Matthew Dancona

Fraser is right that Quentin Davies is where he should always have been. But – as he acknowledges in his update - defections matter because of their symbolism; and, symbolically, it is truly remarkable that the traffic (at Westminster, rather than local level) is still from the Tories to Labour.  It is almost 12 years since Alan Howarth defected to Labour in October 1995, to be followed by Peter Temple-Morris, Shaun Woodward and Robert Jackson (January 2005). This Gang of Four defected over a decade because they believed the Tory Party was irretrievably right-wing and that New Labour now represented the mainstream.

Busted: that is the word that springs to mind reading this morning’s Independent on Sunday splash, which provides, for the first time, documentary evidence that Blair was hoping to move Brown from the Treasury after the 2005 election. Hope, of course, is the word, because as John Rentoul explains in his Sindy column, the weakened Blair was never going to get away with this plan: by 2005 he needed Brown’s imprimatur desperately. And so, here we are today, with Gordon about to become leader of the Labour Party in Manchester. Who will be his deputy?

“A flagrant breach of a solemn promise”: that’s how William Hague just described Gordon Brown’s declaration (on the BBC’s Politics Show) that no referendum is necessary on the new EU deal. The experts will argue over the precise extent of jurisprudential overlap between the 2004 Constitution and the freshly-minted 2007 “Reform” agreement. But this will be settled by politics, not legal knowledge. Are the voters willing to accept Gordon’s assertion that no referendum is needed – yes or no? Thus he faces the first test of his authority, and of the nation’s trust in their new Prime Minister. It’s a daunting one.

My column in this month’s GQ is on politics and the web - timely, as Joe Trippi, Howard Dean’s online guru, is in town this week. And do have a look at the GQ website: one of the best and liveliest around.

The proposed anti-terror laws, as I write in today's Sunday Telegraph, are an example of how Brown will, to an extent many will find surprising, persist with Blair's policies. This particular area, as is clear from the Observer's coverage, is fraught with difficulty. Cameron knows that Brown cannot afford to be defeated in the Commons, as Blair was over 90 days. So the game is to claim, again and again, that Labour is breaching the political "consensus" on counter-terrorism. Of course, there is no such thing: Labour is much more authoritarian than either the Tories or the Lib Dem on how to deal with jihadis. But Dave's gambit is to present Blair now, and Brown soon, as the opportunists. The stakes are vertiginously high.

A worrying poll for Dave in today's Sunday Telegraph. It's not all bad news for the Tories: they still have a five point lead on voting intention (though it should be much wider), and Dave is seen as more forward-looking, more caring and (by an impressive margin) more inspiring. He also trounces Brown as a likeable chap (56 per cent versus Gordon's 27). But Brown is streets ahead on strength, competence and (less revealingly) experience. Witness a remarkable role reversal. Labour used be seen as nice, but ineffective and weak; the Tories, in Maurice Saatchi's memorable phrase were "cruel but competent". Now it's the other way round. And it's no accident that Brown was talking tough yesterday on law and order.

I said we would stand our ground on grammar schools - on all fronts. See my piece in today's Sunday Telegraph, which discloses Tory plans to select by race, but not brains. The Tories are doing their best to close down the row: Liam Fox also has a piece in the Sunday Telegraph, as does David Cameron in the Mail on Sunday. But as Coffee House hero, Rocky Balboa, would say: It ain't over till it's over.

Tim Montgomerie has a piece in today’s Daily Telegraph which should cause anxiety in Conservative Party HQ. Tim – reasonable and eloquent as ever – explains why the grammar school row was not the triumph of party management we are assured it was by the Cameroons. A warning to be noted.