehicle Excise Duty, and sewerage charges, are currently estimated to account for 0.4 percentage points of the overshoot in CPI inflation from target.
11 min listen
It is three weeks until the Budget – and Rachel Reeves wants to get her narrative out there. The Chancellor held an early morning press conference today to, in her words, ‘set out the circumstances and the principles’ guiding her thinking on 26 November. Her speech followed a familiar pattern. First, there was the evisceration of the ‘austerity’, ‘reckless borrowing’ and ‘stop go of public investment’ which characterised the last 14 years. In her 25-minute speech in Downing Street, one line in particular stood out: ‘If we are to build the future of Britain together’, Reeves said, ‘we will all have to contribute to that effort. Each of us must do our bit.
22 min listen
Rachel Reeves is preparing for her first major Budget – but is Brexit really to blame for Britain’s black hole? Host Michael Simmons speaks to independent economist Julian Jessop about the OBR’s productivity downgrade, Labour’s tax plans, and whether Reeves is right to point the finger at Brexit.
15 min listen
With Reform leading in the polls, Nigel Farage is determined to ensure that nothing can impede its growth. This morning he sought to bolster his credibility on an area that the Tories think could be his Achilles heel: the economy. Reform’s £90 billion programme of tax cuts promised at the last election has been constantly used as a stick with which to beat its leader. So today, Farage took to the stage in the City, to – once again – formally bury ‘Our Contract with You’ – the platform on which he was elected in July last year. This morning’s speech was all about Reform claiming the mantle of fiscal conservatism and claiming that the party can be trusted with the nation’s savings. Who will win the battle to be the party of fiscal credibility?
15 min listen
Happy All Hallows’ Eve, everyone – and there is something spooky going on with Rachel Reeves and a property in Dulwich. Yesterday she was leading the news after admitting to renting out her family home following the move into No. 11 without getting the required licence from Southwark Council. There are a number of mitigating circumstances – not least the fact that the lettings agent said they would obtain the licence – but the Prime Minister has been forced to put out a statement. He backs her, for now, but will he come to regret that? Listen for a rare defence of Rachel Reeves on this podcast from our economics editor.
