Matthew Lynn

It might seem like smart politics. And it will reassure the markets. The legislation in the King’s Speech today to ensure all Budgets are assessed by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) no doubt seems like a good idea right now. And yet, there is a catch. The incoming Labour government has now completed the job started by Gordon Brown as chancellor back in 1997, and completely outsourced economic policy to ‘independent experts’. At some point, it is going to regret that decision. It is not hard to understand why the powers of the OBR have been increased in the King’s Speech unveiled today.

A major new factory from one of the American tech giants perhaps? Or a new lab from one of the pharmaceutical giants? Or, best of all, a huge new green energy fund. The newly appointed Chancellor Rachel Reeves was probably hoping for some positive investment news for her first week in office, especially as she has decided, in an unprecedented move, to make ‘growth’ a ‘national mission’. Instead, one of the UK’s best businesses has cut almost a third of its UK workforce – and that will just be the start of the corporate exodus from Labour’s Britain. Dyson will argue that its decision to axe 1,000 jobs in the UK, announced today had nothing to do with the election of a new government. It had been planned for months. Well, perhaps.

Rishi Sunak's bags are probably packed. The plane tickets are booked. And no doubt he has found somewhere for the family to stay while they look for a permanent home. It is widely assumed that, having lost the election, Sunak will soon disappear to Silicon Valley as quickly as possible to restart his career. But hold on. Sure, it is easy to understand why Sunak would want to get as far away as possible from the car crash he has presided over. Yet after running one of the most spectacularly inept election campaigns in history, will the tech giants still want him?

If you didn’t have time to watch the presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden last night you could have just watched the share price of a little-known Chinese company called Wisesoft instead. Its Chinese name ‘Chuan Da Zhi Sheng’ sounds very like ‘Trump Wins Big’ in Mandarin, and local speculators piled in as it became clear just how catastrophically the incumbent had performed. In reality, that verdict is going to be repeated when Wall Street opens later today. Investors, though, have already made up their minds. Trump is going to win, and nothing can change that now.  The markets are already buying up all the assets that will benefit from a Trump victory in November It was probably the most painful TV debate any of us have ever watched.

Big business will be brought onside. The bond markets will be mollified. And there will be plenty of reassuring words about dealing with the budget deficit. With the first round of voting in France’s parliamentary elections set for this week, Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National is preparing for government. This week it has set out a programme designed to keep investors, if not exactly happy, at least under control. There is just one catch. It is also a programme for stagnation – and that means France’s out-of-control debts are going to grow and grow.

When Paris overtook London as the continent’s largest stock market two years ago, it was widely seen as a significant milestone in Britain’s relative decline. It was a sign of the City of London’s weakness – and it was evidence that the UK’s departure from the European Union was slowly destroying its once powerful financial markets. But hold on. This week, London has reclaimed top spot. French president Emmanuel Macron’s high-risk gamble on a general election has already backfired, at least financially, and he has now gifted financial leadership back to London.  Thanks to France's president, the smart money is leaving Europe On Monday, the total value of all the equities quoted on the London market hit $3.18 trillion (£2.5 trillion), compared with $3.13 trillion (£2.

As Emmanuel Macron heads into a fraught election, France's president is repeatedly warning voters of the calamitous consequences of electing Marine Le Pen’s National Rally into government. In doing so, he is effectively weaponising the bond market. His allies point to what unfolded under Liz Truss's government. The message to voters is clear: don't even think about. The debt crisis is largely of Macron’s own making Throwing a ‘grenade’ at those considering backing National Rally might be smart politics, but it is very dangerous economics – and the consequences may be catastrophic for the country he leads. You can hardly blame Macron for panicking: his decision to call a snap general election last week does not appear to be working out very well.

It has impeccable green credentials. It is crucial to the country’s power grid. And it is one of the UK’s largest private companies. A floatation of Octopus Energy should have been just the kind of event that would give the London Stock Exchange a much needed boost. And yet it now emerges that it may well choose a rival market to list its shares. If that happens, it will accelerate the City’s decline into global irrelevance – and an incoming Labour government may well finish it off.  It is probably the worst news the London market could have had. The chief executive of the giant Octopus Energy, the largest electricity supplier in the UK, revealed today that the company might list elsewhere.

It is possible that President Macon had some clever plan when he called a general election in the wake of catastrophic European election results last night. After all, he has a reputation for always being several moves ahead on the political chessboard. And yet one point is surely clear. France can’t afford a Le Pen government – and its election may well trigger a crisis in the French debt markets.  Le Pen, after all, is a high welfare, big state, economic nationalist It is, perhaps, not quite such a foregone result as Britain’s election a few days earlier. And yet after the second round of voting on 7 July, it looks almost certain that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally will emerge as the largest party in the French parliament, and will be able to form a government.

We don’t know much about what taxes she will impose. Nor do we have many clues as to how she will boost growth, or find the money to improve public services. Still, not to worry. It turns out that we can, at least according to her feed on X, trust the shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves to ‘run the economy’ for a very simple reason. She used to work at the Bank of England, and apparently they know about that kind of stuff over there. There is just one problem. In reality the Bank is not as brilliant as Reeves seems to think it is – and it is questionable, to put it mildly, if working for it really qualifies you for anything. For anyone wondering if the Labour government is likely to improve the UK’s dismal economic outlook, Reeves had some reassuring words this weekend.

It more than doubled its sales. It unveiled a new line of microchips. It promised to keep rolling out new products for the next few years. In the end, Nvidia, the chip manufacturer, delivered the kind of blockbuster results that traders and investors had been waiting for. Yesterday’s ‘Nvidia Day’ (as the company’s quarterly results days are now known on Wall Street) turned out to be better than even the most bullish investor could have hoped for. There is just one snag. The company is now powering the bull market. If anything goes wrong with its turbo-charged expansion, it will bring equities down with it. It’s great for the moment There was no question that it was an impressive set of figures.

Another day, another all time high. As the week closed, the FTSE 100 index hit 8,433 — the highest level it has ever reached — and this is turning into a regular occurrence. The FTSE has now hit 11 all-time-highs over the last month, and it is close to equalling the record set way back in 1984 of 12 all-time-highs within a single four-week period. Add in a mega-bid and better than expected growth figures and it may look as if the UK is booming again. Well, perhaps. In reality, however, all that is happening is that the FTSE 100 is finally recovering from two decades of miserable under-performance — and it would have to go a lot higher to break any real records.  The FTSE 100 would have to go a lot higher to break any real records.

Javier Milei was taking too many risks. Argentina’s president didn’t have enough political support. And his radical version of free market economics didn’t offer any solutions anyway, especially in a world where the state is more crucial than ever. When Milei won the presidency last year there were plenty of predictions that he would fare as well as Britain’s Liz Truss. And yet, there are signs the medicine is starting to work – and that will be globally significant.   Over the past couple of weeks, the data coming out of Argentina has been far better than anyone expected. This month, inflation is forecast to dip below 10 per cent – admittedly a month-on-month figure – compared with a high of close on 300 per cent earlier this year.