Martin Vander Weyer

It gives me no pleasure to say I told you so. ‘If [Donald Trump] is prepared to cause mayhem in global trade as his first move, he’s even more dangerous than his detractors thought,’ I wrote in February. ‘British commentators of the “Why can’t we have visionary maverick musclemen like Trump?” persuasion should be careful what they wish for.’ And in November, ahead of the presidential election, I wrote that gold could have ‘more upside ahead’ while bitcoin holders would be wise to take profits – advice that looked wildly wrong in December but finally came right with gold at an all-time high and the cryptocurrency suffering its worst first quarter for a decade.

‘You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs’ is a maxim attributed to leaders on both sides of the French Revolution. ‘Move fast and break things’ is today’s equivalent, emanating from Silicon Valley and amply demonstrated by Donald Trump and Elon Musk in their approach to government and geopolitics. ‘You can’t make omelettes at all if you can’t afford eggs’ might be the next variant: inflation and scarcity afflicting America’s favourite breakfast have become a major political issue. In brief, a dozen US eggs used to cost $2 or less but by January this year the supermarket price was $5 and rising – in some places $9 was reported, rationing had to be introduced and Mexican suppliers were spotted smuggling truckloads across the border.

I’ve been judging a beauty parade, but I hasten to add that no bikinis were involved. Four leading investment firms were competing for the mandate to manage a charitable endowment – and offering insights into the way professional stock-pickers see the world. First, despite (or if you’re a disciple, because of) the madness of Donald Trump, any portfolio designed for even a moderate-risk UK investor will be heavily weighted towards US tech and consumer stocks. On the other hand, none of the pitches said anything about China or other previously fashionable emerging markets. And their lack of enthusiasm for pure UK equities (as opposed to London-listed multinationals) was impossible to disguise.

Among British car factories, Nissan at Sunderland is the most productive and Jaguar Land Rover at Solihull probably the most advanced. As for industrial landmarks, the former British Leyland complex at Longbridge is reduced to a research and development facility for Chinese-owned MG; but ‘Plant Oxford’ at Cowley, the original home of Morris Motors now owned by BMW of Germany, still produces 1,000 Minis per day. And BMW’s decision to halt a £600 million project to build electric Minis there is, I fear, a moment of destiny for the whole UK auto industry. The truth is that the transition to electric cars has descended into chaos. Total UK car production in 2024 was at its lowest (in non-pandemic conditions) since 1954.

If the new Trump era has a theme, it’s one of quixotic disruption with random consequences. In that spirit, stand by for more interventions from activist shareholders seeking to electrify sluggish businesses while making fast bucks on the way through. The first episode over here was the attack by the New York investor Boaz Weinstein on seven London-listed investment trusts, in which he acquired stakes and forced shareholder votes to replace board members, with the aim of taking the trusts’ assets under the management of his own firm, Saba Capital. ‘Go home! You’re selfish and wasteful,’ shouted one headline after Weinstein was emphatically defeated in all seven polls.

The Chancellor’s appeal to regulators last month for suggestions to boost growth was mocked as evidence that the government itself is hopelessly bereft of ideas. Might as well ask traffic wardens to devise urban regeneration schemes, we scoffed, or food safety inspectors to plan state banquets. But it made sense to the extent that smarter regulation really should have the potential to boost economic activity – and there are signs the message has got through. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks of using Brexit freedoms to shield smaller UK banks from ‘Basel rules’ that would require them to hold larger reserves.

I long to write less about Rachel Reeves and more about world-beating British businesses – such as Brompton, the folding bicycle maker whose fortunes I have followed since I bought the product and interviewed the founder-designer, Andrew Ritchie, 20 years ago. The latest Brompton news was that profits collapsed from £11 million in 2023 to breakeven for the year to March 2024 in the teeth of a post-pandemic demand slump; and that additional hiring has been put on hold after Labour’s NI increase added ‘hundreds of thousands of pounds’ of extra costs. A move from cramped west London premises to a new base at Ashford in Kent, with room for big increases in output and skilled jobs, had already been deferred to 2029.

I was intending to write one of those ‘Ten tips to change your life’ lists that fill so many column inches at this drab time of year. But I got no further than ‘Buy bigger trousers’. Instead, I’ll tackle some of the obvious questions you might be asking as you watch snow turn to slush and wait for the boiler repair bloke to answer his phone. Can I cheer you up? Let’s see. First, will 2025 be a good year to buy a new home (a decision that should always be taken on at least a five-year time horizon)? Pundits see house prices going up (and mortgage rates eventually coming down) in 2025, but not by much. More usefully, Savills predicts 23.

Headed for ‘the worst of all worlds’ is not where any of us would wish to find ourselves at the start of the new year. But that was the phrase used by the CBI economist Alpesh Paleja to sum up the predictions of member businesses – of reduced hiring and output, rising prices and weak growth. Since that survey, a revision to zero of the official growth figure for the third quarter of 2024 and reports of depressed pre- and post-Christmas consumer spending have provoked even darker whispers of a return to recession. Whence cometh such pessimism? Has it bubbled out of the Tories’ black hole of fiscal shame? Can we blame the Bank of England and the Treasury ‘blob’? Or the rare alignment of planets that’s expected in three weeks’ time?