Matthew Lynn

WH Smith is opting for the oldest trick in the corporate playbook. It is changing its name. It might have been better to get some new carpets – or at least to freshen up some of the display counters. As the chain's high street shops are sold off, they will be rebranded as TG Jones, whoever the heck he was. Sure, a few nostalgics might mourn the passing of one of the oldest names on the British high street. And yet, the blunt truth is that the brand was already dead – and no one will miss it now.  If you want to buy some over-priced water, or pick up a chocolate orange from WH Smith, they will still be operating at train stations and airports.

It was hardly the message Chancellor Rachel Reeves would have been looking for a day before a Spring Statement which could well make or break her political career. The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, delivered a speech yesterday warning that growth was going to prove very hard over the next five years. The Governor is completely right to emphasise how hard it will be to expand the economy. But he should be making the case for far more radical reforms. If he won't, no one else will. Bailey is staying within the ‘managed decline’ consensus To paraphrase PG Wodehouse on Scotsmen, ‘the difference between the Governor and a ray of sunshine is not hard to detect’.

Tariffs would destroy supply chains and drive up inflation. Elon Musk’s savage cuts would bring the government machine grinding to a halt. And chaotic policy making would drive investors out of the United States. As the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all fell sharply over the last month, there were plenty of factors driving the “Trump Slump,” as it became known on Wall Street. But hold on. Sure, equities have corrected. But right now it looks as if the rout is already over, and the markets have steadied again.  Last week, US stocks finished in positive territory for the first time in a month, chalking up modest gains over five trading days. On Monday, they carried on climbing, with the Dow up by more than 500 points, and the Nasdaq by more than 300.

The pound has not collapsed. You can still trade shares, bonds and currencies in the City of London. And inflation, while still high, at least doesn’t come with ‘hyper’ as a prefix, at least not yet. If the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey wants to celebrate today's fifth anniversary of taking charge of the UK’s central bank he can at least reflect on a few modest achievements. The trouble is, they are very limited. In reality, Bailey has proved a poor if not catastrophic Governor – and everyone in the City knows it. When Bailey took over, he was the antithesis of his predecessor.

Growth has ground to a halt, manufacturing is collapsing, and the government is desperately scratching around for ways to save some money so it can balance the books. There is not much to make anyone feel optimistic about the state of the British economy right now. Except, that is, for the healthy performance of the UK’s traditional, mid-market retailers. Marks & Spencer and Tesco are both in rude health. Now, John Lewis, which has reported a rise in pre-tax profits of 73 per cent to £97 million, is the latest retailer to demonstrate its ability to bounce back.  After years of steep losses under the hapless leadership of the former civil servant Dame Sharon White, John Lewis has finally turned the corner.

There ‘could be a recession’, said President Trump over the weekend with the kind of nonchalant shrug that suggested he was not too bothered one way or the other. He was even going to buy a Tesla to help out his ‘first buddy’ Elon Musk as the company’s share price collapsed. The markets had assumed there was a ‘Trump put’ – that is the President would always ride to the rescue to keep the bull market running. But there is no sign of it. Instead Trump seems perfectly relaxed about the huge losses, even encouraging the sell-off. Of course, it might just that he does not know what to do. But it is also possible that he wants a correction if not a full-blown crash, and is happy to see the indices fall. It has been a very rough few days for Wall Street.

Germany has finally decided to join the party – but Europe may come to regret it. After two decades of limited borrowing and fiscal restraint, Europe's biggest economy is finally joining the high-debt club. Incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz will borrow €800 billion (£670 million), and perhaps much more, to pay for extra spending on defence and infrastructure. Sure, Germany needs to spend more on its armed forces and on restructuring its economy. But it will also likely mean the euro-zone no longer has a single solvent member to anchor it. It is hard to see how this situation will end well for Europe. Merz is a centre-right, pro-business leader, but you might not know that from his decision to start borrowing on a massive scale.

President Trump was very bullish about his decision over the weekend to create a 'crypto reserve'. It will legitimise crypto currencies, he said. It will turn the United States into the global hub for trade. And it will build the national wealth. In effect, the American government will build up a stock of Bitcoin and other digital currencies, much like the gold held in Fort Knox. But Trump's promise is too good to be true: it is a dangerous scam. Trump's crypto reserve will be wide open to market manipulation by the tech tycoons around him 'I will make sure the US is the Crypto Capital of the World,' Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'We are MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

It would encourage digitally savvy entrepreneurs. It would be a hub for artificial intelligence. And it would encourage a wave of new companies, replacing the ageing giants of French industry. When Emmanuel Macron became president, turning the country into ‘le start-up’ nation was central to his mission to modernise the economy. In fairness, he had some success. And yet with one of the world’s most punishing wealth taxes passed by the National Assembly last week it is about to be killed stone-dead. It was always slightly implausible for a country best known for its long lunches, short working week, endless holidays, and generous early retirement ages, but Macron was determined to create a start-up culture in France.

The Labour government was pinning everything on an ambitious industrial strategy to boost growth. It was meant to make the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7, reboot the economy, raise real wages and generate all the extra tax revenues that were going to pay for improved public services. The trouble is, there is not much sign of it. First we were told that it would be published in the spring, and now it has emerged that we will have to wait until June to finally see it. It is increasingly hard to avoid the conclusion that it may not actually exist.  Today’s GDP figures will have come as a small reprieve for Chancellor Rachel Reeves. A 0.1 per cent expansion for the last quarter was at least a positive figure, even if only just.