Matthew Lynn

Matthew Lynn is a financial columnist and author of ‘Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis’ and ‘The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031’

Don’t blame Trump for the crypto crash

From our UK edition

Hundreds of billions have been wiped off the value of the crypto currencies. A prominent Ukrainian blogger and influencer on digital coins has been found dead. And traders are bracing themselves for a rocky start to trading on Monday as markets start to tumble. We will have to see whether it develops into a full-blown crash or not. And yet, all the major equity indices were already wildly overvalued, and a correction was always inevitable – it was just a question of when it would start.  There may well be a rough few days ahead for investors. An estimated $400 billion was wiped off the value of the main crypto currencies on Friday evening, while the Nasdaq dropped by more than 800 points, or 3.

Why gold is at an all-time high

Gold is in the middle of what looks like an unstoppable bull run. It has already punched through $4,000 an ounce. At the rate the price is rising, it may well go to $5,000 within a few weeks, and perhaps even $6,000 as the next year unfolds. There have been lots of different explanations for this, from the looming collapse of the dollar, to secret Chinese buying, to the conspiracy theories circulating on the wilder fringes of the internet, such a secret plot to re-establish the gold standard, or attempts to replace all the metal that is meant to be stored at Fort Knox, America’s official gold reserve, which apparently went missing decades ago. But the real explanation is very simple: it is the only way to hedge against soaring government debt.

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Britain’s steel industry must die

From our UK edition

It already faced tariffs in the United States, and it has been struggling to cope with some of the highest industrial energy prices in the world. Now what remains of the British steel industry faces what could well be a terminal blow. The European Union is about to impose tariffs of 50 per cent on steel imported from the UK. Labour ministers will no doubt start cobbling together rescue packages, and trying to devise a new strategy to rescue the industry. But perhaps it would be best just to be honest – and let the industry die.  The EU has set out plans to cut the amount of steel imported into the bloc by half, and impose 50 per cent tariffs on anything over the quota. The reason is simple.

Britain can’t afford to lose AstraZeneca

From our UK edition

It has already cancelled investments in Liverpool and Cambridge, while muttering darkly about moving its listing to New York and its headquarters to the United States. Now AstraZeneca, the UK’s largest pharmaceutical company, is threatening to stop investing in Britain completely if the country does not spend more on medicine. There may be an element of arm-twisting in that, and the NHS is so stretched for cash it can’t easily spend much more on drugs. And yet, the UK also can’t afford to lose a company as significant as AZ. And if that means the NHS spending more on pills, and less on salaries, that is a choice worth making.  If that means the NHS spending more on pills, and less on salaries, that is a choice worth making.

Ed Miliband can’t ban fracking forever

From our UK edition

He wasn’t able to announce the £300 off household energy bills that was promised during the election campaign. Nor could he unveil any massive new solar farms or wind turbines. Still, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband did have one message to cheer the party faithful in his conference speech today: he is going to ban shale oil and gas for all time. 'Let's ban fracking and send the frackers packing,' he thundered. But can Miliband really do that and outlaw fracking forever? Only a fool would pretend that he can. Right now, there is a moratorium on extracting shale oil and gas in the UK, which could, in theory anyway, be lifted at any time by a new minister. With Reform pledging to lift it, and way ahead in the polls, that is no longer a far-flung prospect.

Will Trump turn Gaza into the ‘Riviera of the Middle East’?

From our UK edition

There are plenty of legitimate questions to be asked about the Trump-Blair peace plan for ending the conflict with Israel. Will Hamas ever agree to it? Will any peace deal hold? Will the wider Middle East get behind it? And will Sir Tony Blair ever be able to overcome the legacy of his earlier military adventures in the region to establish any kind of authority? But there is also another question that we must ask. If this peace does hold, can Trump and Blair turn Gaza into a cross between Dubai and Singapore – or is that completely deluded? All the immediate attention will, of course, be on whether this new deal actually ends the fighting. We will find out over the next few weeks.

Reeves needs to save the London Stock Exchange

From our UK edition

Flutter, the gambling giant that owns Paddy Power, has already London, and the British chip designer ARM decided to float in New York. There have been reports that AstraZeneca may move its listing too. Now we learn that even Goldman Sachs may be giving up on the City, as it delists Petershill, the majority-owned investment vehicle it launched almost 20 years ago, from the London Stock Exchange. The City is facing extinction, but there is still no sign that the Chancellor Rachel Reeves will do anything to rescue it. It is a slow-moving car crash Petershill was launched in 2007, and listed on the stock market in 2021, to offer retail inventors a slice of private equity and hedge funds.

Why Trump shouldn’t bail out Milei

From our UK edition

At the OECD, the IMF, and at Davos, there will probably be a few wry smiles, and a sense of Schadenfreude. Javier Milei, the chainsaw-wielding libertarian President of Argentina who promised to destroy the economic establishment by cutting taxes and dramatically reducing the size of the state, is now facing a financial crisis of his own. The United States is offering to step in with a bailout, but why? Milei should sink or swim in the markets he champions. A rescue package from the Trump administration will prove a mistake.  It is turning into the toughest week yet for the Milei experiment. After setbacks in local elections, the currency markets have lost faith, the peso has plunged, and that will make it very hard to finance the country’s huge debts.

Rachel Reeves’s ‘taxi tax’ plans show how desperate she is

From our UK edition

It will at least give the cabbies something to genuinely complain about. Amid all the wheezes that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is plotting to fix the ‘black hole’ in the public finances, she is now considering a ‘taxi tax’. Ahead of November's Budget, it has been floated that VAT may well be applied on all cab rides. But this plan is likely to end up backfiring badly on Reeves – and the government more broadly.  According to reports this week, the Chancellor is likely to impose a blanket 20 per cent rate of VAT on all taxi rides. Right now, taxi firms outside of London do not have to charge VAT because drivers are classed as self-employed, and most don’t hit the £90,000 annual threshold at which the tax has to be levied.

Trump’s steel tariffs will hurt Britain

From our UK edition

Over the course of President Trump’s state visit, we can expect lots of investments by the giants of American industry to be unveiled. Microsoft will announce $30 billion (£22 billion) of investment in new artificial intelligence hubs and tech infrastructure. Google will pump £5 billion into AI in Britain, which presumably means getting some robots to sit in the British Library reading room for a few months until all the content has been scraped. Perhaps by the end of the week, even McDonald's will have announced plans for a new food court on the A30. But for all the celebration, there will be no progress on the only deal that matters – and that will prove very expensive for the taxpayer indeed.

Elon Musk’s Tesla investment is a big gamble

From our UK edition

Tesla does not look like a great investment right now. The competition from better and cheaper Chinese electric vehicles is savage and Elon Musk's outspoken political views have tarnished the brand, at least among the eco-conscious liberals who first adopted it. And yet, Musk has just spent $1 billion (£733 million) of his own money on its shares. His investment only makes sense as a bet on its robotics unit – but that is still very high risk for the company's pugnacious CEO.  No one could ever accuse Musk of not putting his money where his mouth is. While Tesla may be under more pressure than ever, yesterday he sank his own money into buying more shares to add to his existing 15 per cent stake in the company.

Can Trump force Nato to get tough on Russian sanctions?

From our UK edition

The pipelines would be sealed off. The supertankers would be left in the ports, and the wells would have to be capped. When Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, it was confidently assumed that sanctions on Moscow's oil and gas industry would be so punishing for its fragile economy that it would quickly force Vladimir Putin to plead for a settlement. Unfortunately, it has not worked out like that. Instead, the sanctions against Russia have been widely flouted. In response, President Trump has demaned that Nato makes them stick. But would sanctions really work and cripple Putin's war machine?  President Trump was in typically robust form. Over the weekend, he demanded that the rest of Nato enforce the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia.

Even John Lewis is struggling in this Labour economy

From our UK edition

It is a worker’s cooperative. It promotes sustainability, emphasises its social responsibility, invests in its people, and, of course, has an attractive range of home accessories in every shade of beige you could possibly imagine. If the government is looking for a company that symbolises the kind of economy that Labour is trying to champion it would surely be John Lewis. But hold on. It turns out that even Labour’s favourite chain has been hammered by the tax raid in the last budget. And if even John Lewis can’t survive all the extra costs the party has imposed on business then who can. The losses perfectly illustrate the shambolic incompetence of Labour’s economic ‘plan’.

Brits are fed up with overpriced coffee

From our UK edition

We don't lead the world in Artificial Intelligence. We can't keep up with the Chinese in making electric vehicles, and as for building high speed trains it is best not to ask. Still, there was one sector of the global economy where the British were world beaters. When it came to making ridiculously expensive milky caffeine-based drinks our entrepreneurs could match anyone. But hold on. There are now signs that Britain has turned its back on overpriced coffee – and the chains are running into trouble. The real problem is that the chains are charging way too much for a product that is not actually very good Pret a Manger is no longer the booming business it once was. It has emerged that its owner JAB, which bought it from the private equity firm Bridgepoint for £1.

The markets don’t trust Keir Starmer

From our UK edition

The pound is starting to slide. Gold is punching through record highs, and long-term gilt yields are hitting levels that have not been seen in thirty years. It is not a Liz Truss style crisis, at least not yet, although it is worth noting that the price the government has to pay to borrow money is way above the levels it reached when the former prime minister ‘crashed’ the economy. But it is starting to become painfully apparent that the Labour government is rapidly losing the confidence of the financial markets. It is yet another nervous week for the economy. The yield on 30-year gilts, the best long-term measure of the solvency of the British state, rose yet again on Tuesday morning, hitting 5.68 per cent, its highest level in 27 years.

Topshop’s return doesn’t mean the high street is safe

From our UK edition

You probably won’t see Kate Moss gossiping with a Spice Girl or two by the changing rooms, but for anyone nostalgic for the 1990s, there will be at least one treat to look forward to. Topshop is back. There is just one catch. Sure, it might be able to carve out a niche for itself. But in the face of a blizzard of tax rises, it can’t save the high street.  It is not exactly a return to the glory days, when its stores dominated every high street and suburban mall, but from this weekend you will be able to buy Topshop- and Topman-labelled clothes from a concession at the West End department store Liberty. A full-scale return to bricks-and-mortar stores is being hinted at by the chain, now owned by the online retailer Asos, and the Danish retailer Heartland. It is not completely alone.

Can India’s economy survive Trump’s tariffs?

From our UK edition

President Trump's 50 per cent tariffs on India kicked in yesterday. The timing could not be worse: in May, India overtook Britain, Germany and Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world. According to a report by EY only this week, it was already set to become the second largest globally by 2038, behind only China. After a decade of liberalisation and rapid industrialisation, it has witnessed exceptionally strong growth. And now, it looks like Donald Trump may kill off the Indian economic miracle. Over the last twenty years, India’s growth has averaged 6.9 per cent, a rate that puts almost every other country in the world firmly in second place.

Is France about to trigger the next financial crash?

From our UK edition

Its debts are out of control. There is very little space left to raise taxes any further. And the political establishment can’t agree on anything apart from postponing the whole issue for another year or two. It is a description that could apply to plenty of countries, and not least the UK. But right now, it is one that applies most acutely to France. With yet another government about to fall, and the CAC-40 stock market index falling sharply, the real question is this: will Paris be the centre of the next financial crash? The French prime minister François Bayrou yesterday took the plucky, if foolish, decision to recall parliament on 8 September for a vote of confidence.

What’s the point of nationalising our steel plants?

From our UK edition

We already have Great British Energy, and of course Great British Rail. It now looks as very soon we will also have Great British Steel. The government has today stepped in to rescue another failing metal producer, Speciality Steels in South Yorkshire. It is, in effect, creating a new state-owned steel conglomerate. There is just one catch. It is the government’s incompetently designed net-zero targets that are responsible for bankrupting the industry – and all that nationalising will achieve is making taxpayers responsible for endless losses. The government is, in effect, bankrupting the companies and then stepping in to rescue them Britain’s third largest steel works, Speciality Steelworks, today collapsed into administration.

Why is Dale Vince comparing Tesla to the Ku Klux Klan?

From our UK edition

Perhaps its cars automatically run down people of the wrong colour? Or its batteries will only charge if you put a white hood over the socket? It is hard to know what exactly the green energy tycoon Dale Vince is thinking by comparing Tesla to the Ku Klux Klan. The comparison is so ridiculously over-the-top, it suggests that Vince has something else in mind. He is terrified of Elon Musk’s company giving him some real competition in the British market – and instead of competing on price or service is trying to block him from the market instead.  Tesla has applied to Ofgem for an electricity supply licence that will allow it to sell power directly to people's homes. It will be competing with giants such as British Gas, and of course Vince’s own company, Ecotricity.